coastalplainsnowman Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 One reason why not to give up on ‘winter’, from a non-expert to the non-experts. Allow me to pompously and condescendingly use a sports analogy lol. The Baltimore Orioles were horrific last year, correctly forecast by the experts. Multiple times though the Orioles had lopsided victories due to a unique confluence of events on a given random day even though the forecast for a lousy season was right on. Likewise, although we’ve seen winters turn on a dime in a generally unexpected way, that may not turn out to be the case tbis year. It may end the same way it’s been going - lousy for snow lovers. But there’s always a chance that a big snowstorm will pop up out of nowhere - looking like not this weekend, but maybe in 3 weeks or a month. So keep expectations low but don’t give up hope, and let’s see how things work out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 What a boring and shitty winter this has been. I usually pull a few all nighters during the winter. Not even 1 so far this winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Just now, Snow88 said: What a boring and shitty winter this has been. I usually pull a few all nighters during the winter. Not even 1 so far this winter i been tracking west coast winter this season at least something to watch unlike on the east coast... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 1 hour ago, coastalplainsnowman said: One reason why not to give up on ‘winter’, from a non-expert to the non-experts. Allow me to pompously and condescendingly use a sports analogy lol. The Baltimore Orioles were horrific last year, correctly forecast by the experts. Multiple times though the Orioles had lopsided victories due to a unique confluence of events on a given random day even though the forecast for a lousy season was right on. Likewise, although we’ve seen winters turn on a dime in a generally unexpected way, that may not turn out to be the case tbis year. It may end the same way it’s been going - lousy for snow lovers. But there’s always a chance that a big snowstorm will pop up out of nowhere - looking like not this weekend, but maybe in 3 weeks or a month. So keep expectations low but don’t give up hope, and let’s see how things work out. Using the same logic, they finished the season well below average for runs and hits for the league even with a few spurts. Same thing for this winter, will likely end up below average based on statistics. another negative is baseball is 162 games long whereas our snow season is less than 90 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Wasn't much of a winter until March of 1888 either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 1 hour ago, gravitylover said: Wasn't much of a winter until March of 1888 either. I know people tend to look at the pictures the day before the blizzard when it was unseasonably mild and assume they were coming out of a mild winter, but the winter as a whole in 1887/88, temperature wise was brutal by our current standards, and snowfall was about average until March. By month, December 1887 averaged 33.4° with 9.0 inches of snow, January averaged 23.2° (about 16° below what our current January will be) with 11.0 inches of snow. February was somewhat of the head fake month for them, only 3.0 inches of snow but still an average temp of 29.2° for the month. March 1888 averaged 29.9° which is the only March in 150 years to average below 30° in NYC. And then there was the Blizzard, officially measured as 21.0 inches in Manhattan yet surrounding areas like Brooklyn measured 36 inches, New Haven 45 and Albany 48 inches. Uncle W has some great photos of Manhattan after the storm. When you look at those photos and when you consider there was no snow cover the day before, there is now way that was 21 inches in Manhattan. It was 30 minimum and probably closer to the 36 measured in Brooklyn. The tradition of under measuring the large storms in NYC began back then IMO. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 While this doesn’t diminish in any way the recent era snowfall extremes, many of those older storms were undermeasured by modern standards. https://news.ucar.edu/14009/snowfall-measurement-flaky-history Earlier in our weather history, the standard practice was to record snowfall amounts less frequently, such as every 12 or 24 hours, or even to take just one measurement of depth on the ground at the end of the storm. You might think that one or two measurements per day should add up to pretty much the same as measurements taken every 6 hours during the storm. It’s a logical assumption, but you would be mistaken. Snow on the ground gets compacted as additional snow falls. Therefore, multiple measurements during a storm typically result in a higher total than if snowfall is derived from just one or two measurements per day. That can make quite a significant difference. It turns out that it’s not uncommon for the snow on the ground at the end of a storm to be 15 to 20 percent less than the total that would be derived from multiple snowboard measurements. As the cooperative climate observer for Boulder, Colorado, I examined the 15 biggest snowfalls of the last two decades, all measured at the NOAA campus in Boulder. The sum of the snowboard measurements averaged 17 percent greater than the maximum depth on the ground at the end of the storm. For a 20-inch snowfall, that would be a boost of 3.4 inches—enough to dethrone many close rivals on the top-10 snowstorm list that were not necessarily lesser storms! