December Banter 2019

[87storms]

2 hours ago, HighStakes said:

Dec 30th 2000 was a tough one too. WSW for 6-10 turned into sunny and cold. Ravens beat Denver in the wildcard round on their way to the superbowl. 

 

that storm sucked, but i had a feeling (miller b) that it could be a letdown.  i didn't feel confident in march 2001 either considering i was playing basketball in shorts and a tshirt the day before the storm was developing.  the march bust from a few years ago was pretty bad in large part due to the timing of it (in a snow drought leading in and knowing that would be the last real chance of the season).

[mattie g]

3 hours ago, MillvilleWx said:

I remember being completely bummed out on Christmas. Was not a good day. Thankfully we cashed in not too long later with the greatest 1 week heater of all time.

You're not referring to Boxing Day, are you?

[87storms]

4 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I wish those threads still existed.  I was in PA at the time and the snow came in like a wall.  It was great.

i remember it being a bit of a slow starter here in the evening.  it wasn't until the coastal took over the next day that the rates were legit.

 

[Eskimo Joe]

8 minutes ago, 87storms said:

i remember it being a bit of a slow starter here in the evening.  it wasn't until the coastal took over the next day that the rates were legit.

 

I was in Philly for Christmas break...it was almost pure WAA/frontogenesis snow.  Just beautiful because the forecast amounts from CTP and PHI kept creeping up during the 24 hours leading up to the event.

[MillvilleWx]

1 hour ago, mattie g said:

You're not referring to Boxing Day, are you?

I am. I was seeing the storm slip away looking at models and satellite obs. My dad and I were tracking that sucker for days and we were so excited, only to see the rug pulled hard on Christmas and then the death nail on Boxing Day. I remember him telling me he had a sinking feeling about that one for days. He was right. I was so distraught and my buddy kept texting me the next day. At that time, I never knew about EasternWx, so I followed on Accuweather Forums. Thank god for finding this site, because that place turned into a side show and a half. 

[CAPE]

A few shots I took from Washington Monument State Park today, and also a vineyard near Thurmont. Quite the ice storm they had in the higher elevations of this area. Driving up 15 to Gettysburg, the Catoctin ridges are still all frosted over. Quite pretty. Lots of snow flurry activity too.

[NorthArlington101]

love the mPING report of a mudslide outside Reston.

[MillvilleWx]

love the mPING report of a mudslide outside Reston.

I’m more a White Russian fan myself


.

[Amped]

Wishing it was December 18th 2009

[nw baltimore wx]

18 hours ago, Scraff said:

I know we have a boatload of Ravens fans in here. So I’m just putting out the final notice on this...
 

#MVP #MVP #MVP

It's the moment you've been waiting for...almost!

Love to meet as many of you as I can. I’ll be there next week. Fun day and night for sure. I’ll definitely buy my weather crew a beer. Just let me know if you’re coming. We’ll toast a few to Lamar. Hopefully toasting a few to our amazing  snow producing patterns ahead as well. No more Pac Puke!!! 

I bought a ticket. I wasn’t greedy and just got a 4 pack but I’ll have to get there early so I can get the camouflaged black cans. Looking forward to it.

[nw baltimore wx]

13 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Time to punt the rest of the month. It’s over.

[PhineasC]

The older I get the less I understand the endless pattern chasing some do. It's hardly better than a coin flip despite all the angst and analysis. I used to eat this shit up, but not anymore.

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

That weekend storm is getting awfully close...as rain.

[Scraff]

54 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I bought a ticket. I wasn’t greedy and just got a 4 pack but I’ll have to get there early so I can get the camouflaged black cans. Looking forward to it.

Sweet! Looking forward to catching up. I’ll be there before the doors open, but we will definitely hang. Had a sneak peak taste today. It kinda tasted like a pending Super Bowl victory. 

[aldie 22]

It's a good thing it never really snows here or the times it doesn't snow would stink more. Now what stinks is people telling you over and over its not going to snow. It's like you know you're ugly and the pretty girl at the bar says to you...hey you're ugly

[EastCoast NPZ]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Time to punt the rest of the month. It’s over.

You meant met winter, right?

Pattern will get right about mid march, just in time for some early spring white rain slop and PSU jackpot pics.

[Bob Chill]

43 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

It's a good thing it never really snows here or the times it doesn't snow would stink more. Now what stinks is people telling you over and over its not going to snow. It's like you know you're ugly and the pretty girl at the bar says to you...hey you're ugly

So we should lock the long range thread and reopen it when it might snow within 7-10 days?

[mattie g]

5 hours ago, MillvilleWx said:

I am. I was seeing the storm slip away looking at models and satellite obs. My dad and I were tracking that sucker for days and we were so excited, only to see the rug pulled hard on Christmas and then the death nail on Boxing Day. I remember him telling me he had a sinking feeling about that one for days. He was right. I was so distraught and my buddy kept texting me the next day. At that time, I never knew about EasternWx, so I followed on Accuweather Forums. Thank god for finding this site, because that place turned into a side show and a half. 

