December Banter 2019

[BristowWx]

3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

The OG. Youre taking me back!

Anyone do the mirc thing on #neweather with Ian, Marcus, and I (SteveB)? I think Randy eventually joined us...and a bunch from the NE crew.

Don’t remember that. I’m trying to remember when I first saw the name Ji.  I want to say Wright Weather.  I also remember listening to WTOP Jan 25 00 on our book shelf stereo and hearing Lisa Baden say it was a mess out there.  Then Ray Stagic from the Weather Channel said the computer models shifted west and what was 1-2 inches was 1-2 feet.  I thought I was in a dream state.  Good times.  Just had my 4th and final 90 min IPA...I think it’s actually Jan 25 00 right now

[BristowWx]

14 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

A wine drinking night for me tonight . Last night I had a few imperial nitro  pecan pie cream ales.  Very good . And also had a potent imperial  brown ale(11.1 abv) you'd never know it though . Watching MTV classic.  Quiet Riot video of Cum on feel the noize ...one of my all time favs . The guy in bed with it shaking like crazy banging the head board lol and he's constantly reaching for the giant volume knob on the receiver...classic .

Go Ravens!!!

Shame that lead singer died.  I feel like he had so much more to offer us in retro classic concerts with Def Leppard and  Twisted Sister

[BristowWx]

Just now, losetoa6 said:

1-25-00 I went to bed at 10 pm expecting nothing and figured Baltimore on east would see a dusting or so . Got up at 5:30am with heavy snow.  Gotta love it ...one of the great epic surprises of all time 

It’s legendary to all of us weenies who were alive then.  I was just married and woke up my wife at 530 to tell her the good news.  She said it’s just snow.  May she Rest In Peace.  

[mappy]

5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

1-25-00 I went to bed at 10 pm expecting nothing and figured Baltimore on east would see a dusting or so . Got up at 5:30am with heavy snow.  Gotta love it ...one of the great epic surprises of all time 

I was in high school, was spending the night at a friends a few houses from mine. My mom called during the 11pm news to ask me to come home while she ran to the gas station to pick up a few things. I did, watched the weather report about the storm, while my sisters slept. I went back to my friends once my mom came home. Woke up to so much snow! I didn’t go home for two days lol didn’t feel like walking in it 

edit: was living in Pasadena at the time, AA county

[JakkelWx]

 

[yoda]

7 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

1-25-00 I went to bed at 10 pm expecting nothing and figured Baltimore on east would see a dusting or so . Got up at 5:30am with heavy snow.  Gotta love it ...one of the great epic surprises of all time 

I remember that.... but I had my weather radio handy that night next to me.  I had no idea about weather boards or internet yet... i was in 8th grade... i remember hearing all the forecasts about how we were going to get only a dusting in DC if we were lucky and I think it was Bob Ryan on NBC at the time at like 6pm was like its going to be close, but not this time for us... i went to bed with my weather radio next to me listening to it over and over hoping something would change... then the tell tale "beeeeeeep" noise that came on when a warning was issued... i believe the first warning issued by LWX was for 3-6/4-8 inches... i remember running downstairs to tell my dad and he was like uh huh sure... sure enough, 11pm news came on and there was the huge changes in how much snow was forecasted for us and the rest is history lol

I was in West Springfield in Fairfax County where I still live at the time

[MDstorm]

7 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

1-25-00 I went to bed at 10 pm expecting nothing and figured Baltimore on east would see a dusting or so . Got up at 5:30am with heavy snow.  Gotta love it ...one of the great epic surprises of all time 

By 10:00, the radar trends were obvious and the best of all busts was underway.  That was a special night!

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

I remember that.... but I had my weather radio handy that night next to me.  I had no idea about weather boards or internet yet... i was in 8th grade... i remember hearing all the forecasts about how we were going to get only a dusting in DC if we were lucky and I think it was Bob Ryan on NBC at the time at like 6pm was like its going to be close, but not this time for us... i went to bed with my weather radio next to me listening to it over and over hoping something would change... then the tell tale "beeeeeeep" noise that came on when a warning was issued... i believe the first warning issued by LWX was for 3-6/4-8 inches... i remember running downstairs to tell my dad and he was like uh huh sure... sure enough, 11pm news came on and there was the huge changes in how much snow was forecasted for us and the rest is history lol

Ah the weather radio. Love that sound when there was an alert.   Mine was yellow with a stubby antenna.   Got it at Radio Shack.  I should ask for another one this Xmas.  

[RedSky]

11 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Ah the weather radio. Love that sound when there was an alert.   Mine was yellow with a stubby antenna.   Got it at Radio Shack.  I should ask for another one this Xmas.  

Still have my original NOAA weather cube from the 70's, time to dig that out for nostalgia. 

 

[BristowWx]

12 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

You were a youngin then compared to me lol. But yea... I think the 11 news finally picked up on the threat but NC had no warning and they got freaking crushed. 

