December Banter 2019

[cbmclean]

25 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Used to be the NOGAPS. That model had a progressive bias. I'm assuming the NAVGEM no longer has that bias. 

Newbie question: what does "progressive" mean in terms of model bias?  I know progressive as the opposite of a blocked flow.

[psuhoffman]

45 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

CRAS was (sadly) discontinued. Had it's one shining moment as the only model to nail the Boxing Day storm at range. It will live in infamy with other great retired models such as the NGM, MRF, DGEX, and ETA.

That was the joke...

[Maestrobjwa]

26 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Or you could just ignore them like I do. 

Yeah that too, lol But just overall...what purpose to the weather community are they serving? (just for weenie runs? Lol)

[Scraff]

I know we have a boatload of Ravens fans in here. So I’m just putting out the final notice on this...
 

#MVP #MVP #MVP

It's the moment you've been waiting for...almost!

After all the fun, legal stuff with the NFL, we are finally releasing #MVP, our Double IPA tribute to our favorite football team and quarterback! The beer release doesn't start until December 28th, but the link to pre-order your cans will be available below starting tomorrow, Wednesday (12/18) atnoon, sharp.   As of right now, there is a one case per person limit (we reserve the right to change this at any time), but keep in mind, there's only 125 cases available! We only have around 60 cases worth of black cans. The first people in line to pick up their cans, will get them. Once they're out, they're normal silver cans. These will be sold in 4 packs with 6 being a case. Please bring either your ticket or have your digital ticket with you so that we can scan and give you your beer. We're trying to not have lines and to make this run as smoothly as possible. We'll have this beer, fun merch, 11 other beers on draft and plenty of other cans available as well. Speaking of merch, we'll have glassware available as well!   Miss Moon Rising will be playing live from 1-4 and Bullhead Pit Beef serving the delish food!

Love to meet as many of you as I can. I’ll be there next week. Fun day and night for sure. I’ll definitely buy my weather crew a beer. Just let me know if you’re coming. We’ll toast a few to Lamar. Hopefully toasting a few to our amazing  snow producing patterns ahead as well. No more Pac Puke!!! 

[mappy]

3 minutes ago, PDIII said:

Tropical Tidbits has a better ux.  They render the images ahead of time and then download them in the background and cache them locally. So when you want to go through the entire model run it is lightening fast.  I think that pivital weather is doing some client side map rendering in javascript.. which is cool.. but it is slow and painful for the user

thats a rookie mistake for developers who dont get the big picture.  Additionally, for addicts like us, waiting a couple thousand milliseconds for a map to render could be the difference between and good and bad day at home with the family and at work with our colleagues

TTs needs to give away the euro for free like pivotal and they will have the best of both worlds.

putting this in banter

[JakkelWx]

Ten years to the day. We all know what happened. It was the start of an epic winter. 

[Eskimo Joe]

3 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

Ten years to the day. We all know what happened. It was the start of an epic winter. 

I wish those threads still existed.  I was in PA at the time and the snow came in like a wall.  It was great.

[Bob Chill]

9 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

Ten years to the day. We all know what happened. It was the start of an epic winter. 

9 years ago we were only 8 days away from one of the most gut wrenching weenie stomping busts of any Dec since I've been alive

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Props to @griteater for the link to the 20 gefs members.  I cant believe I never found that all these years lol 

Yea man! That's a GREAT link. No doubt the best insight into the member suite I've ever seen. 

[MillvilleWx]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

9 years ago we were only 8 days away from one of the most gut wrenching weenie stomping busts of any Dec since I've been alive

I remember being completely bummed out on Christmas. Was not a good day. Thankfully we cashed in not too long later with the greatest 1 week heater of all time.

[Bob Chill]

3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I remember being completely bummed out on Christmas. Was not a good day. Thankfully we cashed in not too long later with the greatest 1 week heater of all time.

I've said this multiple times over the years but there have been only 2 storms that had a strong effect on me emotionally... and not in a good way... Boxing day 2010 and March 2013. I'm not sure which one was worse as they both had their own unique dagger in the heart. 

