December 2019 Discussion

[OrdIowPitMsp]

2” on the nose here this morning. 

[weatherbo]

After a cold start below zero, managed a high of 20 today with around 6" of 17:1 snow...  fell moderately most of the afternoon.  Snowpack is just over 30"... very dense and deep for this early in winter with around 5" liquid equiv.

[weatherbo]

Went to po box this morning.  Took a couple pics of my road.  It's been pretty much one vehicle at a time for a couple weeks.  Luckily, rarely pass anyone on it this time of the year.

 

 

 

[slow poke]

1 hour ago, weatherbo said:

Went to po box this morning.  Took a couple pics of my road.  It's been pretty much one vehicle at a time for a couple weeks.  Luckily, rarely pass anyone on it this time of the year.

 

 

 

Awesome pics Bo, what's the elevation where your place is at and how long does it take you to get down into Marquette roughly? I would have to think the Huron's have some of the deepest snow depth right now not only in MI but the mid west. Not sure what its like out east in the higher elevations or snow belts right now but you might have some of the deepest depth east of the Rockies. 

[weatherbo]

5 hours ago, slow poke said:

Awesome pics Bo, what's the elevation where your place is at and how long does it take you to get down into Marquette roughly? I would have to think the Huron's have some of the deepest snow depth right now not only in MI but the mid west. Not sure what its like out east in the higher elevations or snow belts right now but you might have some of the deepest depth east of the Rockies. 

Hey... My house sits at 1600' and the high spot on my property is about 1640'.  If roads/weather are good, it take about 25 min to get to Marquette.  It's actually closer to go to Big Bay but as you know, that's a giant dead-end. 

The average depth here at my house is around 32", but I imagine some areas west of here, too remote to get to this time of year and even higher in elevation, may have a little more possibly.  The highest reported depth I can find up here is Painsdale at 37" and even MQT has a 28" depth.  

Unless a giant thaw happens or it just stops snowing, I can see where a 5' peak depth may happen again this year.

[OrdIowPitMsp]

Another quick hitter late this morning dropped nearly an inch. This nickel and dime pattern we’ve been in lately has been great!!!

[Pascy619]

Rest of December looks quite boring on the GFS and Euro as of late... 

[harrisale]

FWIW the system tonight into tomorrow has trended a lot snowier for YYZ. If the NAM is to be believed we could have a nice little 2-4” on the ground by Sunday. 

[Snowstorms]

51 minutes ago, harrisale said:

FWIW the system tonight into tomorrow has trended a lot snowier for YYZ. If the NAM is to be believed we could have a nice little 2-4” on the ground by Sunday. 

I seen that, but I have my doubts.

Both HRDPS and Nam keep sfc temps around the freezing mark. I think those around King Road and north have the best chance for accumulating snowfall (>2"). I'm going with Trace to max 1" near the lake. 

[harrisale]

6 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

I seen that, but I have my doubts.

Both HRDPS and Nam keep sfc temps around the freezing mark. I think those around King Road and north have the best chance for accumulating snowfall (>2"). I'm going with Trace to max 1" near the lake. 

Ah maybe 4" was too bullish on the high side. Shouldn't have bit on a single NAM run. It's backed off a bit now. Actually a pretty close call for a YYZ storm but the phase didn't quite happen in time.

[Snowstorms]

6 minutes ago, harrisale said:

Ah maybe 4" was too bullish on the high side. Shouldn't have bit on a single NAM run. It's backed off a bit now. Actually a pretty close call for a YYZ storm but the phase didn't quite happen in time.

HRDPS is still quite bullish on snow amounts for the GTA, lol. I don't think any of us will get anymore than an inch. 

Hows Oakville on the season? 

[harrisale]

48 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

HRDPS is still quite bullish on snow amounts for the GTA, lol. I don't think any of us will get anymore than an inch. 

Hows Oakville on the season? 

Going to be fun to watch. A few tenths of a degree or some evap cooling might make the difference.

I'm just in town for 2 weeks visiting the family but according to the parents about 29cm on the season so far. Majority from the early Nov event. 

Moved to YVR a year ago so hoping for some action while I'm here!

[Snowstorms]

10 hours ago, harrisale said:

Going to be fun to watch. A few tenths of a degree or some evap cooling might make the difference.

I'm just in town for 2 weeks visiting the family but according to the parents about 29cm on the season so far. Majority from the early Nov event. 

Moved to YVR a year ago so hoping for some action while I'm here!

The switchover happened a little quicker than I anticipated. Got around 0.5" (1.3cm) so far and its coming down pretty nicely right now. 

29cm isn't bad. YYZ is sitting at 38cm. We seem to be on the higher end than most of Ontario, even compared to Ottawa. It's been a very quiet December. 

Wow, that's nice! I'm assuming for work? Vancouver is one of my fav places in Canada. El Nino's and BC snow don't mix well, but I hope you get atleast one storm this winter. Nice to have you back! 

[weatherbo]

16 degrees, snowing pretty good tonight... probably 3" down.  Warm fire.

[Hoosier]

This has been a really dry month so far around northern IL/northwest IN.  Surprisingly dry because there was really no indication of it going in.  The monthly models like the CFS and CanSIPS weren't dry for December.  And the CPC outlook went with elevated chances of wetter than average.  Not sure what the Euro had.  Still could turn it around but time will be getting short as it looks pretty benign for a while.  

