December Banter 2019

[Maestrobjwa]

12 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

 

I think I’d want to try living in an actual snow climate for a year, but I almost love the chase more than anything. 300” almost seems boring. Why watch the models if you get 4” of snow for free every night and a blizzard every two weeks?

 

And therein lie the crux of snow life in the Mid-Atlantic...Yes, the way we can sometimes go 50 shades of bust can be frustrating and outright gut-wrenching. And yet...does that actually make the snow even sweeter when it hits? Would we feel the same way if we got snow all the time?....I've always wondered how I'd react to getting an average of 70-100"+ every year, lol I'm not entirely sure! It's just different when it happens down here...

[cbmclean]

Just now, Mr. Kevin said:

Both models are more erratic now than in the past.

I have heard that said repeatedly, but I have to admit that I am skeptical.  From my understanding, it is clear that model verification scores have significantly improved over the last two decades, so I have a hard time envisioning why they would become more volatile.  Perhaps the weather itself has become more volatile and therefore more difficult to simulate?  But again, that should show up in decreased verification scores.

[Bob Chill]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You’re making me want to plan my annual ski trip. With the deluge out there I’m thinking early January maybe this year. Torn between hitting up Snowmass/aspen or Solitide/Snowbasin in Utah. I’ve yet to adequately explore those areas. I love off piste and tree skiing. I know snowmass has some excellent stuff off the cirque and burnt mnt glades. Salt lake is much easier access for a long weekend trip. I might just wait until a week before and let the snow conditions decide for me. 

The biggest problem with aspen/Snowmass is accessibility. Unless you can spring for direct flights, the 5+ hour drive can be tiring. Great terrain tho. Especially highlands. Snowmass is a great powder mountain but not very challenging overall. 

If you haven't been to Jackson Hole then consider that. They're having a fantastic year already. Mountain is stupid big. 

Choosing between the rockies or wasatch is easy... hang with the mormons and bring a snorkel just in case 

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

I have heard that said repeatedly, but I have to admit that I am skeptical.  From my understanding, it is clear that model verification scores have significantly improved over the last two decades, so I have a hard time envisioning why they would become more volatile.  Perhaps the weather itself has become more volatile and therefore more difficult to simulate?  But again, that should show up in decreased verification scores.

Global models cover the entire planet but we only focus on a tiny crumb of real estate. Accuracy is relative. Globals are no doubt more accurate than 5 years ago in general. 

[Mr. Kevin]

I may move just to see more snow and ice lol. Whatever is really causing the warmer winters is kinda sad for me since i like winter and its my favorite season. 

[Mr. Kevin]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Global models cover the entire planet but we only focus on a tiny crumb of real estate. Accuracy is relative. Globals are no doubt more accurate than 5 years ago in general. 

Bob, i just remember a while back once the eps locked into either a cold or warm pattern in the extended, it didn't waffle as much as recently. It was pretty steady. Perhaps its this convoluted pattern with alot of moving parts that is confusing the models. Just giving you my opinion.

[Bob Chill]

Just now, Mr. Kevin said:

Bob, i just remember a while back once the eps locked into either a cold or warm pattern in the extended, it didn't waffle as much as recently. It was pretty steady. Perhaps its this convoluted pattern with alot of moving parts that is confusing the models. Just giving you my opinion.

Progressive flow has been the theme for years now. Imho- much of the volatility has to do with a complete lack of stable blocking. Progressive unblocked flow compounds nwp errors very quickly. Wait until the next time we have a stable -AO. Models will suddenly look genious from 10 days out. 

[Mr. Kevin]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Progressive flow has been the theme for years now. Imho- much of the volatility has to do with a complete lack of stable blocking. Progressive unblocked flow compounds nwp errors very quickly. Wait until the next time we have a stable -AO. Models will suddenly look genious from 10 days out. 

How do we achieve stable blocking for this winter so we aren't chasing unicorns all winter? We look to have a stable ao for a while i think. The Pacific dont look good though. One or the other. 

[Bob Chill]

4 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said:

How do we achieve stable blocking for this winter so we aren't chasing unicorns all winter? We look to have a stable ao for a while i think. The Pacific dont look good though. One or the other. 

There has been a tendency for the ao to go negative and also for 50/50 lows to keep forming but the general pattern hasn't locked in. Dec is notorious for variability and seasonal shifts in jet patterns wobble all over. All we can do is wait and see. Get a stable -ao going in Jan and we'll start to see long track opportunities show up. No idea of that happens or not but seems this year has better odds than the last 3

[Sparky]

14 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

And therein lie the crux of snow life in the Mid-Atlantic...Yes, the way we can sometimes go 50 shades of bust can be frustrating and outright gut-wrenching. And yet...does that actually make the snow even sweeter when it hits? Would we feel the same way if we got snow all the time?....I've always wondered how I'd react to getting an average of 70-100"+ every year, lol I'm not entirely sure! It's just different when it happens down here...

