December Banter 2019

[Wonderdog]

8 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I wasn’t being accusatory. You’re right that there are a good number of seriously knowledgeable posters in this sub forum, and I’ve never drawn boundary lines when it comes to discussion. How much snow do you normally get in a season?
 

Yeah, but even as December started, I remember all the chatter excitement with respect to blocking showing up in the models and the potential as a result. Some of the heavy hitters in the forum were so sold on the possibility of big snow events, that I had enough confidence to put a snow board with a yard stick in the  backyard the first week of December.

I remember that also. I was referring to the late Dec to Feb timeframe.

[WVclimo]

5 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I wasn’t being accusatory. You’re right that there are a good number of seriously knowledgeable posters in this sub forum, and I’ve never drawn boundary lines when it comes to discussion. How much snow do you normally get in a season?
 

Yeah, but even as December started, I remember all the chatter excitement with respect to blocking showing up in the models and the potential as a result. Some of the heavy hitters in the forum were so sold on the possibility of big snow events, that I had enough confidence to put a snow board with a yard stick in the  backyard the first week of December.

That's a noble pursuit.  I put a snow stick out every winter.  Some years it doesn't get much use, but it's always good to have.  Twice I have seen a 36" stick completely covered: January 1978 in western Md. and February 2010 here.  January 2016 fell about an inch shy before it compacted.

[nw baltimore wx]

5 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

LOL.  I'm almost embarrassed to say, but I would say between 1 and 2 inches, probably closer to 1.  I am east of Raleigh in the central coastal plain.  

I would say that maybe one out of every three years we will have a notable event (2 - 4), one out of three years we'll just get a car topper or two, and one out of three years we get bupkis except maybe some flurries and a few sleet pellets.

Of course I tend to root for more suppression than you guys.  Those times when you guys are like "man its just cold and dry" can be good times in my area.

I am also a cold lover in general, I don't necessarily have to have snow to be happy, which is good based on the stats I just mentioned.,  

Although nothing beats snow, I’m in the same camp as you in that I like winter for a lot of reasons, including cold.

5 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

I remember that also. I was referring to the late Dec to Feb timeframe.

Yeah, if we hadn’t gotten the storm in December before the pattern relaxed, it would have been a rough winter until the late January event.

4 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

That's a noble pursuit.  I put a snow stick out every winter.  Some years it doesn't get much use, but it's always good to have.  Twice I have seen a 36" stick completely covered: January 1978 in western Md. and February 2010 here.  January 2016 fell about an inch shy before it compacted.

I don’t think mine got buried that winter because of compaction between the storms, but I remember it was impossible to measure the second blizzard because of the snowpack and wind.

[MillvilleWx]

1 hour ago, mattie g said:

Gotcha. That was a gut-punch, for sure. I left my brother’s house In South Jersey as high clouds started thickening up, knowing what was coming for them. As we drove down 95, we hit some flurries, but when I got home I started getting first reports of snow from my family.

The reason I asked is because you mentioned the week-long heater not long after, and didn’t recall any good stretch that winter that you may have been referring to.

OMG. I'm an idiot. My apologies. I was trying to refer to the one week heater we had in 09-10 and now its dawning on me that I completely screwed that up. I need to get some sleep man 

There was a heater that winter, but it sure as hell wasn't a snow storm heater. As Homer Simpson would say, "DOH!"

[cbmclean]

46 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m silent because I’m withholding judgment. Since the gefs has an underdispersion issue I tend to take a 24 hour cycle of runs as one entity in my mind. It cuts down on mood swings. So while I admit 18z was alarming I’m not assigning the gefs is caving yet. But I do think it was rushing the progression anyways. 

I am disappointed so far. I thought we would do a little better to this point. We’ve had some workable looks. A couple perfect h5 tracks where low level temps were a tad too warm. A trailing wave that was a string out mess.  A couple scenarios where we needed progressive and it trended amplified. This last one wasn’t an awful look but the lead wave died and despite a good 50/50 the high was pathetic and couldn’t hold long enough to get any front end with the second wave. 

