December Banter 2019

[cbmclean]

1 minute ago, Wonderdog said:

I just asked a question about the frequency. It's doesn't seem to me it's very often. Anyway, don't worry about it (lol). On a related front, if the second half of the GFS run is correct about the cold temps, I would think we can get lucky at least once. Either way, the cold air seems to be somewhat close.  

For some reason my perception is that crappy patterns tend to verify better in the LR than good ones.  Not sure if there is any objective reality to that or if it is just selection bias.  Guess what I am trying to say is, I am still worried.

[Wonderdog]

1 minute ago, cbmclean said:

For some reason my perception is that crappy patterns tend to verify better in the LR than good ones.  Not sure if there is any objective reality to that or if it is just selection bias.  Guess what I am trying to say is, I am still worried.

Yeah, me too and I think you're spot on about the crappy patterns. Although when something shows up good in the long range and then disappears, it's normal to remember that more often.

[cbmclean]

1 hour ago, BristowWx said:

Good points.  Neither of us have a chance if the LR EPS come to fruition at day 15. We will just have colder rain.  At least we can laugh about it. 

So true.  You can either laugh or cry...or move to Maine as someone suggested.

[George BM]

19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@frd only issue I have is the “Nina” thing. We have most definitely not been in a typical Nina pattern. 

December H5 for Nina’s in the last 25 years

This December 

The coming pattern does resemble a Jan Nina profile a bit more, at least wrt the central pac ridge, but it still has some massive differences in other places such as the WPO and STJ departments. It’s a weird hybrid pattern. It’s a crap look. It’s actually way worse than a typical Nina look honestly. Lol 

Perhaps Tom was only referring to the similarities wrt the central pac ridge and didn’t want to explain all that.  

What's the site that you get data to customize time periods of these plots from?

May I have a link to it please? - TIA 

[cbmclean]

12 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Yeah, me too and I think you're spot on about the crappy patterns. Although when something shows up good in the long range and then disappears, it's normal to remember that more often.

I actually have a working theory about it.  The GFS/GEFS and Canadian/GEPS have long been noted to have cold bias in the LR.  So then you can hypothesize that if they are consistently seeing a crappy pattern in the LR, then that means there must be a VERY strong warm signal in reality.  An interesting hypothesis that I would love to investigate after I win the lottery.

[psuhoffman]

22 minutes ago, George BM said:

What's the site that you get data to customize time periods of these plots from?

May I have a link to it please? - TIA 

Daily

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/composites/day/

monthly 

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/printpage.pl

[nj2va]

Just got to Deep Creek and surprised to see we still have some snow/ice on the ground - and full ground coverage in the shade.
 

We lost a few very large branches and one tree from the ice storm a week or so ago - will be interesting when I’m able to see more when the sun comes up tomorrow but luckily nothing fell on the house. 

[psuhoffman]

43 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

For some reason my perception is that crappy patterns tend to verify better in the LR than good ones.  Not sure if there is any objective reality to that or if it is just selection bias.  Guess what I am trying to say is, I am still worried.

 

41 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Yeah, me too and I think you're spot on about the crappy patterns. Although when something shows up good in the long range and then disappears, it's normal to remember that more often.

The guidance misses good patterns from day 15 too. And in years where we recycle good looks they cry wolf on warm ups too. (See 2013-14). But the issue is we spend way more time in a crap pattern (wrt snow) than good.  Truth is snow is an aberration not the normal here. If you add up all the typical pattern looks the majority aren’t snowy here. We get a lot of our snow from rare anomalous periods when we hit the jackpot. If you take away the rare periods where we get one of two anomalously rare patterns (an east based EPO/AO combo ridge or a west based NAO block) our average snowfall would be like 5” a year.  So they are naturally going to cry wolf on a good look more often due to more opportunities. 

[Torch Tiger]

41 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

So true.  You can either laugh or cry...or move to Maine as someone suggested.

not this winter...rains to maines

[cbmclean]

16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

The guidance misses good patterns from day 15 too. And in years where we recycle good looks they cry wolf on warm ups too. (See 2013-14). But the issue is we spend way more time in a crap pattern (wrt snow) than good.  Truth is snow is an aberration not the normal here. If you add up all the typical pattern looks the majority aren’t snowy here. We get a lot of our snow from rare anomalous periods when we hit the jackpot. If you take away the rare periods where we get one of two anomalously rare patterns (an east based EPO/AO combo ridge or a west based NAO block) our average snowfall would be like 5” a year.  So they are naturally going to cry wolf on a good look more often due to more opportunities. 