Yeah feeling old now hearing how young mappy and Yoda are...I’m 49 this year...I was around for the Blizzard of 78 although I grew up in Jersey.  Not sure how it was here.  Hope there are older weenies on the forum than me lol

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, RedSky said:

Still have my original NOAA weather cube from the 70's, time to dig that out for nostalgia. 

 

Yeah the cube where you press the top and the metal antenna you pull up.  I remember that one too.  On my newer one I would switch bands to hear other static filled broadcasts.  I would listen to it all night. 

[cbmclean]

10 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Nobody mentioned the GEFS 5-day 2m temp avgs thru the entire run are BN aside from 1 AN panel at the start and a N panel. Really believing the moderation is going to be muted and transient. Alas, it is the GEFS but verification hasn't been shoddy lately.

I am interested in how it caves.  Will it be all at once, or will it be gradual over a couple of days? 

[cbmclean]

28 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

You were a youngin then compared to me lol. But yea... I think the 11 news finally picked up on the threat but NC had no warning and they got freaking crushed. 

Ah, the famed Carolina crusher.  Raleigh got 21 or 22 inches.  Baffled our forecasters in a good way.

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Yes ...there r older weenies like @showmethesnow and Chill . You're a bit older then me . My 1st snow memory was PD 1 . But I was really little. 

78' was decent in Carroll county.  I think between 6-15" fell county wide 

Good to know.  I guess weenies never grow up.  I still stand outside in the cold waiting for first flakes looking up at the porch light like a mental case.  Most don’t understand this level of weenie...except here 

[Bob Chill]

1 hour ago, BristowWx said:

Good to know.  I guess weenies never grow up.  I still stand outside in the cold waiting for first flakes looking up at the porch light like a mental case.  Most don’t understand this level of weenie...except here 

I think it's hard wired into some people. Been this way as long as I can remember and I'll never change. PDI was my first huge one but I remember plenty other decent events before that. I remember walking a mile from shore on bay ice in 77. People we're literally driving cars across ice.

I know a handful of weenies in real life but I'm the worst. When I lived in the rockies I figured it would satisfy my craziest snow dreams. The only thing it taught me is you can never be satisfied. My yard got over 300" in 95-96 and the ski areas got 4-500. I was depressed when the season ended. 

[cbmclean]

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

My yard got over 300" in 95-96 and the ski areas got 4-500. I was depressed when the season ended. 

Were you depressed because all the snow didn't make you truly happy, or just because the season was over and you still wanted snow?

[JakkelWx]

We will most certainly get a HECS on the 22nd. Bank on getting a few feet of snow that will be gone by the 25th! 

[NorthArlington101]

I think it's hard wired into some people. Been this way as long as I can remember and I'll never change. PDI was my first huge one but I remember plenty other decent events before that. I remember walking a mile from shore on bay ice in 77. People we're literally driving cars across ice.
I know a handful of weenies in real life but I'm the worst. When I lived in the rockies I figured it would satisfy my craziest snow dreams. The only thing it taught me is you can never be satisfied. My yard got over 300" in 95-96 and the ski areas got 4-500. I was depressed when the season ended. 

I think I’d want to try living in an actual snow climate for a year, but I almost love the chase more than anything. 300” almost seems boring. Why watch the models if you get 4” of snow for free every night and a blizzard every two weeks?

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I think it's hard wired into some people. Been this way as long as I can remember and I'll never change. PDI was my first huge one but I remember plenty other decent events before that. I remember walking a mile from shore on bay ice in 77. People we're literally driving cars across ice.

I know a handful of weenies in real life but I'm the worst. When I lived in the rockies I figured it would satisfy my craziest snow dreams. The only thing it taught me is you can never be satisfied. My yard got over 300" in 95-96 and the ski areas got 4-500. I was depressed when the season ended. 

You are a weather smart, informed weenie also.  I know enough to impress non-weenies who ask why it’s not snowing in December because its supposed to snow in December based on Hallmark movies.  But being here is humbling to anyone who thinks they know weather. You should have at least a pro forecaster tag.

[cbmclean]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

 

I think I’d want to try living in an actual snow climate for a year, but I almost love the chase more than anything. 300” almost seems boring. Why watch the models if you get 4” of snow for free every night and a blizzard every two weeks?

I have always suspected that the population of snow weenies in the upper NY snow belt is probably pretty small, just for that reason.

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

 

I think I’d want to try living in an actual snow climate for a year, but I almost love the chase more than anything. 300” almost seems boring. Why watch the models if you get 4” of snow for free every night and a blizzard every two weeks?

 

I’d like to live at 850 just so I wouldn’t have to worry about 850 temps.

[psuhoffman]

Over under on how many more times @Mr. Kevin tells us we should pay more attention to the euro this winter?  