I’m not saying we should have had 10”+ by now or anything but with a little luck we could be sitting on 3-5” region wide if a couple of those went slightly better and the whole mood in here would be different. Now we go into the first dead period having struck out so far. I’ll admit that’s a little depressing. 

I have seen some people mention complaints that ensemble members tend to follow the control these days.  The way they say it is like its a new problem that was not present in the past.  Is this a real thing?

Are the EPS/GEPS "better dispersed"? 

How can you evaluate the sufficiency of dispersion?  In other words, what leads to the conclusion that the GEFS is underdispersed instead of the Euro is overdispoersed? 

[psuhoffman]

16 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

I have seen some people mention complaints that ensemble members tend to follow the control these days.  The way they say it is like its a new problem that was not present in the past.  Is this a real thing?

Are the EPS/GEPS "better dispersed"? 

How can you evaluate the sufficiency of dispersion?  In other words, what leads to the conclusion that the GEFS is underdispersed instead of the Euro is overdispoersed? 

The EPS isn’t perfect but it is less prone to sudden drastic shifts. An ensemble is useless if it’s a bunch of op minions saying “me too”.  How to tell the difference is easy. If it were over dispersed the long range would always look washed out and ambiguous due to spread. When the long range often shows strong anomalies and goes through significant changes run to run that’s a sign of under dispersion.  

[George BM]

On 1/31/2019 at 8:26 PM, Zanclidae said:

Best squall I've experienced in my life was in Harford County MD near Jarrettsville.

It was Friday, January 25, 1985.  Story time!

I just got finished up with dinner.  Turned on the TV and was flipping through channels.  WTTG (Channel 5 in DC) was always sensitive to sferics and I used that to know in the summer when TRW was nearby or so.  Never expected to see white static and crashes through the speaker in Jan.  WTF!  So I watched and again, not even a minute later, another one!  So, I take a look out my den window facing due west and sure enough, I can see lightning in the distance.  While this would be no biggie in May, in Jan it is and this area rarely sees thundersnow.  As I kept watching, I noticed what I thought was a dog that got loose from one of the neighbors.  It waddled closer in and to my surprise it was a HUGE Canadian goose!  Well that surely was strange.  And then there was another flash that was bright enough that it took my attention off the goose.  I noticed a few flurries coming down as well.  There were two more flashes and I heard thunder.  This was sounding just like a decent thunderstorm approaching in the spring or summer.  But!  It was snow.  And boy did it snow.  The streetlights up on the main road disappeared and I thought perhaps the power went out, then the houses across the street completely obscured from view!  Not foggy-ish, just gone.  Then I realized what was happening.  It arrived.  What would normally be a torrential downpour was an intense snow squall that was a total white out.  Looking out the window was like looking out there with a white sheet over the glass.  Simply amazing.  There was a blinding flash followed by thunder less than a second later.  It was exceeding blue-white brilliant like a huge high intensity discharge (HMI) lamp starting up.  The wind was also roaring.  I ran downstairs to my shack and checked and the wind speed on my Heathkit ID4000 was at 49 mph.  It was a very high sustained wind during the event.  The peak gust was 53mph.  The anemometer was mounted at 10 meters on a free standing Rohn 25G tower so those numbers are legit.

 

The funniest part of the story is when I pulled the curtain back to look outside, there was a blinding flash of light and right outside the window was that damn goose!  I scared him and he spread his wings and jumped in the air and I nearly fell backwards away from the window.  I actually recall screaming, it was that bad.  If you've ever seen the movie Free Willy, near the beginning where the kids were at the aquarium painting the tank windows with graffiti and the lightning flashes and Jessie sees Willy for the first time with mouth open and screams, well there you go, that's it right there!