[MillvilleWx]

Boxing Day is hands down my worst cuz I had a friend who got 3' on the Jersey shore. I have never wanted to cry on missing a storm, but man that was close lol. 2013 was a dagger too. Let's avoid that 'ish for the rest of eternity. 

[WxUSAF]

As I recall, Boxing Day storm had some warnings of a fail ahead of time. Was kind of on/off the model progs, we were always kind of on the edge, Miller B risk, etc. 

March 2013 was just a complete out of nowhere gut punch. I’ll never forget going to bed with this wall of snow approaching on radar, people on here in central VA seeing heavy snow and already exceeding forecast amounts. I told my wife I thought we’d get more than expected. Then I woke up the next morning and it looked like Monday morning with like 1” of slush and I just was dumbfounded. 

[HighStakes]

Dec 30th 2000 was a tough one too. WSW for 6-10 turned into sunny and cold. Ravens beat Denver in the wildcard round on their way to the superbowl. 

 

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

As I recall, Boxing Day storm had some warnings of a fail ahead of time. Was kind of on/off the model progs, we were always kind of on the edge, Miller B risk, etc. 

March 2013 was just a complete out of nowhere gut punch. I’ll never forget going to bed with this wall of snow approaching on radar, people on here in central VA seeing heavy snow and already exceeding forecast amounts. I told my wife I thought we’d get more than expected. Then I woke up the next morning and it looked like Monday morning with like 1” of slush and I just was dumbfounded. 

Yea, March 13 may get the nod. Being on the heels of an epic snow drought and the huge lead up to the event had us all hooked deep. I remember staying up late with the wife and walking around outside around 1am with WAA snows coming down and the ground covered. Radar looked amazing so I went to bed expecting to wake up to a big winter scene. Well... that didn't exactly happen. 

The post mortem was interesting. The Euro was the only model with the SE jog of SLP. That jog + the intensifying upper level low stole all the goods from us as the NW Ric burbs got destroyed. The daytime was even more depressing. Warm temps, crappy rates, and no hope to recover. 

[MillvilleWx]

8 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

Dec 30th 2000 was a tough one too. WSW for 6-10 turned into sunny and cold. Ravens beat Denver in the wildcard round on their way to the superbowl. 

 

I completely buried that memory, so thanks for bringing it back up . The Ravens thumping Denver on the start of our Super Bowl run certainly is the better memory for that day. That crazy deflection TD for Sharpe is still ingrained in my memory. 

[HighStakes]

6 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I completely buried that memory, so thanks for bringing it back up . The Ravens thumping Denver on the start of our Super Bowl run certainly is the better memory for that day. That crazy deflection TD for Sharpe is still ingrained in my memory. 

I remember it well. Then in the AFC championship game in Oakland Sharpe took that slant 90 plus yards.

[MillvilleWx]

Just now, HighStakes said:

I remember it well. Then in the AFC championship game in Oakland Sharpe took that slant 90 plus yards.

It was an amazing time for football. You knew if we could score 13, the game was over with that defense. Offense just needed to do enough and not turn it over. 

[nw baltimore wx]

36 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

Dec 30th 2000 was a tough one too. WSW for 6-10 turned into sunny and cold. Ravens beat Denver in the wildcard round on their way to the superbowl.

I bought my snowblower for that storm.  I was living in Columbia at the time and I think Kocin was saying a foot or more for us.  I looked pretty funny clearing my partly sunny.

[MDstorm]

The bust of early March 2001 was the ultimate killer for me.

1-2 feet of snow was widely forecasted within 36 hours of that "event".  Then the phasing got screwed up and the storm busted bigly.

[Stormpc]

5 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I bought my snowblower for that storm.  I was living in Columbia at the time and I think Kocin was saying a foot or more for us.  I looked pretty funny clearing my partly sunny.

Kocin was spewing loop-de-loop for 2 days. Well as it turns out it looped but didn't de Loop.

[psuhoffman]

On 12/17/2019 at 9:08 AM, Bob Chill said:

I know and highstakes' post was poking fun at the "mythical fringe" that rarely happens. 

