MJO812 Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 Upton in their latest discussion thinks heavier bands will form later tonight for the area. That's why they raised the amounts. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 On 12/2/2019 at 9:36 PM, Ericjcrash said: Yeah, it was out to lunch on thermals and made all the difference. Expand It wasn't just the thermals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 33 with moderate snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 On 12/2/2019 at 9:37 PM, Snow88 said: Upton in their latest discussion thinks heavier bands will form later tonight for the area. That's why they raised the amounts. We shall see. Expand Last band moving through now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 On 12/2/2019 at 9:10 PM, Enigma said: Elevation was significant today. Expand It didn't do me any good today at 700 feet. Unless something special happens this goes down as 1/2" of frozen grey matter with a snowy frosting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 Nam , Rgem and Gfs continues to look good for later on. Maybe we just have to wait till later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 On 12/2/2019 at 9:41 PM, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said: Last band moving through now Expand Maybe more bands will form later 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 Big flakes here in Brooklyn. Temp is now 32. Starting to stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 EWR 1.3, NYC 1.0, LGA and JFK 0.1 so far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 On 12/2/2019 at 9:47 PM, SnowGoose69 said: EWR 1.3, NYC 1.0, LGA and JFK 0.1 so far Expand 0.4 storm total here, 0.2 yesterday, and 0.2 today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rickymortyx Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 Nothing falling out the sky now. This storm was a flop. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 On 12/2/2019 at 9:34 PM, rickymortyx said: This storm has been nothing in Jersey City everything is wet no one will trust the weather people anymore.People have been saying that every every time a storm bust the past 50 yearsSent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 Moderate snow down here again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 Take a look at the radar south of LI. Bands are starting to pivot north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 No offense guys, time for a reality check: 1. The only place I saw anything above a slushy inch or two for the city was on this forum. No forecast called for that. No one cherry picked the best models having the best runs and publicized that. 2. The models have been very consistent and accurate. I said this last night: snow to snow/rain to rain to snow/rain to snow. They have showed this since Wednesday. If you chose to discount that for a favored run, that is your own fault 3. Temps were always going to be in the 30s, not 20s. That means grassy, wooded, hilly areas of the metro do well. That means the stoop on your Brooklyn walkup does bad. Slushy 1-2 inches on the back end. We discussed that on Thanksgiving...and surprise...that is what we’ve got. South shore does bad in those situations...hello JFK with lowest total. This storm was modeled very well. Many of you just didnt want to see it. It is a long winter. This is 12/1. Pace yourselves. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rickymortyx Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 On 12/2/2019 at 9:55 PM, Snow88 said: Take a look at the radar south of LI. Bands are starting to pivot north. Expand And how will that reach us? A miracle is needed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 On 12/2/2019 at 9:58 PM, jfklganyc said: No offense guys, time for a reality check: 1. The only place I saw anything above a slushy inch or two for the city was on this forum. No forecast called for that. No one cherry picked the best models having the best runs and publicized that. 2. The models have been very consistent and accurate. I said this last night: snow to snow/rain to rain to snow/rain to snow. They have showed this since Wednesday. If you chose to discount that for a favored run, that is your own fault 3. Temps were always going to be in the 30s, not 20s. That means grassy, wooded, hilly areas of the metro do well. That means the stoop on you Brooklyn walkup does bad. Slushy 1-2 inches on the back end. We discussed that on Thanksgiving...and surprise...that is what we’ve got. South shore does bad in those situations...hello JFK with lowest total. This storm was modeled very well. Many of you just didnt want to see it. It is a long winter. This is 12/1. Pace yourselves. Expand What? Models this morning were showing 4-8". Some are still showing this. Even Upton just raised NYC to 4-6" sorry some strange reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 On 12/2/2019 at 10:00 PM, rickymortyx said: And how will that reach us? A miracle is needed. Expand Where are you ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 On 12/2/2019 at 8:59 PM, hooralph said: Snowfall rates have appreciably lessened in past 30 + minutes in lower Manhattan. Visibility has gone from about 1/2 mile to well over (based on looking out my window across the river at Brooklyn). Snow has not stuck to anything. Expand Have some slush downtown now, but its also now more like drizzle with some flurries currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 On 12/2/2019 at 10:01 PM, Ericjcrash said: What? Models this morning were showing 