December 2019 Discussion

[Hoosier]

After the current storm goes by, things look to settle down a bit.  Real concern that a large chunk of the month is blah.

[Hoosier]

On another note, Chicago is chasing some history in the form of the wettest year on record.  A drier than average November has set things back a bit but still currently in 5th place.

Wettest years on record:

2008:  50.86"

2011:  49.83"

1983:  49.35"

2018:  49.23"

2019:  47.62" and counting

[Snowstorms]

Looking like a wintry mess with a mixed bag of precipitation across Southern Ontario into Western New York this weekend. 

From London up until Hamilton and eastward towards Buffalo/Niagara, there could be a decent amount of ice accretion, with upwards of 0.30-0.40". Freezing rain seems more likely given the layer of warmth at 700 and 850mb. 

The GTA is far more tricker. It seems to be riding along the thin layer of warmth at 700mb with subfreezing surface temperatures. This would likely imply a sleet changing to snow type of event. Now how quickly that transition happens and whether any deformation band sets up will depend how much snow falls. As of now I'm leaning towards 2-3", but this is a tricky forecast. 

P.S. Happy Thanksgiving to my fellow Americans!  

[Snowstorms]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

On another note, Chicago is chasing some history in the form of the wettest year on record.  A drier than average November has set things back a bit but still currently in 5th place.

Wettest years on record:

2008:  50.86"

2011:  49.83"

1983:  49.35"

2018:  49.23"

2019:  47.62" and counting

Wow! That's alot of precipitation. 

2008 is YYZ's wettest year as well, but we only got 41.3" that year. Quite the contrast given the relatively short distance between Chicago and Toronto. 

It's also crazy how 4 out of the top 5 have occurred in the last 11 years.

[Pascy619]

Not what I was hoping to see. :\

[Gino27]

2 hours ago, WI_SNOWSTORM said:

Not what I was hoping to see. :\

Unfortunately I think this will be the case for most of December. With MJO likely heading into phases 3 and 4, and +EPO/-PNA it'll be really tough to get any substantial cold in the area. The big question going forward will be the amplitude of the warmth and how long it stick around.

[Hoosier]

7 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

It's also crazy how 4 out of the top 5 have occurred in the last 11 years.

Yeah, that really stands out.  Probably not an entirely random occurrence.

[Gino27]

9 hours ago, Hoosier said:

After the current storm goes by, things look to settle down a bit.  Real concern that a large chunk of the month is blah.

Again, I see lots of similarities to last year. Maybe the set ups are very different but December sucked last year.

[Hoosier]

CFS didn't go the way that most of us would have wanted in the last few runs.  Looking at the weeklies, it has a colder turn later in the month though.

[Snowstorms]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

CFS didn't go the way that most of us would have wanted in the last few runs.  Looking at the weeklies, it has a colder turn later in the month though.

Not surprising. This entire decade for the most part has had warm December's with the exception of 2010, 2013, and 2017. This year is no different! 

There's a good chance we see a north pacific jet extension by the 2nd of week of December which will likely flood the nation with warm Pacific air. Now whether that continues till Christmas or beyond, remains to be seen. 

[Snowstorms]

Quite the model battle going on right now for tomorrow's storm. Practically all 12z runs this afternoon have the GTA getting 4-8" tomorrow. Euro going all out with 8-12" .  Latest HRRR has more SLT/PL than snow and keeps the GTA to within 2-4". 

I'm still skeptical as to how much snow falls tomorrow. How quickly we transition over to snow will depend how much the GTA will get. Niagara/Buffalo area will likely get a mix between FZRA and PL. 

 

[Spartman]

Really going to pay for this November next month.

[Stebo]

36 minutes ago, Spartman said:

Really going to pay for this November next month.

They better be banking on a wet end of the month because it looks like a fat sack of ZzZzZs for the first half of the month

[beavis1729]

1 hour ago, Snowstorms said:

Not surprising. This entire decade for the most part has had warm December's with the exception of 2010, 2013, and 2017. This year is no different! 

There's a good chance we see a north pacific jet extension by the 2nd of week of December which will likely flood the nation with warm Pacific air. Now whether that continues till Christmas or beyond, remains to be seen. 

 Our climo is a joke...and this is the crap that happens when your normal high is around 40. Highs in the mid 20s should be a typical seasonably cold day, as the days are short and we’re in December...but unfortunately a day like that is just as likely as a day in the mid 50s. We fight climo all winter.

We shouldn’t need to have a million indices go right to get snow and cold. The calendar should be enough. Not saying we need 4 feet of snow and subzero temps...but at a minimum, 5” of snow each week with highs 25-35, and crisp mornings in the teens. Nothing crazy...just typical winter weather. Then an occasional good week with a foot+ of snow and some subzero mornings. 
 

It’s maddening to go even 3 days with average daily temps above freezing and no accumulating snow and no snow pack...and then 3 days becomes 5 days, 5 becomes 8, 8 becomes 12...and before you know it, 3 weeks are wasted when the days are shortest. So so so so tired of it. Why do we hope for winter in our area, with our unbearable climo? Of course we can occasionally have big storms and periods of wintry weather...but winter is supposed to be a season, not disjointed events. 

[Hoosier]

I knew beavis could only hold back for so long.  That was a relatively tame "rant" though.  

There is some hope later in the month I think.  Not that it's absolutely impossible to fumble into a snow event in the first 10-15 days of the month, but better chance for more sustained winter weather should come after.  