Well, I am in Eastern NC, so everything you say about the rarity of good patterns is magnified for us to the nth degree.  As a matter of fact there aren't any "good" patterns for snow IMBY, there are just "less bad patterns".  It still takes a fluke for me to see anything.

That in mind, I actually "chase" cold more than snow.  And it still seems like anomalously warm patterns are picked up more consistently at longer lead times trhan anomalously cold patters.  Again I have absolutely zero data to support that. 

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Well, I am in Eastern NC, so everything you say about the rarity of good patterns is magnified for us to the nth degree.  As a matter of fact there aren't any "good" patterns for snow IMBY, there are just "less bad patterns".  It still takes a fluke for me to see anything.

That in mind, I actually "chase" cold more than snow.  And it still seems like anomalously warm patterns are picked up more consistently at longer lead times trhan anomalously cold patters.  Again I have absolutely zero data to support that. 

DCs average high is about 45 even in winter. 50 is only slightly above avg. A truly cold pattern is also anomalous. 

[cbmclean]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

DCs average high is about 45 even in winter. 50 is only slightly above avg. A truly cold pattern is also anomalous. 

My averages in January are approximately 50/30.  Almost every year we have at least a couple of segments with consecutive 70+ days.  By "cold" for me I really just mean extended periods of say 45/27 and below.

 

[psuhoffman]

@cbmclean I think you asked about JB once...so something he just did this evening is an example of why he is lower than dog excrement. 

He posted a blog write up where he cherry picks various nonsense to imply cold in the east. But it makes no sense if you actually know a damn thing. First he uses the CFS mjo. Except the CFS forecast for January is hot poo. 

He talks about mountain torque feedback issues on the EPS except the GEFS and GEPS  have the same trough alignment. 

He completely ignores the ridge in the Central Pac. Then he brings up a point about the TNH that completely contradicts his cold arguments. 

I find it unlikely he is a complete imbecile so imo he is playing people.  Comforting the weenies and figures he can spin out later and so long as he keeps telling them what they want to hear they will keep coming back  

 

 

[Mr. Kevin]

I know we need alot of work with the pattern, but what's the main thing? Transient wont cut it this winter I'm afraid. Alutian ridging isnt typical in a elniño i didnt think, nor a -pna. Just interesting to me. The IOD is dropping  but apparently that wont help us. The soi is dropping and i think that won't help us either. Not sure why we have any optimism about January. Personally we should think already about February. Imo, January is toast. Too many factors against us.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Mr. Kevin said:

I know we need alot of work with the pattern, but what's the main thing? Transient wont cut it this winter I'm afraid. Alutian ridging isnt typical in a elniño i didnt think, nor a -pna. Just interesting to me. The IOD is dropping  but apparently that wont help us. The soi is dropping and i think that won't help us either. Not sure why we have any optimism about January. Personally we should think already about February. Imo, January is toast. Too many factors against us.

Was this supposed to make sense?

[BristowWx]

30 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Was this supposed to make sense?

Excuse me stewardess but I speak jive

[Prestige Worldwide]

All the negativity in here. I know the models look bleak but it won’t be long before the worm turns. By New Year’s Day I have a feeling we will be seeing the light at the end of the long range. Keep the faith 

[CAPE]

It's a disaster.

@Ji

[CAPE]

Take advantage of the lovely weather. If its not gonna snow, I am all over this. In Rehoboth now and heading to Lewes later for more fun and craft beer consumption.

[nj2va]

8 hours ago, Scraff said:

Agreed! Those here long enough should know it’s nothing but a winter roller coaster. Tomorrow is always something new. Be patient and drink something good. It will definitely snow again I swear....in 2023. 

At least we have the Caps to keep us occupied too.  Until they do their usual mid-season slump in Jan/Feb.  

[nj2va]

Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

Take advantage of the lovely weather. If its not gonna snow, I am all over this. In Rehoboth now and heading to Lewes later for more fun and craft beer consumption.

