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WINTER 2019/2020 BANTER


NYCSNOWMAN2020
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46 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Looks like they will suspend the rest of spring training starting today.

From MLBTR 

12:15pm: Passan tweets that in the wake of a conference call with Manfred, MLB ownership groups are expecting not only the suspension of Spring Training games but also a delay to the start of the regular season.

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  • 3 weeks later...
On ‎2‎/‎17‎/‎2020 at 8:00 PM, donsutherland1 said:

It should be noted that 1960 was experiencing strong blocking at this time and that blocking would continue into March at which time the blizzard took place. In contrast, the AO is at extreme positive values and may approach or reach the record set earlier this month in coming days. Unlike in 1960, the cold is far less expansive in the Northern Hemisphere. Even if a mechanism to bring it into the CONUS and then hold it there were available, which seems unlikely, one would not be dealing with the kind of widespread cold that defined March 1960 in the CONUS.

February-1960-February-2020.jpg

Here's how things progressed in 1960:

Feb-Mar-1960.jpg

None of the guidance shows cold of the expanse and magnitude shown during the second half of February, much less over a two week period.

At this point, especially with the current pattern and forecast ensembles, calls for extreme cold on a scale of March 1960 should be viewed with a great deal of skepticism. Extremes, by definition, are low probability events. When no clear variables for producing them are currently visible or available in the guidance, their absence should raise significant "red flags."

 

As noted on February 17:

None of the guidance shows cold of the expanse and magnitude shown during the second half of February, much less over a two week period.

At this point, especially with the current pattern and forecast ensembles, calls for extreme cold on a scale of March 1960 should be viewed with a great deal of skepticism. Extremes, by definition, are low probability events. When no clear variables for producing them are currently visible or available in the guidance, their absence should raise significant "red flags."

Here is the final outcome:

March-1960-March-2020-Final.jpg

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