[Cary67]

3 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

 Our climo is a joke...and this is the crap that happens when your normal high is around 40. Highs in the mid 20s should be a typical seasonably cold day, as the days are short and we’re in December...but unfortunately a day like that is just as likely as a day in the mid 50s. We fight climo all winter.

We shouldn’t need to have a million indices go right to get snow and cold. The calendar should be enough. Not saying we need 4 feet of snow and subzero temps...but at a minimum, 5” of snow each week with highs 25-35, and crisp mornings in the teens. Nothing crazy...just typical winter weather. Then an occasional good week with a foot+ of snow and some subzero mornings. 
 

It’s maddening to go even 3 days with average daily temps above freezing and no accumulating snow and no snow pack...and then 3 days becomes 5 days, 5 becomes 8, 8 becomes 12...and before you know it, 3 weeks are wasted when the days are shortest. So so so so tired of it. Why do we hope for winter in our area, with our unbearable climo? Of course we can occasionally have big storms and periods of wintry weather...but winter is supposed to be a season, not disjointed 

Expecting weather thats not normal is always tough sledding.pun intended

[michsnowfreak]

8 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

Not surprising. This entire decade for the most part has had warm December's with the exception of 2010, 2013, and 2017. This year is no different! 

There's a good chance we see a north pacific jet extension by the 2nd of week of December which will likely flood the nation with warm Pacific air. Now whether that continues till Christmas or beyond, remains to be seen. 

Dec 2016 was colder than average here. This post made me look at the cold season months this decade at Detroit to see how many were colder than average and how many were warmer than average. To keep it simple, 0.1° either way is either colder or warmer than average, I did not do any of that 1ﾟ within normal type of stuff.

 

 Not surprisingly, December is the black sheep for cold anomalies. Averages exist for a reason, sometimes it's above, sometimes it's below. Cold season months more often than not finished colder than avg this decade.

2010s

Nov 6 cold, 4 mild

Dec 4 cold, 6 mild (ASSUMING 2019 is mild)

Jan 6 cold, 4 mild

Feb 5 cold, 5 mild

Mar 7 cold, 3 mild

Apr 6 cold, 4 mild

[Gino27]

I really do hope the Pacific jet doesn't sit there and flood us warm air for too long. We had 4-5 weeks of it last year and it drove me crazy

[wishforsnow]

Looking like it is going to do like it did last December. We got snow in November then it warmed up in December and the time Christmas came around I had bare spots in the yard where the snow melted away. Generally should be buried under three feet of snow by Christmas. Then mid January the cold came back and the lake effect was kicked into high gear through March. 

[weatherbo]

Looks like 10" or so of super dense snow fell overnight and still coming down hard... in excess of 2' on the ground now.

Looking out on the deck as it gets daylight.  Haven't shoveled out there all week and I've had over 30".

[bowtie`]

You must have some serious snow removal equipment. My back aches just looking at your pic.

[weatherbo]

47 minutes ago, bowtie` said:

You must have some serious snow removal equipment. My back aches just looking at your pic.

It's a lot of work.

Still snowing nicely with over a foot now and a few more inches possible...

picnic table

[cyclone77]

May see a few flurries later on.  Looking pretty quiet going forward, which has become par for the course for December.

[Gino27]

Moving right along!

[Snowstorms]

12 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Dec 2016 was colder than average here. This post made me look at the cold season months this decade at Detroit to see how many were colder than average and how many were warmer than average. To keep it simple, 0.1° either way is either colder or warmer than average, I did not do any of that 1ﾟ within normal type of stuff.

 

 Not surprisingly, December is the black sheep for cold anomalies. Averages exist for a reason, sometimes it's above, sometimes it's below. Cold season months more often than not finished colder than avg this decade.

2010s

Nov 6 cold, 4 mild

Dec 4 cold, 6 mild (ASSUMING 2019 is mild)

Jan 6 cold, 4 mild

Feb 5 cold, 5 mild

Mar 7 cold, 3 mild

Apr 6 cold, 4 mild

Relatively the same here at YYZ. However,  I give a bit of a range and therefore consider "near normal" as a metric too. 

Trends and the overall pattern seems to favour a warm December. Although, I don't think it will be a blowtorch like 2011-12 or 2015. As it stands a mix between 2014 and 2018 seems likely. Both of which were +ENSO years. Colder December's are more common in La Nina's. 

[Snowstorms]

A whole lot of zzz's for the first week of December. 

[Hoosier]

Insane pics Bo.

[DAFF]

Gut says, Bo will be hunkered in for a bit yet... Pace of life, is parallel to your surroundings.

[Hoosier]

On 11/29/2019 at 11:08 AM, Hoosier said:

On another note, Chicago is chasing some history in the form of the wettest year on record.  A drier than average November has set things back a bit but still currently in 5th place.

Wettest years on record:

2008:  50.86"

2011:  49.83"

1983:  49.35"

2018:  49.23"

2019:  47.62" and counting

Chicago has recorded 47.99" of precipitation through November 30, which means that 2.88" is needed to break the all-time record.  In 148 years of weather records, Chicago has recorded over 2.88" of precip in December a total of 30 times (30/148=20.3%). 

Average December precip is 2.25" and CPC has increased probabilities of a wetter than average December, so we'll see if it can be achieved.  A more likely outcome would be to surpass 50" but fall short of the top spot, but that's not as cool so hopefully the record is broken.  

[Harry Perry]

Ahh.. this time of the year is the best. Cold nights in the 20’s and days in the 30’s.. until a storm system moves in and we stick on the warm side of it time and time again. 
 

One word for the outlook of December, “Dank”.