WINTER 2019/2020 BANTER

[lee59]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Yea that lake affect snow band drifted north this morning and Watertown got hammered. It has since drifted even further north but is expected to drift further south as this day progresses.

[NJwx85]

1 hour ago, Rjay said:

You haven't so Idk man

My guess is that my IP address at work got banned for some reason.

[LibertyBell]

19 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

Dude, you have a young kid. Grow up and act like an adult for your child. If someone talking about warm weather bothers you that much, then I don’t know what to tell you. Life will be harder than a weather forum. The weather does not care about emotions or people on a board. You have to be objective with meteorology which is a science. People cannot instigate weather. People will always be disagreeable with you. Further with everything going on in the past week, weather really isn’t going to be in the top of people’s minds. 

although with weather like this going on, it makes one wish that we could control the weather and change the outcome.

But I doubt that even when that finally becomes doable that the people in charge would even consider altering the weather to make it snow more along the east coast/megalopolis.  If you want snow move to lake effect country, it snows there regardless of the pattern!

 

 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, lee59 said:

Yea that lake affect snow band drifted north this morning and Watertown got hammered. It has since drifted even further north but is expected to drift further south as this day progresses.

looks like the heaviest snow is where we're going eclipse chasing in 2024!  I just hope there's no snow there in April that year.

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Back on February 17, there was chatter that 1960 was an analog for the upcoming March. That's an example of the kind of extreme suggestions that periodically show up on Social Media despite a lack of evidence (the most common extreme idea remains calls for imminent sudden or major stratospheric warming events).

For illustrative purposes, I posted maps showing that the area of cold for the first half of February was much less expansive than it was during the same timeframe in 1960 and that there was an absence of a mechanism to deliver the cold air into the CONUS for an extended period. These were two enormous and highly visible "red flags" that argued against the kind of severe cold seen during March 1960 e.g., monthly average temperature of 33.3° in New York City where the coldest March since then was 1984 with a mean temperature of 36.7°. Nationwide, March 1960 was the 3rd coldest March on record in the contiguous United States with a mean temperature nearly 5.6° below the 1901-2000 average. February 1960 was also the 18th coldest February on record in the contiguous United States.

In terms of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), the February 16-29, 1960 average was -2.566. The preliminary February 16-28, 2020 average is +3.906.

Put another way, had one asked, "What would it take to produce a March outcome similar to that in 1960?" one would have been hard-pressed to invoke such a comparison.

With February nearing a conclusion, it's useful to examine and compare how the second half of February has fared relative to that in 1960. Spoiler alert: there's no meaningful similarity in terms of the development of widespread and severe cold.

Don, what kind of March do you think we'll have?  Others were bringing up March 2012 as an analog, that was pretty mild for us (but not as warm as it was in the Midwest?)

 

[donsutherland1]

59 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Don, what kind of March do you think we'll have?  Others were bringing up March 2012 as an analog, that was pretty mild for us (but not as warm as it was in the Midwest?)

 

I expect a warmer to much warmer than normal March (probably 3°-4° above normal overall) with below to much below normal snowfall. I don't think March will quite reach the extremes seen in such cases as 1945 or 2012. In terms of probabilities, my guess is that 2012-type warmth would have about a one-in-four chance this March (exceptionally high relative to climatology, but still not the most likely outcome).

[LibertyBell]

15 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I expect a warmer to much warmer than normal March (probably 3°-4° above normal overall) with below to much below normal snowfall. I don't think March will quite reach the extremes seen in such cases as 1945 or 2012. In terms of probabilities, my guess is that 2012-type warmth would have about a one-in-four chance this March (exceptionally high relative to climatology, but still not the most likely outcome).

was March 1990 warmer than 2012?  I just remember that very warm streak in the middle of the month.

and March 1998 was warm too, but more towards the end of the month.

 

[donsutherland1]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

was March 1990 warmer than 2012?  I just remember that very warm streak in the middle of the month.

and March 1998 was warm too, but more towards the end of the month.

 

Not in NYC. March 1990 had a mean temperature of 45.1°. March 2012 had a mean temperature of 50.9° (just below the 51.1° record from 1945).

[doncat]

Final Feb and winter stats for my station...Feb mean temp of 38.3° is 7th warmest on record ( 43 years ). Snowfall of a Trace, ties with 1998.  Precip was normal with 3.06".... Met winter was 5th warmest with a measly 6.8" of snow. Precip  was above normal at 13.20" due to a record wet Dec.

[uncle W]

if the city gets a warm March chances for significant snow are slim...

snowfall for the warmest March's in NYC...

year.....,,temp.....snowfall.....