Anyhow, after that was over, we had a good 6 or 7" of new snow in well under an hour, 40-45 minutes tops and most of that was in that heavy burst.  I would not want to be caught driving in something like that for sure.  Those are the kind of *instant whiteout* that cause big traffic pileups on the interstate.  Because someone is going to stop and someone isn't.

I've never seen this happen before.  Have seen thundersnow several times, but that was truly legit and it was wonderful.

Probably the most recent winter event that was exciting for me was January 26, 2011.  That was a pretty good "flash freeze" event for us.  And the second time I had to get help with clearing snow off the lane.  The Cyprus trees took a terrible beating with that one.

 

On 1/31/2019 at 8:33 PM, C.A.P.E. said:

I remember that event. I was living in Carroll County then. Was just about to go out for the evening and there was talk of thundersnow to the NW. I looked outside and it was calm and sort of foggy- By the time I got my coat on and went out the front door it was instant whiteout. I didn't go out lol. It was awesome to watch. My brother was out already with friends and got stuck on the roads in the flash freeze. Temps dropped from the upper 30s to low 20s very quickly. Ended up with around 4" in 45 mins as I recall.

 

On 1/31/2019 at 9:02 PM, HighStakes said:

Finally some people remember this event. The most intense squall I've ever seen and probably this region outside of garret county ever saw. I was 12 at the time. My father and I got caught in it. Snow was coming down so heavy I has to get out of the car to clear the windshield for him. We were about 10 minutes from home when it hit and took us 2 hours to get home on reisterstown rd. About 4 inches sounds right. Haven't seen anything close since. 

How in the boogie woogies am I only hearing about this event now? This seemed like it was a good bit more epic than the already cool February 14, 2015 snow squall. Funny how this event is not brought up more frequently whenever we reminisce about past snow squalls. A bigly congrats on all of you snow weenies that were alive to witness this magical event in this region in person. 

[EastCoast NPZ]

2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I would be happy to reap you, sir.

You will have your chance, sir.

Business will be booming soon.

[CAPE]

So whats the latest? Winter ever coming? Cancel?

I was too busy yesterday enjoying the cold, ice, and perpetual snow showers  to check.

[North Balti Zen]

1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

So whats the latest? Winter ever coming? Cancel?

I was too busy yesterday enjoying the cold, ice, and perpetual snow showers  to check.

It’s never coming. We are less than 10 days away from the first post noting how hard the pattern will be to break and  re-set to something else and that effectively in the beltway regions we are running out of time before March slush season arrives.

[H2O]

Our winters every year.

[pasnownut]

3 minutes ago, H2O said:

Our winters every year.

that takes "slow outta the gate" to a whole new level.  Thanks for the chuckle.

 

[H2O]

I can't help but laugh whenever Ralph makes a post and immediately after a met or pro says the complete opposite is happening.

[mappy]

10 years!

[EastCoast NPZ]

Happy anniversary to you^^

And to my favorite snowstorm ever.

[MillvilleWx]

32 minutes ago, mappy said:

10 years!

Happy Anniversary Katie!! 

[Fozz]

I can’t believe it’s been 10 years. I got my last final canceled that semester and enjoyed the biggest storm since PDII. 
 

Also happy anniversary mappy.

[mappy]

25 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Happy anniversary to you^^

And to my favorite snowstorm ever.

 

12 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Happy Anniversary Katie!! 

thank you both! such a fantastic day!!! 

 

also, thanks fozz

[mappy]

1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

My 17 yr old has been doing gymnastics 14 years . It's a extremely time consuming sport and expensive but it's been fun seeing her progress   If your kid does competitive that is . Mine is trying to get a scholarship but most likely will walk on at Md , Temple,  or NC. Unfortunately the injury rate is 90% once u get to level 10 and my daughter has been beat to death with her share of injuries but she's hanging in there and wants to compete in college . Good luck with the class! 

Back on topic..

It was 17 when I left this morning.  

