December Banter 2019

[CAPE]

I think Bob and i just made yellow snow in the LR thread. 

[CAPE]

Mostly Bob.

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I think Bob and i just made yellow snow in the LR thread. 

Gotta talk about the good and bad. I don't like what I'm seeing and it didn't suddenly start today. One of my peeves in winter is when north america gets flooded coast to coast with martime air. It almost always takes longer than anticipated to get back to a more seasonal regime. I didn't see much talk about the latest weeklies this week. Prob because it shows the same general crappy pac pattern through the end of Jan. Lol. 

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Gotta talk about the good and bad. I don't like what I'm seeing and it didn't suddenly start today. One of my peeves in winter is when north america gets flooded coast to coast with martime air. It almost always takes longer than anticipated to get back to a more seasonal regime. I didn't see much talk about the latest weeklies this week. Prob because it shows the same general crappy pac pattern through the end of Jan. Lol. 

If you buy the latest CFS weeklies, the PAC starts to get right after the first few days of Jan. Gets really good after that. Zero NA blocking though, so its an EPO/WPO driven pattern, but looks generally cold. Ofc who knows how things will evolve in reality.

[showmethesnow]

39 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I think Bob and i just made yellow snow in the LR thread. 

I hate when people pee in my snow. 

[ErinInTheSky]

I haven't been paying as much attention at the beginning of this season but I'm finally here and ready to start tracking stuff. Things looking OK this winter?

[CAPE]

30 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

I hate when people pee in my snow. 

Remember to never confuse yellow snow with a lemon snow cone.

[Ralph Wiggum]

46 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

I hate when people pee in my snow. 

It could be worse,  they could have peed in the snow making machine.

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, cbmclean said:

So is it blocking or not blocking?  I don't know enough to tell the difference myself but some discussion in the main thread is claiming that it is not blocking at all but rather super progressive.

I respectfully disagree (and just posted a thorough explanation in the main thread) with the claim that it’s not real blocking. But I agree 100% that it won’t likely matter wrt snow chances with the pacific looking the way it does. The NAO could offset a mediocre pac but not what’s coming. But the upside is blocking regimes can after recycle and persist and if the pac relaxes we would be in business. The blocking regime coming will save us from a dec AO number that would have been a bad omen for the rest of winter. We will likely end up with a near neutral AO and NAO number now. That’s a lot less hostile for our chances in Jan/Feb. There is very little correlation with March either way.  

[cbmclean]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I respectfully disagree (and just posted a thorough explanation in the main thread) with the claim that it’s not real blocking. But I agree 100% that it won’t likely matter wrt snow chances with the pacific looking the way it does. The NAO could offset a mediocre pac but not what’s coming. But the upside is blocking regimes can after recycle and persist and if the pac relaxes we would be in business. The blocking regime coming will save us from a dec AO number that would have been a bad omen for the rest of winter. We will likely end up with a near neutral AO and NAO number now. That’s a lot less hostile for our chances in Jan/Feb. There is very little correlation with March either way.  

Thanks PSU.  Your knowledge is appreciated as always.

Do you mind if I share this with the SE forum?

[psuhoffman]

Just now, cbmclean said:

Thanks PSU.  Your knowledge is appreciated as always.

Do you mind if I share this with the SE forum?

Thank you. Anything I post I consider public and fair use.  I would only ever have an issue with someone intentionally taking it out of context or editing it to do such. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

NAM’s sure do sucker a lot of people

[JakkelWx]

Can't wait for the epic torch of epic proportions after the HECS on December 22nd. Then it's off to the races on December 25th

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, Thunder struck said:

I just joined this forum because I frequent another message board that Mdecoy is a poster. He is the worst. He's a jerk to everyone, declares himself a winner in arguments where everyone disagrees with him, and makes up a bunch of stories to make him sound like he lives the most interesting life. He recently purchased the message board and is now an admin, and has started deleting threads/posts that make him look bad. I'm sorry you guys have to deal with him as well. 

If anyone is interested, he posts under the username Donald Trump's Bulge on here:

https://blink-182online.com/forums/

 

[JakkelWx]

Wtf

[WinterWxLuvr]

Mdecoy . Is that the guy that used to use commas as apostrophes?

[stormtracker]

15 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

NAM’s sure do sucker a lot of people

Indeed

[cbmclean]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Indeed

I am asking in all seriousness.  Do the regional models serve any observable purpose?  I would think that the only reason for their existence would be to more accurately model the area of their domain.  But based on the discussion on here I cannot see any evidence that, say, the NAM is more accurate over NA than the overall GFS etc.  So why do they exist at all?

[psuhoffman]

21 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

I am asking in all seriousness.  Do the regional models serve any observable purpose?  I would think that the only reason for their existence would be to more accurately model the area of their domain.  But based on the discussion on here I cannot see any evidence that, say, the NAM is more accurate over NA than the overall GFS etc.  So why do they exist at all?

