Rtd208 Posted February 17, 2020 Share Posted February 17, 2020 I hope we get an 8" wind driven rainstorm in March. It's never fantasy when it comes to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 11 hours ago, snowman19 said: Joe Bastardi using the March, 1960 analog for next month I heard lmfaooo!! No shame. What’s next? March, 1993? That guy really needs to retire, it’s just sad and pathetic now. He has zero credibility, no one takes him seriously. Talk about doing a crash and burn. His forecasts have been dumpster fires for several years now It should be noted that 1960 was experiencing strong blocking at this time and that blocking would continue into March at which time the blizzard took place. In contrast, the AO is at extreme positive values and may approach or reach the record set earlier this month in coming days. Unlike in 1960, the cold is far less expansive in the Northern Hemisphere. Even if a mechanism to bring it into the CONUS and then hold it there were available, which seems unlikely, one would not be dealing with the kind of widespread cold that defined March 1960 in the CONUS. Here's how things progressed in 1960: None of the guidance shows cold of the expanse and magnitude shown during the second half of February, much less over a two week period. At this point, especially with the current pattern and forecast ensembles, calls for extreme cold on a scale of March 1960 should be viewed with a great deal of skepticism. Extremes, by definition, are low probability events. When no clear variables for producing them are currently visible or available in the guidance, their absence should raise significant "red flags." 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 JB picked March 1960 because March 1896 was not available......I picked March 1960 back in September...too bad it wont be like that...but I still think March 2020 has the biggest snowstorm of the season but that aint saying much...I would not be surprised if the storm is a March version of the early December event...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: It should be noted that 1960 was experiencing strong blocking at this time and that blocking would continue into March at which time the blizzard took place. In contrast, the AO is at extreme positive values and may approach or reach the record set earlier this month in coming days. Unlike in 1960, the cold is far less expansive in the Northern Hemisphere. Even if a mechanism to bring it into the CONUS and then hold it there were available, which seems unlikely, one would not be dealing with the kind of widespread cold that defined March 1960 in the CONUS. Here's how things progressed in 1960: None of the guidance shows cold of the expanse and magnitude shown during the second half of February, much less over a two week period. At this point, especially with the current pattern and forecast ensembles, calls for extreme cold on a scale of March 1960 should be viewed with a great deal of skepticism. Extremes, by definition, are low probability events. When no clear variables for producing them are currently visible or available in the guidance, their absence should raise significant "red flags." the ao was negative from Christmas to April that winter...there was also long stretches of neg nao that winter...he can't be serious about this... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 7 hours ago, rclab said: I was licensed by the board of Ed for common branches and high school, Social Studies. I taught 4 years in a private school, early 70’s. No jobs with the city near bankrupt and a soon to be family I decided to get benefits and go to work for my uncle. Sam was good to me in me for almost 45 years in the USPS. I spent over three decades in the Industrial Engineering department as a support specialist. My love for the weather was solidified when, early on, as a carrier, I delivered two routes in during a 1978 snowstorm in downtown Brooklyn. I left the Service to care for my wife and never regretted that decision. Now, even though the warm season is approaching, Franks words resonate loudly “ and the days grow short, I’m in the Autumn of the year. For that and this forum, a wonderful outlet, I remain grateful. As always ... An education is never wasted. I too am fast approaching the autumn years, and have dodged major bullets already. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 7 hours ago, rclab said: I sometimes went off a belt parkway bridge, past Kings Plaza , can’t remember which one. I used a multiple hook rig but I was mediocre at best. I used blood worms but the damn things go for you when you try to put them on the hook. Not that I blame them. Depending on me as a fishermen would have left the family starving, As always ..... You couldn't even afford to waste money on bloodworms today....I used sandworms because they were cheaper ( when I had a boat ) but in my youth I used earthworms I could dig in the backyard... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: It should be noted that 1960 was experiencing strong blocking at this time and that blocking would continue into March at which time the blizzard took place. In contrast, the AO is at extreme positive values and may approach or reach the record set earlier this month in coming days. Unlike in 1960, the cold is far less expansive in the Northern Hemisphere. Even if a mechanism to bring it into the CONUS and then hold it there were available, which seems unlikely, one would not be dealing with the kind of widespread cold that defined March 1960 in the CONUS. Here's how things progressed in 1960: None of the guidance shows cold of the expanse and magnitude shown during the second half of February, much less over a two week period. At this point, especially with the current pattern and forecast ensembles, calls for extreme cold on a scale of March 1960 should be viewed with a great deal of skepticism. Extremes, by definition, are low probability events. When no clear variables for producing them are currently visible or available in the guidance, their absence should raise significant "red flags." Agreed Don, but will say that we are experiencing extremes right now....again, spring like weather with flowers blooming and insects flying around outside....and grass that has remained green ( some of which is growing ) and herbs and wild plants that are green and growing. I'd call that extreme. This should be our best time of year for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 Colder pattern to end February but dry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 18, 2020 Share Posted February 18, 2020 1877-78...the year without a winter... https://www.wlfi.com/content/news/Local-Weather-History--The-Winter-Less-Winter-of-1877-78-566768271.html 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 What a horrific winter. A February shut out. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 you know this winter sucks when NC/VA will get more snow than us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 These are my predictions for the big upcoming snowstorm, and they are in the banter because i had a dream this snowstorm happened so it is purely for entertainment purposes. Boston 18 inches, New York City 10 inches philly 3 inches 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 55 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: These are my predictions for the big upcoming snowstorm, and they are in the banter because i has a dream this snowstorm happened so it is purely for entertainment purposes. Boston 18 inches, New York City 10 inches philly 3 inches “To sleep: perchance to dream: ay there’s the rub; as always ....... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 52 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: These are my predictions for the big upcoming snowstorm, and they are in the banter because i has a dream this snowstorm happened so it is purely for entertainment purposes. Boston 18 inches, New York City 10 inches philly 3 inches If for entertainment only why even include Boston? Go with something along the lines of the February 25-26 2010 storm. I had 35 inches from that storm, Hunter mountain had close to 60 inches, NYC 20.9 inches and Boston had rain almost the entire storm along with most of New England including Vermont. Now that was a fantasy storm come to life. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 31 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: If for entertainment only why even include Boston? Go with something along the lines of the February 25-26 2010 storm. I had 35 inches from that storm, Hunter mountain had close to 60 inches, NYC 20.9 inches and Boston had rain almost the entire storm along with most of New England including Vermont. Now that was a fantasy storm come to life. 2/25/10 was significant for me but not crippling like just west. I had 10” or so after a ton of rain. I remember it more for wind which foreshadowed the March 80mph wind beast that knocked trees down everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 i always say this but that storm was a few degrees way from being 3' for the metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 21 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: If for entertainment only why even include Boston? Go with something along the lines of the February 25-26 2010 storm. I had 35 inches from that storm, Hunter mountain had close to 60 inches, NYC 20.9 inches and Boston had rain almost the entire storm along with most of New England including Vermont. Now that was a fantasy storm come to life. That storm was the retrogading storm 4 inches in the morning then turned to rain and then 14 inches at night with thundersnow . The gradient was insane between central park and LI. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 2 hours ago, forkyfork said: i always say this but that storm was a few degrees way from being 3' for the metro and the March storms could have been big, but the trapped airmass became too stale/warm to support snow.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 If only we got those late Feb early march storms in 2014 that were suppressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted February 19, 2020 Share Posted February 19, 2020 Last measurable snow here was Jan 18th...just a few traces since. Sheesh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 10 hours ago, jm1220 said: 2/25/10 was significant for me but not crippling like just west. I had 10” or so after a ton of rain. I remember it more for wind which foreshadowed the March 80mph wind beast that knocked trees down everywhere. Only managed 8 here. Every storm that winter skirted my area. But was still epic by this years standards; the 12/09 storm gave us 10, 2/6 gave us 3, 2/10 gave us 11, 2/26 gave us 8. Though some sources in nearby towns had12-13. I didn't measure. Who really cares right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 ITS COMING! The geese have spoken and the dream will make the snowfall records broken Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted February 20, 2020 Author Share Posted February 20, 2020 3 hours ago, NYCweatherNOW said: ITS COMING! The geese have spoken and the dream will make the snowfall records broken Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 I will be looking forward to the snow pics from the south. I forgot what snow looks like. Nice pictures in the upstate NY thread. Lake effect is cranking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 10 hours ago, weatherpruf said: Only managed 8 here. Every storm that winter skirted my area. But was still epic by this years standards; the 12/09 storm gave us 10, 2/6 gave us 3, 2/10 gave us 11, 2/26 gave us 8. Though some sources in nearby towns had12-13. I didn't measure. Who really cares right? You really do seem to be in a black hole for snow. Any idea why and how large an area does it cover? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: I will be looking forward to the snow pics from the south. I forgot what snow looks like. Nice pictures in the upstate NY thread. Lake effect is cranking. Was looking at those last night, what a paradise. When I got out of college 30 odd years ago I had a nice job offer in Syracuse and I didn't take it. A chance at life in paradise and I turned it down, how less frustrating winters could have been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Was looking at those last night, what a paradise. When I got out of college 30 odd years ago I had a nice job offer in Syracuse and I didn't take it. A chance at life in paradise and I turned it down, how less frustrating winters could have been. I feel it also. A years ago lost dream of coastal Maine. Now I wistfully remember the words of a youngster wandering the Kansas flatlands. “Somewhere over the rainbow bluebirds fly and the dreams that you dare to, why oh why can’t I ?” As always ...... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 This is definitely the worst winter I've ever experienced in my lifetime, usually you find a way to sneak a front end thump here or there or a thread the needle storm even in awful winters. It's really looking like there will be no snow the entire month of Feburary in NYC Metro which has to be historic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 On 2/19/2020 at 7:57 AM, NYCweatherNOW said: These are my predictions for the big upcoming snowstorm, and they are in the banter because i had a dream this snowstorm happened so it is purely for entertainment purposes. Boston 18 inches, New York City 10 inches philly 3 inches Its looking very unlikely those 3 cities will hit those totals for this entire winter (maybe Boston has, I'm not sure) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 20, 2020 Share Posted February 20, 2020 15 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Its looking very unlikely those 3 cities will hit those totals for this entire winter (maybe Boston has, I'm not sure) Boston at 15.1 on the season. I'm still ahead of them at 20.5. The line from Albany across to Mass/NH border on north are the only spots doing okay snow wise. Everyone way above normal temp wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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