I wouldn't like it if that was the norm for my area.  I don't have the longest driveway but it is long enough.  I would no longer be looking forward to winter as autumn is winding down especially as I grow older.     Instead I would somewhat be dreading the onslaught of snow each year and be looking forward to an early spring (March be damned ha ha).  I like the 3 feet that I average in my location annually.  It is enough to satisfy most years and I can expect to get a decent sized storm every winter >6".  Sure beats the sheer frustration I had all the years living in Baltimore (sorry dude, you really need to move).  I have only been overwhelmed by winter 2 times since moving here.  My first winter in Westminster was the infamous ice winter 93/94.  By the end of January I was starting to wonder if I had made a mistake coming here  it was that horrendous at times plus the cold was intense for a while and my heatpump wasn't the best.  The second time was after the blizzard twins of Feb 2010.   I didn't hate it mind you but I was overwhelmed by the 50+ inches of snow on the ground.  I had to call in a contractor to dig me out for the first and only time in my life .   So I do believe there can be too much of a good thing regarding snow.   I might consider a snowier locale if I ever move into a community where all of the snow removal is done by others but that is not happening anytime soon.

[showmethesnow]

4 minutes ago, frd said:

@showmethesnow   you have any background with the QBO ?

Looking at over some data this morning and attempting to figure when the real benefits actually start to get into the pattern for us. 

Some research shows it might not be until Feb. depending upon what you level you look at. However, I read the actual shear between levels is just as important. 

Imagine the possibilities if we can get some help from the QBO re blocking and combine that with a weakened + IOD along with diminishing lag effects for the second half of the winter. 

 

Stepping out the door right this second to go Christmas shopping so I will have to get back to you later.

[RDM]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

The biggest problem with aspen/Snowmass is accessibility. Unless you can spring for direct flights, the 5+ hour drive can be tiring. Great terrain tho. Especially highlands. Snowmass is a great powder mountain but not very challenging overall. 

If you haven't been to Jackson Hole then consider that. They're having a fantastic year already. Mountain is stupid big. 

Choosing between the rockies or wasatch is easy... hang with the mormons and bring a snorkel just in case 

Your reference to back-country caught my eye.  What gear did you use for back-country?  Do/did you tele-mark or use randonnee gear, or some other setup.  I learned to ski on the bumps in Ohio (a whopping 350 feet of vertical), but really got my legs in the Alps during my first tour in Germany in the late 80's.  Saved no money but skied my arsh off.  Converted to telemark gear in 90 and have never been back on alpine gear since.  Lots more tele skiing in the Alps my second tour in Germany in the early/mid 2000's, plus a fair bit of tele skiing in Japan w/backcountry in the most amazing snow I've ever encountered (and they get a LOT of it).  Last place I skied in Japan was a decent of Mt. Fuji on tele skis - a memorable experience on an incredible day with unlimited visibility.  Haven't skied for 10 plus years, so the tele experience now would be ugly at best now.  

Only skied Squall Valley out west.  As a former Olympic venue I had much higher expectations - it was a big letdown.  Good snow quality, but very disappointing terrain.  Have heard Jackson is one of the best out west.  However, for a relative comparison you can ski more than 2x the vertical of Jackson in Zermatt, Switzerland (over 8500 feet of vertical in one run).  If you've never had a chance to ski the Alps, it is highly recommended.  Pick the right times to go off season though to avoid the lines.  If you go during ski break in the springtime the congestion can be crazy.  In general, much more vertical in the Alps than about anyplace out west, but better snow out west.

[psuhoffman]

15 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

Yes ...there r older weenies like @showmethesnow and Chill . You're a bit older then me . My 1st snow memory was PD 1 . But I was really little. 

78' was decent in Carroll county.  I think between 6-15" fell county wide ..ne Carroll the highest 

The Feb 78 storm was a County Divider in Carroll. The southwestern most locations only got about 5” and the northeastern most locations near Manchester got about 15”. Westminster was around 8”. The back edge of the wrap around deform developed just in time to clip places northeast of Westminster. 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, cbmclean said:

I've wanted to get onto skiing for a while.  Living in eastern NC with parents who have no interest didn't start me off well.  My wife has no interest in it, so not much hope of it anytime soon.

How far are you from Snowshoe? 

[Bob Chill]

@RDM

I used an Ortovox F1 transceiver and trekking adapters for downhill skiis with skins. I actually still have both in a closet. Lol. I have several avalanche shovels that I keep in my cars and truck in winter.

We took some chances and did some stupid risky descents but overall proper avalanche precautions were taken. Nobody I knew died but about 9 people did die in avalanches in the county I lived in over the 7 seasons. 