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 all the 1960's storms were measured when they ended...I say that because the final totals match the snow depth... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 4 hours ago, doncat said: We also have to break out of this dry pattern we've gotten into this month...which looks to continue thru the first week of February. The thing that amazes me is the lack of cold highs. January should "always" have some days where highs lock in the 20's, especially in NW Jersey. It's like the opposite of summer where we don't have crazy highs but warm lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 40 minutes ago, JerseyWx said: The thing that amazes me is the lack of cold highs. January should "always" have some days where highs lock in the 20's, especially in NW Jersey. It's like the opposite of summer where we don't have crazy highs but warm lows. we had i think one in december and one earlier this month i think highs were in the 20;s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 1 hour ago, nycwinter said: we had i think one in december and one earlier this month i think highs were in the 20;s. I don't have the stats for my area in particular, but that is still BN. Late December '17 into January '18 had a decent stretch of cold, and as bad as last year was, January featured more arctic air. Next week we welcome February with the potential to see 50 or higher for several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 i remember as a kid we would have at least 5 days under 10 degrees in either december or january for lows now we have gone many winters recently where not even one time did we have a low of 10 degrees ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 This winter has been really active but the lack of blocking really hurt our chances. Imagine if we had a negative NAO with all the storms we had. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 6 minutes ago, Snow88 said: This winter has been really active but the lack of blocking really hurt our chances. Imagine if we had a negative NAO with all the storms we had. Wow and i imagine if i was 7 feet tall i would be a basketball star.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 20 minutes ago, Snow88 said: This winter has been really active but the lack of blocking really hurt our chances. Imagine if we had a negative NAO with all the storms we had. Wow A fair amount of winter forecasts noted that lack of ATL blocking would be an issue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 2 hours ago, nycwinter said: i remember as a kid we would have at least 5 days under 10 degrees in either december or january for lows now we have gone many winters recently where not even one time did we have a low of 10 degrees ... Don't know what station you're using, but low temps last 6 winters here on SI .... 2, 0, -1, 11, 2, 1 . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Going into a thread titled “mid to long range” and complaining about long range discussion is kinda like walking into a strip club and complaining about seeing naked people. if you dont want to discuss long range threats...DONT GO IN THAT THREAD. Its unbelievable that this has to be explained to grown ass adults. 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 20 minutes ago, BxEngine said: Going into a thread titled “mid to long range” and complaining about long range discussion is kinda like walking into a strip club and complaining about seeing naked people. if you dont want to discuss long range threats...DONT GO IN THAT THREAD. Its unbelievable that this has to be explained to grown ass adults. Only to be topped by people who say that they give up on winter...and have to remind everyone with multiple posts on how they gave up. Ok, we get it, thanks, now go haunt some other board. My word. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2020 Share Posted January 29, 2020 Steven dimartino posted on twitter how he is getting threats because this winter has been awful. He isnt the only one who is getting bashed for their winte forecast. Plenty of meteorologists are also getting the same thing. Wtf is wrong with people 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Steve D is a charter member of the ACATT syndicate and an enormous jabroni. Fractionally better than JB, if we're being charitable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 53 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Steven dimartino posted on twitter how he is getting threats because this winter has been awful. He isnt the only one who is getting bashed for their winte forecast. Plenty of meteorologists are also getting the same thing. Wtf is wrong with people Honestly, it doesn't surprise me but I don't condone death threats. People just need to tune out many of the long-range meteorologists that claim every winter will be cold and snowy. It