weatherpruf Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 On 11/29/2019 at 4:17 PM, Ericjcrash said: 1/26-27 less snow but a more interesting system IMO Expand Took a lot of people by surprise, even ol' Henry Marguisity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 On 11/29/2019 at 4:18 PM, HVSnowLover said: Yep basically, I don't get the negativity this was never and isn't a big storm for the immediate metro area. Be happy if Monday surprises but it's December 1st with a primary going to the lakes, its great to see any frozen precip. Expand True. But strange things can happen these days. Snow in Oct. Snow in Nov. And we seem to never get great patterns these days. A few inches would be nice. Statistically, December snow bodes well for the rest of the winter. Though i wouldn't bet the house on it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Continuing to see the closed low trend south on the models. Makes me think the heaviest banding from the closed low could be near the city and in central NJ. Could be some sleet/FRZA with the front end though probably not much otherwise. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 On 11/29/2019 at 4:23 PM, SnoSki14 said: Continuing to see the closed low trend south on the models. Makes me think the heaviest banding from the closed low could be near the city and in central NJ. Could be some sleet/FRZA with the front end though probably not much otherwise. Expand Yeah it's not your typical "back end"/changeover snow that rarely materializes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 On 11/29/2019 at 4:25 PM, Ericjcrash said: Yeah it's not your typical "back end"/changeover snow that rarely materializes. Expand It's not, it's a real possibility but its probably more going to be heavy mood flakes than a sustained snowstorm on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 On 11/29/2019 at 4:25 PM, Ericjcrash said: Yeah it's not your typical "back end"/changeover snow that rarely materializes. Expand I think we could see a November 2012 repeat with heavy banding as the closed low slowly moves eastward. GFS is a mess at the surface, big shock, but given it's depiction aloft it would really produce for us. If current trends continue then I think we see 6-10" for our region from the closed low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 On 11/29/2019 at 4:27 PM, SnoSki14 said: I think we could see a November 2012 repeat with heavy banding as the closed low slowly moves eastward. GFS is a mess at the surface, big shock, but given it's depiction aloft it would really produce for us. Expand I agree. Definitely too early to bank on it but there should be good banding somewhere reasonably close. Where is still up for debate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Cmc is coming in cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 On 11/29/2019 at 4:29 PM, Snow88 said: Cmc is coming in cold Expand Seems like it's been the coldest model each run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 The snow doesnt want to stop on the cmc 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 On 11/29/2019 at 4:34 PM, Snow88 said: The snow doesnt want to stop on the cmc Expand nice stationary banding signature in CT and LI. it's fun to see this stuff but mesoscale details will not be sorted out until 12-24h before they occur. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 NAM has company. Maybe not the company we want but Canadian h5 is nice. Likely ripping at 72 hours regardless of pytpe map on tidbits. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 On 11/29/2019 at 4:27 PM, SnoSki14 said: I think we could see a November 2012 repeat with heavy banding as the closed low slowly moves eastward. GFS is a mess at the surface, big shock, but given it's depiction aloft it would really produce for us. If current trends continue then I think we see 6-10" for our region from the closed low. Expand Not used to seeing you so bullish, gets my attention... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 On 11/29/2019 at 4:39 PM, weatherpruf said: Not used to seeing you so bullish, gets my attention... Expand The closed h5 feature means business Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Anyone remember the Xmas 2002 storm? It was supposed to be mostly rain with more snow in NW areas. Started off that way, but changed over to snow and a band stalled over NYC, Long Island and CT, Ended up with 6-10 in those areas. That evolution reminds me of what the CMC is showing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Is that 18 hours of non stop light to moderate snow on the Canadian? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Thermals(other than sfc) are interesting on CMC. Pretty damn close to a big hit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 getting close but A LOT left to iron out that said many people have kids heading back to school = ME ----> can you guys give me a guesstimate as to the start time for this as 88 and I were discussing earlier in this thread it was looking like mid afternoon, has that changed ? What time ????????? Thanks in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 On 11/29/2019 at 4:34 PM, Snow88 said: The snow doesnt want to stop on the cmc Expand 35 straight hours of precip on the CMC, a lot of it light but definitely long duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 UKIE looks to develop the secondary by Cape May and then ACY... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 On 11/29/2019 at 4:45 PM, Amped said: Anyone remember the Xmas 2002 storm? It was supposed to be mostly rain with more snow in NW areas. Started off that way, but changed over to snow and a band stalled over NYC, Long Island and CT, Ended up with 6-10 in those areas. That evolution reminds me of what the CMC is showing. Expand That wasn't much out my way; a few inches IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 On 11/29/2019 at 4:51 PM, NEG NAO said: Expand CT could be the jackpot spot as I think models will continue to trend slightly further south with the closed low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 On 11/29/2019 at 4:52 PM, mikem81 said: UKIE looks to develop the secondary by Cape May and then ACY... Expand Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 On 11/29/2019 at 4:51 PM, NEG NAO said: Expand Just once I'd like to see a map that didn't show me having one forecast in my front yard and one in my backyard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 On 11/29/2019 at 4:51 PM, NEG NAO said: Expand The 10:1 maps are deceptive for the coast. Won't be 10:1 ratios especially during periods of lighter precip 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 How's Ukie looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 On 11/29/2019 at 4:59 PM, David-LI said: How's Ukie looking? Expand Tucked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 On 11/29/2019 at 5:01 PM, Ericjcrash said: Tucked. Expand Good look The secondary low would be sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 On 11/29/2019 at 4:45 PM, Amped said: Anyone remember the Xmas 2002 storm? It was supposed to be mostly rain with more snow in NW areas. Started off that way, but changed over to snow and a band stalled over NYC, Long Island and CT, Ended up with 6-10 in those areas. That evolution reminds me of what the CMC is showing. Expand That closed low and what rotates around it likely determines how this ends up for most of us. If the south trend and later occluding is real, it could be a nice surprise. They can produce like Xmas 2002 but those are the rare cases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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