2016.....48.9.....0.9"

2012.....50.9...…..0

2010.....48.2...…..T

2000.....47.2.....0.4"

1998.....45.4.....5.0"

1995.....45.0...…..T

1990.....45.1.....3.1"

1986.....45.1...…..T

1985.....45.8.....0.2"

1979.....46.9...…..T

1977.....46.8.....0.6"

1973.....46.4.....0.2"

1946.....49.8...…..T

1945.....51.1...…..T

1936.....45.2.....1.5"

1929.....45.1.....0.2"

1921.....48.4...…..T

1898.....45.6.....2.0"
 

[bluewave]

 

[SnowFeen1]

Coronavirus has arrived in New York City that’s not good!

[donsutherland1]

Historic warmth in Moscow for winter 2019-2020:

 

[donsutherland1]

For those keeping track of the coronavirus, here's a link to a dashboard created by Johns Hopkins University's Center for Systems Science and Engineering:

http://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

[SnowFeen1]

7 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

For those keeping track of the coronavirus, here's a link to a dashboard created by Johns Hopkins University's Center for Systems Science and Engineering:

http://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

It’s spreading fast. That link you gave us I think has a really fast updated system. I use this link also for the coronavirus

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[lee59]

The extremely cold winter continues in Alaska with much of central and northern Alaska 10-40 below zero this morning.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

3 minutes ago, lee59 said:

The extremely cold winter continues in Alaska with much of central and northern Alaska 10-40 below zero this morning.

It’s actually good for the environment up there as the prolonged cold will help with invasive species. We also rebuilt some sea ice this winter 

[IrishRob17]

2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

JB says it "might" be coming...

 

[donsutherland1]

For those who are interested, Coronavirus/COVID-19 Fact Sheets can be found here:

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/communication/factsheets.html

[SnowFeen1]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

For those who are interested, Coronavirus/COVID-19 Fact Sheets can be found here:

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/communication/factsheets.html

Coronavirus is underrated and Chinese government won’t even allow international journalist in. From the looks of it it’s far worse than flu and way more than 2 percent mortality rate. Also in China there have been rumors that people are dying on the streets just by walking. Sounds to me like the last book on the Bible! 

[forkyfork]

how many times will the dewpoint hit 80 next summer?

[tdp146]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

how many times will the dewpoint hit 80 next summer?

Over/under at 2.5?

[matt9503]

4 hours ago, SnowFeen1 said:

Coronavirus is underrated and Chinese government won’t even allow international journalist in. From the looks of it it’s far worse than flu and way more than 2 percent mortality rate. Also in China there have been rumors that people are dying on the streets just by walking. Sounds to me like the last book on the Bible! 

I have a hard time believing that.

[SnowFeen1]

19 minutes ago, matt9503 said:

I have a hard time believing that.

 

[SnoSki14]

4 hours ago, forkyfork said:

how many times will the dewpoint hit 80 next summer?

I guess it depends on how rainy Spring gets.

Still this string of well above normal weather has me concerned about the summer. We're putting up +5 or better readings like nothing. 

Don't see why that wouldn't continue.

[golfer07840]

12 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

I guess it depends on how rainy Spring gets.

Still this string of well above normal weather has me concerned about the summer. We're putting up +5 or better readings like nothing. 

Don't see why that wouldn't continue.

When was the last time we had a truly hot summer? Feels like it's been quite sometime. I know "hot" is relative, but if I had to guess, I'd say 2014? 

[JustinRP37]

We really need next winter to be a big one. Start early, end late. The local ski areas have really struggled both in attendance and financially. Big mountains up north can weather the storm so to speak, but in CT and downstate NY, this has been a tough winter for them. Know some people in the business and it is really tough on them.

29 minutes ago, golfer07840 said:

When was the last time we had a truly hot summer? Feels like it's been quite sometime. I know "hot" is relative, but if I had to guess, I'd say 2014? 

Summer of 2018 was above normal just about the whole summer with steam bath dew points that limited the daily highs. 

[golfer07840]

Just now, JustinRP37 said:

We really need next winter to be a big one. Start early, end late. The local ski areas have really struggled both in attendance and financially. Big mountains up north can weather the storm so to speak, but in CT and downstate NY, this has been a tough winter for them. Know some people in the business and it is really tough on them.

Summer of 2018 was above normal just about the whole summer with steam bath dew points that limited the daily highs. 

I think of Summer 2018 and all that comes to mind is Rain, more rain and oh yeah.. Rain. 

I do recall very warm and dry in July, however. But it finished very wet and carried right into November. 

[Brian5671]

3 hours ago, JustinRP37 said:

We really need next winter to be a big one. Start early, end late. The local ski areas have really struggled both in attendance and financially. Big mountains up north can weather the storm so to speak, but in CT and downstate NY, this has been a tough winter for them. Know some people in the business and it is really tough on them.

Summer of 2018 was above normal just about the whole summer with steam bath dew points that limited the daily highs. 

I've gone to Mohawk (CT) twice this year and it's actually been decent with all the snowmaking and no crowds at all....  But when there's no snow down here, people just don't go.

[bluewave]