[Mr. Kevin]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Over under on how many more times @Mr. Kevin tells us we should pay more attention to the euro this winter?  

Be nice psu lol. We cant control the weather. Just giving my opinion. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Over under on how many more times @Mr. Kevin tells us we should pay more attention to the euro this winter?  

I’m guessing 9 out every 10 chances he gets

[Bob Chill]

11 hours ago, cbmclean said:

Were you depressed because all the snow didn't make you truly happy, or just because the season was over and you still wanted snow?

Depressed because my entire life revolved around backcountry and powder skiing and it was over.

11 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

 

I think I’d want to try living in an actual snow climate for a year, but I almost love the chase more than anything. 300” almost seems boring. Why watch the models if you get 4” of snow for free every night and a blizzard every two weeks?

 

There are actually lots of busts and roller coasters in the rockies. Many warning events that I woke up to partly cloudy and 1-2". Took a couple years before figuring out the right setups for the area I lived in. The biggest storm cycles were jet/orographic driven and not synoptic. Those big 4 corners lows that pummel the front range usually suck west of the divide. What's happening now with moist pac jet on W-NW flow is prime for the northern half of the state. Breckenridge has had almost 3 feet in the last 48 hrs. That's a very big storm and not very common. 

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said:

Be nice psu lol. We cant control the weather. Just giving my opinion. 

Ok if you’re new here it’s not fair to poke fun, it’s just that we all know the euro is superior to the gfs. It’s not a secret, despite the fact some (DT ...clears throat) act like it is. No one here worships the gfs. 

That said the euro isn’t so numerically superior that you can just rip and read it as gospel. It can have spectacular fails also. And when the preponderance of evidence is against it usually it is wrong. Additionally it has its own biases and tendencies that need to be taken into account. 

Historically a 60/40 compromise (weighted towards the euro) verifies best.  It also takes skill and knowledge of both models tendencies to predict how the compromise will take place. 

So in essence you are right the euro should get more attention.  But not at the expense of all other guidance and it still needs skilled human interpretation. And most here know all that.  

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Depressed because my entire life revolved around backcountry and powder skiing and it was over.

There are actually lots of busts and roller coasters in the rockies. Many warning events that I woke up to partly cloudy and 1-2". Took a couple years before figuring out the right setups for the area I lived in. The biggest storm cycles were jet/orographic driven and not synoptic. Those big 4 corners lows that pummel the front range usually suck west of the divide. What's happening now with moist pac jet on W-NW flow is prime for the northern half of the state. Breckenridge has had almost 3 feet in the last 48 hrs. That's a very big storm and not very common. 

You’re making me want to plan my annual ski trip. With the deluge out there I’m thinking early January maybe this year. Torn between hitting up Snowmass/aspen or Solitide/Snowbasin in Utah. I’ve yet to adequately explore those areas. I love off piste and tree skiing. I know snowmass has some excellent stuff off the cirque and burnt mnt glades. Salt lake is much easier access for a long weekend trip. I might just wait until a week before and let the snow conditions decide for me. 

[cbmclean]

Man I have enjoyed the seasonal-to-cool aspect of the first half-of December, but man I wish that the Pac puke had chosen that time to go apesh!t instead of right at Christmas.

[Mr. Kevin]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Ok if you’re new here it’s not fair to poke fun, it’s just that we all know the euro is superior to the gfs. It’s not a secret, despite the fact some (DT ...clears throat) act like it is. No one here worships the gfs. 

That said the euro isn’t so numerically superior that you can just rip and read it as gospel. It can have spectacular fails also. And when the preponderance of evidence is against it usually it is wrong. Additionally it has its own biases and tendencies that need to be taken into account. 

Historically a 60/40 compromise (weighted towards the euro) verifies best.  It also takes skill and knowledge of both models tendencies to predict how the compromise will take place. 

So in essence you are right the euro should get more attention.  But not at the expense of all other guidance and it still needs skilled human interpretation. And most here know all that.  

I understand psu. The euro and eps i will admit aren't as good as years ago it seems. Both models are more erratic now than in the past. I follow alot of people on Twitter, especially the better more astute forecasters. HM is one for sure. It's not my first rodeo with weather lol. We all want a better pattern but it apparently is going to take a while it seems. 

[cbmclean]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You’re making me want to plan my annual ski trip. With the deluge out there I’m thinking early January maybe this year. Torn between hitting up Snowmass/aspen or Solitide/Snowbasin in Utah. I’ve yet to adequately explore those areas. I love off piste and tree skiing. I know snowmass has some excellent stuff off the cirque and burnt mnt glades. Salt lake is much easier access for a long weekend trip. I might just wait until a week before and let the snow conditions decide for me. 

I've wanted to get onto skiing for a while.  Living in eastern NC with parents who have no interest didn't start me off well.  My wife has no interest in it, so not much hope of it anytime soon.