Better snow climo is just a byproduct of where we want to live. We want big rolling views, large property, modest home. Downsize and simplify while getting the F out of the rat race. Our eventual final destination may end up much further north like VT or NH. That's too far away to think much about though. 

You’re describing my place exactly lol. If/when you want to head up this way I would be glad to give advice on where to look for that combo. There are several roads and neighborhoods up here that fit that description. 

[psuhoffman]

53 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

Dec 30th 2000 was a tough one too. WSW for 6-10 turned into sunny and cold. Ravens beat Denver in the wildcard round on their way to the superbowl. 

 

I was up in Quebec for that week and the Eastern Townships got dumped. Pretty epic skiing at Sutton. Then I went up to Tremblant which missed the storm and wiped out going way too fast on ice. Still have back and shoulder issues from that. 

[North Balti Zen]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, March 13 may get the nod. Being on the heels of an epic snow drought and the huge lead up to the event had us all hooked deep. I remember staying up late with the wife and walking around outside around 1am with WAA snows coming down and the ground covered. Radar looked amazing so I went to bed expecting to wake up to a big winter scene. Well... that didn't exactly happen. 

The post mortem was interesting. The Euro was the only model with the SE jog of SLP. That jog + the intensifying upper level low stole all the goods from us as the NW Ric burbs got destroyed. The daytime was even more depressing. Warm temps, crappy rates, and no hope to recover. 

I still blame Jim Cantore 

[Rhino16]

If the 5-6th looks spicy, a lot of students will have a longer winter break. Usually it’s winter break 1.0, 2.0, etc., but maybe this time it will be just a mega winter break.

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, March 13 may get the nod. Being on the heels of an epic snow drought and the huge lead up to the event had us all hooked deep. I remember staying up late with the wife and walking around outside around 1am with WAA snows coming down and the ground covered. Radar looked amazing so I went to bed expecting to wake up to a big winter scene. Well... that didn't exactly happen. 

The post mortem was interesting. The Euro was the only model with the SE jog of SLP. That jog + the intensifying upper level low stole all the goods from us as the NW Ric burbs got destroyed. The daytime was even more depressing. Warm temps, crappy rates, and no hope to recover. 

Snowed 11” here but was about 3” by sunset

[MN Transplant]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

As I recall, Boxing Day storm had some warnings of a fail ahead of time. Was kind of on/off the model progs, we were always kind of on the edge, Miller B risk, etc. 

March 2013 was just a complete out of nowhere gut punch. I’ll never forget going to bed with this wall of snow approaching on radar, people on here in central VA seeing heavy snow and already exceeding forecast amounts. I told my wife I thought we’d get more than expected. Then I woke up the next morning and it looked like Monday morning with like 1” of slush and I just was dumbfounded. 

I think I had given up on Boxing Day before others had, so I never really count that as a horrible miss.  Plus, we were one year removed from 09-10.  In March 2013 I squeezed out 4" and got the day off, so that wasn't as awful either.

My disappointment was my second winter here ('05-'06).  I thought I was going to get one of the classic noreasters that I'd watched on the Weather Channel for so many years.  Instead, Feb. '06 came and it drizzled, snowed some overnight (8"), and then melted rapidly.  What a dud after I had built up expectations for it.

[WinterWxLuvr]

With no real prospects for snow and no snow on the ground to create a winter scene, I’m fine with spending our bad period with 55-60 degree temps. Then ice the pattern improves bring on the cold (with the snow and ice).  I’ll bet there’s a good number who feel the same. 

[Bob Chill]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

You’re describing my place exactly lol. If/when you want to head up this way I would be glad to give advice on where to look for that combo. There are several roads and neighborhoods up here that fit that description. 

Yea, there's a lot of areas we're interested in. Basically draw a line from Union Bridge > Westminster > Monkton and everywhere north of those towns up to the PA line is the area we're thinking. Might do a full rehab on a beat up old place if the math works. A minimum of 6 years away so plenty of time to figure it out.

[JakkelWx]

On a more mellow note the dry slot bust of 2016. Was thinking I'd get around 15 inches but only ended up with 14.9. That got me in the feels man.