4-8". Some are still showing this. Even Upton just raised NYC to 4-6" sorry some strange reason. Expand They raised it because they are expecting bands to develop tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 On 12/2/2019 at 9:55 PM, Snow88 said: Take a look at the radar south of LI. Bands are starting to pivot north. Expand Maybe Suffolk gets some of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 On 12/2/2019 at 10:01 PM, Ericjcrash said: What? Models this morning were showing 4-8". Some are still showing this. Even Upton just raised NYC to 4-6" sorry some strange reason. Expand No idea why he does this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 On 12/2/2019 at 10:01 PM, Snow88 said: Where are you ? Expand We are going to have to pull an elephant out of a hat to make this one work. What your seeing on radar is deceiving. That’s not snow out there over the ocean and that’s why reflectivity is so high. Once it moves north and transitions to snow it equates to lower rates. I’m not saying it can’t happen, it’s tuff. .5” round one 1.5” round two uws 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 On 12/2/2019 at 9:58 PM, jfklganyc said: No offense guys, time for a reality check: 1. The only place I saw anything above a slushy inch or two for the city was on this forum. No forecast called for that. No one cherry picked the best models having the best runs and publicized that. 2. The models have been very consistent and accurate. I said this last night: snow to snow/rain to rain to snow/rain to snow. They have showed this since Wednesday. If you chose to discount that for a favored run, that is your own fault 3. Temps were always going to be in the 30s, not 20s. That means grassy, wooded, hilly areas of the metro do well. That means the stoop on your Brooklyn walkup does bad. Slushy 1-2 inches on the back end. We discussed that on Thanksgiving...and surprise...that is what we’ve got. South shore does bad in those situations...hello JFK with lowest total. This storm was modeled very well. Many of you just didnt want to see it. It is a long winter. This is 12/1. Pace yourselves. Expand To be fair, the rest of the reaity check is: this was also the only place that had numerous people claim this was going to be a cutter without redevelopment, that no one in the entire metro would see more than 1/2” (im sitting at 4 right now), and that we had already written off december in middle november. The pessimists only see the obnoxious optimistic posts and respond, and the optimists only see the contrarian pessimistic posts and respond. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 On 12/2/2019 at 10:03 PM, Ericjcrash said: Maybe Suffolk gets some of it. Expand These are the bands the hrdps showed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 On 12/2/2019 at 10:01 PM, Ericjcrash said: What? Models this morning were showing 4-8". Some are still showing this. Even Upton just raised NYC to 4-6" sorry some strange reason. Expand And people are thanking him for making that up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 On 12/2/2019 at 10:04 PM, BxEngine said: To be fair, this was also the only place that had numerous people claim this was going to be a cutter without redevelopment, that no one in the entire metro would see more than 1/2” (im sitting at 4 right now), and that we had already written off december in middle november. The pessimists only see the obnoxious optimistic posts and respond, and the optimists only see the contrarian pessimistic posts and respond. Expand And to be fair, he made that up about the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 On 12/2/2019 at 10:06 PM, Rjay said: And to be fair, he made that up about the models. Expand Of course. I only had time to respond to part of it while playing in my snow that didnt happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rickymortyx Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 On 12/2/2019 at 10:01 PM, Snow88 said: Where are you ? Expand I'm in Jersey City we need a miracle for that stuff from Long Island to come all the way over here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 Upton NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Bands of moderate to heavy snow generated by strong mid level fgen forcing extend from NYC up into NE NJ and Orange County. Per earlier spotter reports these are capable of producing between 1-2 inches per hour. Appears these bands will drift slowly W in deep layer E flow to the N of the H7 low off the NJ coast, then weaken this evening while additional bands redevelop to the east this evening over CT and Long Island. Sfc obs and radar 0.5 deg reflectivity/CC show rain/snow line just E of Farmingdale/Huntington as colder air slowly filters eastward. Per the above have issued a winter wx advy to cover all of Nassau and Western Suffolk as colder air filters in and changes precip there to snow this evening. Otherwise winter wx hazards remain in place, with warnings farther inland and advys for NYC metro and most of southern CT, with accums ranging from 4-6 inches in the metro area, as much as 6-10 inches north/west, and mainly 2-4 inches from New Haven eastward. Outside chance that as the sfc low S of Long Island redevelops farther E overnight in response to additional QG forcing riding northward up the E side of the upper low, redeveloping snow bands on the back side of the low could also bring higher amts to the forks of Long Island where 1-2 inches have been fcst. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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