Thats awesome! I hope it works out for her!

Mine does more acrobatic stuff, than specific skills on the beams, bars or vault. More circ des soleil instead of Olympics. Lot of partner skills, synchronization with her teammates and stuff like that. its different, but fun! 

[HighStakes]

15 minutes ago, Fozz said:

I can’t believe it’s been 10 years. I got my last final canceled that semester and enjoyed the biggest storm since PDII. 
 

Also happy anniversary mappy.

Just unbelievable how fast time goes by. What a winter. That year has definitely caused a lot of weenies to have a very unrealistic view of our regions climo.

[MillvilleWx]

3 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

Just unbelievable how fast time goes by. What a winter. That year has definitely caused a lot of weenies to have a very unrealistic view of our regions climo.

10000000% This. This was the pinnacle for a snow season here. We typically get 1/3 of that when it's decent and that doesn't include longer stretches of futility. Weenies these days would've given up hope for most of the 80's and 90's. We've been a heater comparatively. Also, we don't traditionally nickel and dime. A lot of our snow comes from a few events a season. And given our locale, we can cash in on a blockbuster with the best of them along the coast.  

[mattie g]

10 hours ago, MillvilleWx said:

OMG. I'm an idiot. My apologies. I was trying to refer to the one week heater we had in 09-10 and now its dawning on me that I completely screwed that up. I need to get some sleep man 

There was a heater that winter, but it sure as hell wasn't a snow storm heater. As Homer Simpson would say, "DOH!"

OK...so so at least *I* wasn't crazy reading your post.

[MillvilleWx]

Just now, mattie g said:

OK...so so at least *I* wasn't crazy reading your post.

Nah. Idk why I mentioned that. I knew that storm was the following winter. Just a complete brain cramp on my part. I got some sleep and caffeine in me this morning, so my mind will be ready to rock and roll by 9am.....tomorrow 

[LP08]

Ahhh yes.  The 10 year anniversary of the only winter I didn't live in the Mid Atlantic.  I'll never forget lurking on Eastern from Alabama and crying myself to sleep.

 

 

[MillvilleWx]

Just now, LP08 said:

Ahhh yes.  The 10 year anniversary of the only winter I didn't live in the Mid Atlantic.  I'll never forget lurking on Eastern from Alabama and crying myself to sleep.

 

 

How much would it take for you to move to Bama permanently? Asking for the forum ......jk 

[nw baltimore wx]

31 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Ahhh yes.  The 10 year anniversary of the only winter I didn't live in the Mid Atlantic.  I'll never forget lurking on Eastern from Alabama and crying myself to sleep.

That's brutal

 

[Fozz]

53 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

Just unbelievable how fast time goes by. What a winter. That year has definitely caused a lot of weenies to have a very unrealistic view of our regions climo.

Yep, although I think some of the following winters (esp 2011-12) brought most of them back to reality.
 

I do think the whole decade of the 00s gave many weenies (including me for a while) an unrealistic expectation for December. We had a lot of good December 5th storms, plus the big one in 2009, which made it easy to forget that mid-Atlantic climo really doesn’t favor December snow, especially early December.

[Eskimo Joe]

20 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, there's a lot of areas we're interested in. Basically draw a line from Union Bridge > Westminster > Monkton and everywhere north of those towns up to the PA line is the area we're thinking. Might do a full rehab on a beat up old place if the math works. A minimum of 6 years away so plenty of time to figure it out.

Union Bridge and New Windsor have terrible water systems.  If you want better snow climo and views, NE Carroll County and northern Baltimore County can't be beat locally.

[EastCoast NPZ]

36 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Ahhh yes.  The 10 year anniversary of the only winter I didn't live in the Mid Atlantic.  I'll never forget lurking on Eastern from Alabama and crying myself to sleep.

 

 

Ouch

[Negnao]

32 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

That's brutal

 

Alabama or missing that winter?