Rjay Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: Everyone giving up on winter today LOL It's late December. That would be silly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 Just now, Rjay said: It's late December. That would be silly. Trust me man , people are all over social media. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 8 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Trust me man , people are all over social media. As of now, a large chunk of January looks awful. People are overreacting though. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: As of now, a large chunk of January looks awful. People are overreacting though. Maybe but the cold is coming. It depends how long it will stay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 2 hours ago, Snow88 said: Trust me man , people are all over social media. Think we have to lose Dec AND Jan before its fair to question the season. For me even if we have a great few weeks post Feb 1 the season would be tainted beyond repair when you lose those two months. In '12/'13 we had about 6" total by 2/1 .. then about 40" the rest of the way. Can never rule a turnaround like that out - but doesn't necessarily save winter by all standards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 49 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Trust me man , people are all over social media. The first half of January =/= the remainder of winter. As noted in the past, one has to be wary of Social Media. Exaggeration is commonplace (big snowstorms, extreme cold, stratospheric warming events, and now claims about an impending demise of winter) on Social Media. Even as January appears likely to be warmer than normal on average, that does not mean that sustained cold with opportunities for snowfall can't develop later in the month or that February could not feature above normal snowfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 I’m one of the biggest warmanistas here, and even I’m confused at all the ship jumping so soon, at least wait a few more weeks lol. It’s late December, our snowiest month on average is February, anything can happen between now and then. Our winters are too erratic to ever get comfortable with any pattern. With that being said, I hope all the ship jumpers are proven right, I hope this winter will be terrible for cold/snow lovers. We’re a couple of days away from mid-winter and the dandelions are back out in full force. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 59 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The first half of January =/= the remainder of winter. As noted in the past, one has to be wary of Social Media. Exaggeration is commonplace (big snowstorms, extreme cold, stratospheric warming events, and now claims about an impending demise of winter) on Social Media. Even as January appears likely to be warmer than normal on average, that does not mean that sustained cold with opportunities for snowfall can't develop later in the month or that February could not feature above normal snowfall. I think the opportunity for cold/snow will reappear once again in late Feb and March. That's been the general theme for years now. Maybe if we're lucky it'll happen earlier in February when climo is still favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: Maybe but the cold is coming. It depends how long it will stay. Some cold will come in after Jan 5 as MJO skirts phase 7-1, but it'll be transient. Afterwards all signs point to a big eastern ridge, which means January is probably toast. It's possible we'll be chasing 01/02 or 11/12 going into Feb though I think another late winter comeback will save us from that bleak outcome. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 17 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I think the opportunity for cold/snow will reappear once again in late Feb and March. That's been the general theme for years now. Maybe if we're lucky it'll happen earlier in February when climo is still favorable. Agreed. The last 10 Januarys at Upton averaged 16.15" which is well above the long term average and beats the same 10 Februarys average by 2". Even bigger January advantage if you take the last five years instead of 10. So we haven't done as poorly in January as it may seem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 27, 2019 Share Posted December 27, 2019 35 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Some cold will come in after Jan 5 as MJO skirts phase 7-1, but it'll be transient. Afterwards all signs point to a big eastern ridge, which means January is probably toast. It's possible we'll be chasing 01/02 or 11/12 going into Feb though I think another late winter comeback will save us from that bleak outcome. what happened to all the cold January forecasts? Forky seemed like he was agreeing with them before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 5 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Some cold will come in after Jan 5 as MJO skirts phase 7-1, but it'll be transient. Afterwards all signs point to a big eastern ridge, which means January is probably toast. It's possible we'll be chasing 01/02 or 11/12 going into Feb though I think another late winter comeback will save us from that bleak outcome. You tend to get in trouble when you start off your posts with a valid point but usually wind up going over the top...You do it a lot. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 On 12/26/2019 at 5:42 PM, forkyfork said: going to island beach state park tomorrow to look for snowy owls. send good luck thx fail. lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kat5hurricane Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 Even if this winter turns out to be a stinker, people need to keep their disappointment in perspective. Lots of spoiled folks who have become accustomed to 30+ inch winters as the norm (in the immediate metro of course). We've been incredibly lucky the last 20 years or so. The 2000s have been the Golden Era of snow since records have been kept so we are long overdue for a string of bad winters. At some point, there will be regression to the mean for us coasties and last year might have started that trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 An important paper concerning the impact of the stratospheric polar vortex... Abstract: The impact of the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex on persistent weather regimes over North America is so far underexplored. Here we show the relationship between four wintertime North American weather regimes and the stratospheric vortex strength using reanalysis data. We find that the strength of the vortex significantly affects the behavior of the regimes. While a regime associated with Greenland blocking is strongly favored following weak vortex events, it is not the primary regime associated with a widespread, elevated risk of extreme cold in North America. Instead, we find that the regime most strongly associated with widespread extremely cold weather does not show a strong dependency on the strength of the lower stratospheric zonal mean zonal winds. We also suggest that stratospheric vortex morphology may be particularly important for cold air outbreaks during this regime. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019GL085592 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 i love when it's warm in winter and all the weenies get upset 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 9 minutes ago, forkyfork said: i love when it's warm in winter and all the weenies get upset Who me??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 46 minutes ago, forkyfork said: i love when it's warm in winter and all the weenies get upset In hindsight these past few days have been very nice. A hoodie or light jacket is all you need. No need for bitter cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted December 28, 2019 Share Posted December 28, 2019 3 hours ago, forkyfork said: i love when it's warm in winter and all the weenies get upset You won’t get any complaint out of whomever is paying for heating fuel. As always ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 Just when you thought winters couldn't get any worse my favorite star Betelgeuse in Orion is dimming 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 This winter blows maybe I’ll jinx it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 17 hours ago, RedSky said: Just when you thought winters couldn't get any worse my favorite star Betelgeuse in Orion is dimming It's still December and we already had a few events. A supernova would be cool though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted December 29, 2019 Share Posted December 29, 2019 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: It's still December and we already had a few events. Shame about Betelgeuse though. The stars are aligning, the Old Ones are stirring, ref. Necronomicon as always..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 Cold rain is the most miserable weather. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
203whiteout Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 On 12/27/2019 at 8:47 PM, WestBabylonWeather said: Really took the 2000s and 2010s winters for granted. This sucks. And right on par with last year. Freaky. This sucks...I feel you’re pain. 2018 Top 2019 Bottom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 1 hour ago, 203whiteout said: And right on par with last year. Freaky. This sucks...I feel you’re pain. 2018 Top 2019 Bottom Even the lake regions are struggling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 I honestly hate this type of weather more than anything. Especially when we are getting into the prime snow weeks. Next 6 weeks are our best for getting a sustained snow pack if we will get one this year. I am hoping that next summer is much more drought like if I am still around the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 10 hours ago, 203whiteout said: And right on par with last year. Freaky. This sucks...I feel you’re pain. 2018 Top 2019 Bottom Despite a few changes vs last year, we still arrive at the same destination. Warm Oct, cold Nov, most of Dec was BN to normal, now Jan could torch and so should Feb before huge blocking sets in for March/April. MJO now expected to enter the same phases we saw last year too. I'm hoping I'm wrong about early spring and Feb but all signs point to those outcomes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 30, 2019 Share Posted December 30, 2019 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: Despite a few changes vs last year, we still arrive at the same destination. Warm Oct, cold Nov, most of Dec was BN to normal, now Jan could torch and so should Feb before huge blocking sets in for March/April. MJO now expected to enter the same phases we saw last year too. I'm hoping I'm wrong about early spring and Feb but all signs point to those outcomes. What outcomes ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now