Originally they were to give a hint at meso scale features the globals couldn’t resolve. Now that the latest versions of the euro and gfs are run at 9k and 13k I believe the 12k NAM is pretty obsolete imo. The 3k is still useful. But while it can show what the meso scale structure of a system might look like, meso scale models aren’t going to get the exact location of a meso scale snow band right any more than it will a thunderstorm from 24 hours out let alone 48 or 60. When people expect that it’s going to fail every time. So if your using them to get a better idea of what the potential structure and meso scale features of an event might look like it’s useful. If your relying on them to give the exact placement of those meso scale features...good luck. 

[cbmclean]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Originally they were to give a hint at meso scale features the globals couldn’t resolve. Now that the latest versions of the euro and gfs are run at 9k and 13k I believe the 12k NAM is pretty obsolete imo. The 3k is still useful. But while it can show what the meso scale structure of a system might look like, meso scale models aren’t going to get the exact location of a meso scale snow band right any more than it will a thunderstorm from 24 hours out let alone 48 or 60. When people expect that it’s going to fail every time. So if your using then to get a better idea of that the potential structure and meso scale features of an event might look like it’s useful. If your relying on them to give the exact placement of those meso scale features...good luck. 

Ah, I see.  Makes me ponder the potential future of NWP.  I wonder how much improvement is feasible before they start running up against the "limits of chaos".

Also, even if they can improve the equations and throw more supercomputer power at it, there is also the factor of the actual input data in terms of resolution and accuracy.  Although I have heard that improving weather satellites can help a lot there, since apparently a lot of the assimilated data comes from satellites these days.

[Dendrimer77]

Wish I was here. We all wish we could just squeak out a little snow and the WV mountains fart out flakes seemingly every other day.

https://www.snowshoemtn.com/media-room/silver-creek-live-cam

[Jebman]

Here's to hoping that baby bump thump smashes the entire Mid Atlantic with a good snow!

[CAPE]

9 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I respectfully disagree (and just posted a thorough explanation in the main thread) with the claim that it’s not real blocking. But I agree 100% that it won’t likely matter wrt snow chances with the pacific looking the way it does. The NAO could offset a mediocre pac but not what’s coming. But the upside is blocking regimes can after recycle and persist and if the pac relaxes we would be in business. The blocking regime coming will save us from a dec AO number that would have been a bad omen for the rest of winter. We will likely end up with a near neutral AO and NAO number now. That’s a lot less hostile for our chances in Jan/Feb. There is very little correlation with March either way.  

I think you missed the context, and also replied to my post that was addressing the period after Xmas where there clearly was no blocking on the particular run being discussed.

I do fully understand what constitutes an actual block. But thanks! 

[JakkelWx]

NAVGEM is a crusher from Philly to Boston. Feet of snow. 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I think you missed the context, and also replied to my post that was addressing the period after Xmas where there clearly was no blocking on the particular run being discussed.

I do fully understand what constitutes an actual block. But thanks! 

I’m sorry. I’m awful at that sometimes and saying things in a way that doesn’t offend.   I know you know what blocking is. I was kinda confused. But that post was mostly because there was starting to be comments about whether we were getting real blocking from others. I don’t know if they saw your post and went off on a tangent with it or it had its genesis somewhere else. 

[cbmclean]

It was my fault.  I did not realize that the CAPE post was about AFTER Christmas, so I was confused.  The resulting PSU post was very informative for newbies though.

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m sorry. I’m awful at that sometimes and saying things in a way that doesn’t offend.   I know you know what blocking is. I was kinda confused. But that post was mostly because there was starting to be comments about whether we were getting real blocking from others. I don’t know if they saw your post and went off on a tangent with it or it had its genesis somewhere else. 

Ha you didn't offend me dude. Just having some fun with it. No worries.

[cbmclean]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m sorry. I’m awful at that sometimes and saying things in a way that doesn’t offend.   I know you know what blocking is. I was kinda confused. But that post was mostly because there was starting to be comments about whether we were getting real blocking from others. I don’t know if they saw your post and went off on a tangent with it or it had its genesis somewhere else. 

I was confused about CAPEs timeframe.  I appreciate the educational post, though 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, cbmclean said:

It was my fault.  I did not realize that the CAPE post was about AFTER Christmas, so I was confused.  The resulting PSU post was very informative for newbies though.

It was a very good explanation/illustration of a period of blocking.

He just missed that I completely concurred on it for that very period.

[jonjon]

On a weather note we picked up close to 4" of snow yesterday/last night

On a beer note we're ramping up for the holidays, and going to be tasting our Mattie G inspired Buffalo Trace barrel aged imperial stout next week to see if its gained enough character to release some over Christmas week.  And our new fruited sour's w/lactose have been a huge hit (we currently have a Blackberry/Cranberry version on tap, and next week we will have a Mango/Guava version along with a Raspberry/Cherry version).  

We're proud to be the top West Virginia brewery on untapped.  See https://brilliantstream.com/2019/12/wv-breweries-untappd-2019/ and we have a new pub opening outside of Charleston this coming spring.

This whole brewery thing has not only been fun, but rewarding enough for me to be closing my law firm at the end of this year (I'll still be involved with a title company doing closings, but another step away from the rat race).  You only live once, so doing what you love to do instead of what you have to do is what has driven me to reach this point.  

Anyway, we hope to see some of you out this way soon, if not for the snow, at least maybe some beer.

Or both?  If I'm around I would certainly hook up any member here with a free libation!  Cheers!