[Snowstorms]

4 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

This has been a really dry month so far around northern IL/northwest IN.  Surprisingly dry because there was really no indication of it going in.  The monthly models like the CFS and CanSIPS weren't dry for December.  And the CPC outlook went with elevated chances of wetter than average.  Not sure what the Euro had.  Still could turn it around but time will be getting short as it looks pretty benign for a while.  

Same. And not happening, lol. 

Not a single storm on the models from now until Christmas. Unless the last 5 days of the month are rockin', this is going to turn out to be another crappy December. Gotta hope for a turnaround come January. 

 

 

[Hoosier]

Driest December 1-14 for Chicago listed below.  This is the driest first two weeks of December in the last 30 years.

 

0.03"  1957

0.07"  1872, 1888, 1896, 1988

0.10"  1883, 1941, 1989

0.11"  1962

0.13"  1933

0.14"  1898, 1929

0.15"  1876, 1913

0.16"  1900, 1930, 2019

 

[Hoosier]

Find the snow zone

[Chicago Storm]

The changes are finally coming...

[Hoosier]

28 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

The changes are finally coming...

Nice

[RogueWaves]

Let's see if my dice toss comes up box cars or snake eyes with tonight's headlines

Quote

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Tuesday)
Issued at 321 PM EST Tue Dec 17 2019

No significant changes in our forecast thinking for tonight and
Wednesday. The passage of an arctic front will bring a short
period of snow showers with gusty winds and some blowing snow to
locations near and west of US-131 tonight into early Wednesday.
All areas likely will have snow showers from late afternoon over
the northern sections early to mid evening over the southern
sections of our Forecast Area.

We have a digging northern stream shortwave and assoicated
upper level closed upper low that makes it almost as far south as
Lake Superior tonight. That puts our area in the cyclonic side of
the upper jet for a few about 12 hours. It is during this time we
get deeper moisture with cyclonic (to over 700 mb) and there is
strong lift in the DGZ. Also with the 30 knots northwest winds,
the snow bands will make it well inland and the max snowfall band
will be inland of the lake shore, nearly one entire county inland
in fact. So the heaviest snowfall amounts will be closer to US-131
than US-31. At any one location the stronger snow showers will be
only around 3 hours, so nearly all the expected accumulations
will have to happen in the time frame. During that time the latest
HRRR shows the best lift is centered in the DGZ so this will make
for fluffy snowflakes and that will allow higher snowfall
amounts. The HREF and HRRRv4 are suggesting 1 to 2 inches over our
advisory area but with some localized bands of 2 to even 4
inches. Given the gusty winds assoicated with this there will be
blowing and drifting snow with these snow squalls.

 

[SchaumburgStormer]

1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:

The changes are finally coming...

Been needed a long time. Seems every winter lately the discussion has come up at least once. 

[Hoosier]

4 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Been needed a long time. Seems every winter lately the discussion has come up at least once. 

Definitely a step forward.  There will still be situations that the new zones don't really handle well, especially some early season snows when there may be a west/east gradient due to the warm lake.  When those storms arise they can just go with lesser amounts near the lake wording.  

[Cary67]

On 12/14/2019 at 10:26 PM, Hoosier said:

Driest December 1-14 for Chicago listed below.  This is the driest first two weeks of December in the last 30 years.

 

0.03"  1957

0.07"  1872, 1888, 1896, 1988

0.10"  1883, 1941, 1989

0.11"  1962

0.13"  1933

0.14"  1898, 1929

0.15"  1876, 1913

0.16"  1900, 1930, 2019

 

Gotta love it. After a year where it won't stop raining

[Chicago Storm]

2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Definitely a step forward.  There will still be situations that the new zones don't really handle well, especially some early season snows when there may be a west/east gradient due to the warm lake.  When those storms arise they can just go with lesser amounts near the lake wording.  

Exactly what I was thinking. 

Definitely a positive step, but I could see how the northern zone will still be an issue at times.

[LansingWeather]

3 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

Let's see if my dice toss comes up box cars or snake eyes with tonight's headlines

 

Doesnt really matter with the torch incoming....

[weatherbo]

8 degrees with snow showers... Several inches of snow the past 24 hours here.  Pic from a squall earlier today (lasted 5 minutes).  Must be somewhere around 80" for the season so far. 

[WestMichigan]

Picked up 1.5” so far his evening and still snowing. Nice to see white again. Hope it makes it to your area tonight Rogue. 

[TugHillMatt]

3 minutes ago, WestMichigan said:

Picked up 1.5” so far his evening and still snowing. Nice to see white again. Hope it makes it to your area tonight Rogue. 

Hey, this is "blackrock" who used to live in Spring Lake. It's been some time since I have checked in on this forum. Saw you guys were getting some LES, so thought I'd check in. I see Bo is still making everybody drool at the mouth with his deep winter shots.

I miss the beauty and friendliness of West Michigan. The wife and I have talked about moving back years and years from now.

[RogueWaves]

17 minutes ago, WestMichigan said:

Picked up 1.5” so far his evening and still snowing. Nice to see white again. Hope it makes it to your area tonight Rogue. 

Thanks! The pre-frontal WSW winds are unfavorable here, but they're shifting more westerly and the ground is whitening up now. I have measurable snow for the 2nd time in a week, better than some can say. Glad to see you scoring too! Let's Winter! (for a day or two anyways)