Gotcha. That was a gut-punch, for sure. I left my brother’s house In South Jersey as high clouds started thickening up, knowing what was coming for them. As we drove down 95, we hit some flurries, but when I got home I started getting first reports of snow from my family.

The reason I asked is because you mentioned the week-long heater not long after, and didn’t recall any good stretch that winter that you may have been referring to.

[aldie 22]

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

So we should lock the long range thread and reopen it when it might snow within 7-10 days?

Nope...keep on keeping on man...so will I right here in this thread 

[cbmclean]

8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

So we should lock the long range thread and reopen it when it might snow within 7-10 days?

I actually think it would be better for my mental health if I didn't obsessively follow this thread.  But I don't have the willpower to stay away, even when we're in a lights out pattern.

[cbmclean]

This is actually a serious question.  Can anyone remember off the top of their head when good pattern was reliably and consistently identified a really long ways out?  To me it seems like when a good pattern does materialize it seems to sneak up in the medium range from what looked mediocre.  Or else it will be glimpsesd intermittently from long range by one of the models or the other, but there will be a ton of waffling back and forth and a model war that keeps you in suspense the whole time.

Does any one remember a time where the major models all consistently agreed about how wonderful it would be, and then by golly it came to fruition?

[nw baltimore wx]

5 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

I actually think it would be better for my mental health if I didn't obsessively follow this thread.  But I don't have the willpower to stay away, even when we're in a lights out pattern.

Is your location Wilson, NC? 
 

3 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

This is actually a serious question.  Can anyone remember off the top of their head when good pattern was reliably and consistently identified a really long ways out?  To me it seems like when a good pattern does materialize it seems to sneak up in the medium range from what looked mediocre.  Or else it will be glimpsesd intermittently from long range by one of the models or the other, but there will be a ton of waffling back and forth and a model war that keeps you in suspense the whole time.

Does any one remember a time where the major models all consistently agreed about how wonderful it would be, and then by golly it came to fruition?

2009-10

[nj2va]

1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said:

It's a good thing it never really snows here or the times it doesn't snow would stink more. Now what stinks is people telling you over and over its not going to snow. It's like you know you're ugly and the pretty girl at the bar says to you...hey you're ugly

It’s not going to snow FYI

[Wonderdog]

6 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Is your location Wilson, NC? 
 

2009-10

Three massive snowfalls, one in December and two in the same week in February. Between December and February though, meh. But maybe that was because there were no real threats for the models to agree on during that  time.

[aldie 22]

Just now, nj2va said:

It’s not going to snow FYI

And I'm ugly

[cbmclean]

1 minute ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Is your location Wilson, NC? 

Yes it is.  I hang out here because the level of meteorological knowledge and analysis is superior to my home thread.  The large-scale pattern drivers are in many cases similar enough between our two regions to allow me to get significant benefit.  I try to stay out of the way and keep most of my posts on the banter thread.  Especially in storm mode.

[snowfan]

The northern Carroll co. crew on the board really does a nice job of selling it as the frozen tundra of the mid-atlantic. 

[nw baltimore wx]

13 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Yes it is.  I hang out here because the level of meteorological knowledge and analysis is superior to my home thread.  The large-scale pattern drivers are in many cases similar enough between our two regions to allow me to get significant benefit.  I try to stay out of the way and keep most of my posts on the banter thread.  Especially in storm mode.

I wasn’t being accusatory. You’re right that there are a good number of seriously knowledgeable posters in this sub forum, and I’ve never drawn boundary lines when it comes to discussion. How much snow do you normally get in a season?
 

14 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Three massive snowfalls, one in December and two in the same week in February. Between December and February though, meh. But maybe that was because there were no real threats for the models to agree on during that  time.

Yeah, but even as December started, I remember all the chatter excitement with respect to blocking showing up in the models and the potential as a result. Some of the heavy hitters in the forum were so sold on the possibility of big snow events, that I had enough confidence to put a snow board with a yard stick in the  backyard the first week of December.

[nj2va]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

I would be happy to reap you, sir.

I hope you increase your rates...about to get crowded in there

[cbmclean]

10 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I wasn’t being accusatory. You’re right that there are a good number of seriously knowledgeable posters in this sub forum, and I’ve never drawn boundary lines when it comes to discussion. How much snow do you normally get in a season?

LOL.  I'm almost embarrassed to say, but I would say between 1 and 2 inches, probably closer to 1.  I am east of Raleigh in the central coastal plain.  

I would say that maybe one out of every three years we will have a notable event (2 - 4), one out of three years we'll just get a car topper or two, and one out of three years we get bupkis except maybe some flurries and a few sleet pellets.

Of course I tend to root for more suppression than you guys.  Those times when you guys are like "man its just cold and dry" can be good times in my area.

I am also a cold lover in general, I don't necessarily have to have snow to be happy, which is good based on the stats I just mentioned.,