We used to draw straws for first man down. Being first was typically terrifying but going after the test monkey was a blast. 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

The biggest problem with aspen/Snowmass is accessibility. Unless you can spring for direct flights, the 5+ hour drive can be tiring. Great terrain tho. Especially highlands. Snowmass is a great powder mountain but not very challenging overall. 

If you haven't been to Jackson Hole then consider that. They're having a fantastic year already. Mountain is stupid big. 

Choosing between the rockies or wasatch is easy... hang with the mormons and bring a snorkel just in case 

Thanks for the info. I have skied Jackson Hole many years ago. Amazing terrain. I almost got caught in a rare in bounds avalanche when I was there.  My favorite place to ski is Revelstoke. Amazing amount of off piste tree skiing and crazy stupid thigh burning vertical if you want to just bomb down the mountain once or twice. But like Aspen it’s an epic grail quest just to get there. 

Wrt terrain toughness I’m not sure I need crazy anymore. There was a time bombing down the pallavicini at Arapahoe or going backcountry somewhere was my thing but I’m getting older and I will probably be alone this time since my kids aren’t ready and my brother isn’t coming this year and my only other skiing friend is out of the country...so I’m not sure I feel comfortable doing anything too crazy on my own. I did in the past and recently have thought “that was kinda stupid, if I had made a bad turn no one would have found me for a while potentially”.  So the trees off burnt at Snowmass “could” be the perfect balance. Can’t go wrong with Utah though. 

[cbmclean]

24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

How far are you from Snowshoe? 

Nearly six hours unfortunately.  NC has a couple of rinky-dink ski areas which aren't much closer.  Went to one once but predictably it was in the middle of a warm period so it was kind of pathetic.  Still had fun though. 

I have tried to interest the wife in a compromise with snowshoeing, but she still has no interest.  She hates cold.

[Bob Chill]

16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Thanks for the info. I have skied Jackson Hole many years ago. Amazing terrain. I almost got caught in a rare in bounds avalanche when I was there.  My favorite place to ski is Revelstoke. Amazing amount of off piste tree skiing and crazy stupid thigh burning vertical if you want to just bomb down the mountain once or twice. But like Aspen it’s an epic grail quest just to get there. 

Wrt terrain toughness I’m not sure I need crazy anymore. There was a time bombing down the pallavicini at Arapahoe or going backcountry somewhere was my thing but I’m getting older and I will probably be alone this time since my kids aren’t ready and my brother isn’t coming this year and my only other skiing friend is out of the country...so I’m not sure I feel comfortable doing anything too crazy on my own. I did in the past and recently have thought “that was kinda stupid, if I had made a bad turn no one would have found me for a while potentially”.  So the trees off burnt at Snowmass “could” be the perfect balance. Can’t go wrong with Utah though. 

Take a look at powder mtn and the canyons in utah. Expansive gladed terrain with 30 degree pitch (perfect for cruising deep powder). I road tripped to Alta one year but the road was closed so we hit the canyons on a whim. 60" storm and no crowds. It was the deepest untouched snow I've ever skied including back country. Resort was new back then. Now it's gigantic and connects to Park City iirc. Powder mtn was always on my list but never made it. Looks amazing for old guys. Haha

[George BM]

Baaabeee Bump Thump do do do do  do do Baby Bump Thump do do do do  do do Baby Bump Thump do do do do  do do Baby Bump...

Mommy Bump Thump do do do do  do do Mommy Bump Thump do do do do  do do Mommy Bump Thump do do do do  do do Mommy Bump...

Daddy Bump Thump do do do do  do do Daddy Bump Thump do do do do  do do Daddy Bump Thump do do do do  do do Daddy Bump...

Grandma Bump Thump do do do do  do do Grandma Bump Thump do do do do  do do Grandma Bump Thump do do do do  do do Grandma Bump...

Grandpa Bump Thump do do do do  do do Grandpa Bump Thump do do do do  do do Grandpa Bump Thump do do do do  do do Grandpa Bump...

 

 

 

Aight, I'ma head into hiding now. 

[KAOS]

[psuhoffman]

19 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Take a look at powder mtn and the canyons in utah. Expansive gladed terrain with 30 degree pitch (perfect for cruising deep powder). I road tripped to Alta one year but the road was closed so we hit the canyons on a whim. 60" storm and no crowds. It was the deepest untouched snow I've ever skied including back country. Resort was new back then. Now it's gigantic and connects to Park City iirc. Powder mtn was always on my list but never made it. Looks amazing for old guys. Haha

I skied powder a couple times.  Loved it. Slightly less vertical per run than I prefer. Have you hit Solitude?  Curious of Honeycomb Canyon is the right mix of trees but not tooooo crazy. Seems like it from the videos and reports I’ve read.  Something the level of the Trees on Blue Sky at Vail (maybe slightly more challenging) is probably the right level for what I’m comfortable with when I’m solo and want to come home to the family in one piece. 