That’s the spirit.  Better than posting on repeat about how awful things look and omg and omg snow omg omg omg the pattern on February 23 looks terrible on the Euro monthlies.

I’m going skiing this morning followed by some craft brews at Mountain State.

[frd]

6 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

He posted a blog write up where he cherry picks various nonsense to imply cold in the east. But it makes no sense if you actually know a damn thing. First he uses the CFS mjo. Except the CFS forecast for January is hot poo. 

LOL that is hilarious -   over the weekend he posted one of the American models showing a dramatic cold flip, but everyone calls him out now on social media that the Euro at the same time has very warm temps and exposes his cold bias.  Too funny reading the replies. I just happen to stumble upon it .  As I normally don't read his feed for these very reasons. 

Also, Earthlight said buckle up, well, I am still waiting. Weather is so humbling and frustrating at times. Another winter with complexity off the scale. I mentioned weeks ago about sudden model flips but even these long range changes are rather remarkable to me. 

Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

Take advantage of the lovely weather. If its not gonna snow, I am all over this. In Rehoboth now and heading to Lewes later for more fun and craft beer consumption.

I am jealous, was just there recently and it was awesome. Have fun ! So many great craft beers to sample.  I love greenman  in Rehoboth  -  so cool for breakfast and juicing. 

https://greenmanjuicebar.com/

 

[stormtracker]

2 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

It's a disaster.

@Ji

It's a horror show to be sure, but there really is no point bitching about it.  It'll pass, people just need to be realists.  I've already settled into the fact that the first two weeks of Jan may already be gone.  It is what it is.  

[cbmclean]

9 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

@cbmclean I think you asked about JB once...so something he just did this evening is an example of why he is lower than dog excrement. 

He posted a blog write up where he cherry picks various nonsense to imply cold in the east. But it makes no sense if you actually know a damn thing. First he uses the CFS mjo. Except the CFS forecast for January is hot poo. 

He talks about mountain torque feedback issues on the EPS except the GEFS and GEPS  have the same trough alignment. 

He completely ignores the ridge in the Central Pac. Then he brings up a point about the TNH that completely contradicts his cold arguments. 

I find it unlikely he is a complete imbecile so imo he is playing people.  Comforting the weenies and figures he can spin out later and so long as he keeps telling them what they want to hear they will keep coming back  

 

 

Hmm.  That is very disturbing and disappointing.  Hard enough to sift through the data as it is without charlatans making it harder.

[Steve25]

I've decided to take the approach of only checking the models 7 day outlook and if there's no signs of anything decent, I don't look again for 3 days. It's way too stressful to look every set of models and see the same disappointment. At least waiting 3 days gives a little break. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

It’s December 27

[Bob Chill]

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

It's a horror show to be sure, but there really is no point bitching about it.  It'll pass, people just need to be realists.  I've already settled into the fact that the first two weeks of Jan may already be gone.  It is what it is.  

Yea, I conceded a few days ago. No sense tracking a damn thing when the next 7 days feature mostly unseasonable warmth and any precip will be the rain variety. With nothing exciting showing up beyond the next 7 days it's best to just embrace it, spend time outside, and only worry about the lack of snow once we start consistently getting below freezing again. Hard to be bummed about no snow when it's 60+ outside. 

[Steve25]

That's the way I've always done it though, specifically when were caught in a frustrating pattern. I don't see the point in ever looking beyond 7 days. I can't count the times over the years things have either looked terrible or great in the 10-15 day range, and then ends up being completely wrong. I refuse to get bummed or excited over 10+ day outlooks. It's a waste of time, for me. I respect the guys who do deep dives into the long range patterns and signals. The ones who do it well are more intelligent than I'll ever be. With that said, I can't deal with seeing them say the signals look good in the long range, and then a couple days later say nevermind. It can be such a crap shoot at that range. 

If you want to get bummed about the long range, I feel for you. I'll continue to just focus on the forecast range I can have actual confidence in, which is also a bummer at the moment lol. 

[aldie 22]

How we looking....nope...ok....I'll check back in 2020 some time 

[mappy]

Don’t get me wrong, 50 in December isn’t awful, but some snow would be nice