sold for many years and since 2000 was almost always more right than wrong (at least for the snowy part). But I'm tired of people giving JB credibility. Go look at his commentary. It is ALWAYS about why it will be cold. It is his political statement, which is not backed up my science. Even the snowy places this year are now 'cold' it's just their climatology allows for snow this time of year even when warmer than average. An excellent scientist, whether they are a researcher, meteorologist, or even a medical doctor, does not allow 'beliefs' to enter into their thoughts. They look at data and present the data. Now we can debate how many people actually do that, but that is for a different thread. This season is frustrating, but there have been more than a few meteorologists that have called for a lackluster winter, so I think we should go out and appreciate that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: Steven dimartino posted on twitter how he is getting threats because this winter has been awful. He isnt the only one who is getting bashed for their winte forecast. Plenty of meteorologists are also getting the same thing. Wtf is wrong with people Why would anyone waste time on Steve DeMartino? Did he give up his day job in retail? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 1 hour ago, JustinRP37 said: Honestly, it doesn't surprise me but I don't condone death threats. People just need to tune out many of the long-range meteorologists that claim every winter will be cold and snowy. It sold for many years and since 2000 was almost always more right than wrong (at least for the snowy part). But I'm tired of people giving JB credibility. Go look at his commentary. It is ALWAYS about why it will be cold. It is his political statement, which is not backed up my science. Even the snowy places this year are now 'cold' it's just their climatology allows for snow this time of year even when warmer than average. An excellent scientist, whether they are a researcher, meteorologist, or even a medical doctor, does not allow 'beliefs' to enter into their thoughts. They look at data and present the data. Now we can debate how many people actually do that, but that is for a different thread. This season is frustrating, but there have been more than a few meteorologists that have called for a lackluster winter, so I think we should go out and appreciate that. truly cold winters have been few and far between over the last 20 years ( 03-04, 2nd half of '07, 13-14, 14,15 to name a few cold ones) even 09-10 was not all that cold. We lucked out with a bunch of warm/snowy winters, which has in the last 3 years gone to generally warm/wet so folks are now freaking out. Twitter was the worst thing that could happen to weather since it gave the yearly cold/snowy outlook crew a place to spout their snake oil. No one pays attention to a forecast that shows above normal temps and well below normal snow..... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 2 hours ago, Juliancolton said: Steve D is a charter member of the ACATT syndicate and an enormous jabroni. Fractionally better than JB, if we're being charitable. What is the ACATT syndicate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Just now, donsutherland1 said: What is the ACATT syndicate? "All cold, all the time," to borrow a phrase from our neighbors in the NE subforum. Applied to forecasters (and then some) who show a consistent wintry bias in their outlooks... 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: truly cold winters have been few and far between over the last 20 years ( 03-04, 2nd half of '07, 13-14, 14,15 to name a few cold ones) even 09-10 was not all that cold. We lucked out with a bunch of warm/snowy winters, which has in the last 3 years gone to generally warm/wet so folks are now freaking out. Twitter was the worst thing that could happen to weather since it gave the yearly cold/snowy outlook crew a place to spout their snake oil. No one pays attention to a forecast that shows above normal temps and well below normal snow..... Yeah I’ve made that argument before about warm and snowy. It seems that as long as there is snow the ACATT crew is happy which puzzles me. Snow cover is an important metric many glance over. Especially ecologically speaking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 24 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: "All cold, all the time," to borrow a phrase from our neighbors in the NE subforum. Applied to forecasters (and then some) who show a consistent wintry bias in their outlooks... Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 3 hours ago, Snow88 said: Steven dimartino posted on twitter how he is getting threats because this winter has been awful. He isnt the only one who is getting bashed for their winte forecast. Plenty of meteorologists are also getting the same thing. Wtf is wrong with people Some weenies have reached their breaking point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 Winter 2019/2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2020 Share Posted January 30, 2020 A Hecs would make this winter a C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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