[Bob Chill]

17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I skied powder a couple times.  Loved it. Slightly less vertical per run than I prefer. Have you hit Solitude?  Curious of Honeycomb Canyon is the right mix of trees but not tooooo crazy. Seems like it from the videos and reports I’ve read.  Something the level of the Trees on Blue Sky at Vail (maybe slightly more challenging) is probably the right level for what I’m comfortable with when I’m solo and want to come home to the family in one piece. 

Yea, Solitude is bad ass. Excellent side country terrain and liberal gate policies. Honeycomb is more like A basin than Vail iirc but we specifically sought out the steepest stuff so my memory is biased. Only complaint with Solitude is it's really time consuming per run. The canyon runout back to the lifts is a thigh burner. Similar to keystone's north bowl runout. You spend far more time coasting and riding lifts than dropping vertical

[RDM]

2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

@RDM

I used an Ortovox F1 transceiver and trekking adapters for downhill skiis with skins. I actually still have both in a closet. Lol. I have several avalanche shovels that I keep in my cars and truck in winter.

We took some chances and did some stupid risky descents but overall proper avalanche precautions were taken. Nobody I knew died but about 9 people did die in avalanches in the county I lived in over the 7 seasons. 

We used to draw straws for first man down. Being first was typically terrifying but going after the test monkey was a blast. 

Oh my.  I have  the same Ortovox - someplace - with the strength meter option.  It's a must for backcountry.  Same for the shovels.  Mine were relegated to vehicle duty long ago too.  As they say, you measure how much your friends like YOU by the size of THEIR shovels.  Used Ramer ski poles with self-arrest grips that can be converted into probe poles.  Fortunately never had to use them for probing, but the self arrest feature saved me a couple times.

One of the many things I like about the Alps is you don't have to worry about some curmudgeon ski patrol threatening to punch your ticket for skiing off-piste.  You can ski just about anyplace you want other than a few off limits forests that are safe zones for avalanche protection.  Lots of off-piste options from hut to hut etc.  That said, if you get hurt off piste in Europe it is extremely expensive to be rescued.  So ski insurance is a good thing.  Lots of good memories. 

 

[Sparky]

I’m ok with snow on Monday if it wants.  FedEx delivered the BIG package today instead of Monday so I’m good.

[psuhoffman]

It will be funny if after years of not being able to buy any blocking the first legit NAO block we get suppresses a storm to Florada. 

[Prestige Worldwide]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It will be funny if after years of not being able to buy any blocking the first legit NAO block we get suppresses a storm to Florada. 

Murphy's law of weather for the Mid Atlantic 

[cbmclean]

49 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It will be funny if after years of not being able to buy any blocking the first legit NAO block we get suppresses a storm to Florada. 

So is it blocking or not blocking?  I don't know enough to tell the difference myself but some discussion in the main thread is claiming that it is not blocking at all but rather super progressive.

[CAPE]

40 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

So is it blocking or not blocking?  I don't know enough to tell the difference myself but some discussion in the main thread is claiming that it is not blocking at all but rather super progressive.

Here is a fairly basic definition. This is not what we are seeing currently. We are seeing  transient ridging episodes , but not a blocked flow.

"Blocking events are associated with long-lasting and slow-moving high-pressure systems that "block" westerly winds in the mid- and high-latitudes, causing the normal eastward progress of weather systems to stall."

When I see 50/50 lows flying northward into the upper latitudes, that tells me there is no NA block. That is not to say a bootleg/transient ridge in the NA with a 50/50 low is not beneficial, but because both are on the move, it requires more  precise timing.

 

[Bob Chill]

27 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

So is it blocking or not blocking?  I don't know enough to tell the difference myself but some discussion in the main thread is claiming that it is not blocking at all but rather super progressive.

Mathematically it is blocking as both the ao and nao indices will be negative. Problem is it doesn't appear to be stable and the pacific is about to overwhelm everything anyways. Nothing can save us with a pretty hideous upper level pattern in the east pacific. Dec 2012 had a sig -ao/nao through the whole month but it didn't matter with a giant vortex over AK pumping maritime air across the entire continent. 

Our winter wx is never as simple as a -AO forming and snowstorms start hitting. We've had a ton of good blocks produce nothing and also have had plenty of snowstorms with no blocking at all. 

[CAPE]

A good example of a block was what we saw in the EPO/WPO domain back in November. That upper ridging was persistent for many days, and even then when it tried to break down briefly it quickly redeveloped. That persistence was the mechanism that delivered the unseasonably cold outbreaks we experienced.