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Possible Dec 1-3 Winter Storm


Zelocita Weather
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What we have seen here, is a cluster muck of chaos today

two competing surface lows in the Atlantic

A ULL  on the hunt for them to the south west

out of sync....with no capture...no stalling...no bombogenesis for the Metro

throw in hundred horrid model runs....for good measure

I picked a bad day to stop drinking......:poster_oops:

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

There’s warm advection development going on just northeast of the Bronx. It’s going to come down the next 7-8 hours. Have faith guys the models are better than our radars, right now it started snowing again, it’ll get more humid and it’s going to come down. 

Funny if NYC on east ends up getting in on this. As for my area, accumulating snows stopped hours ago. If it's snowing at all now I sure can't tell. My footsteps from 4 pm are still there in the snow uncovered....this is the usual pattern here though. Get a burst or two followed by light stuff for a few hours and then it craps out. Everyone in the neighborhood scratching their heads asking what happened.....

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1 minute ago, Doorman said:

What we have seen here, is a cluster muck of chaos today

two competing surface lows in the Atlantic

A ULL to on the hunt for them to the south west

out of sync....with no capture...no stalling...no bombogenesis for the Metro

throw in hundred horrid model runs....for good measure

I picked a bad day to stop drinking......:poster_oops:

 

 

 

If you stuck to 1-3 for a goodportion of the area you nailed it.

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9 minutes ago, Doorman said:

What we have seen here is a cluster muck of chaos today

two competing surface lows in the atlantic

A ULL to on the hunt for  them to the south west

out of sync....with no capture...no stalling...no bombogenesis for the Metro

throw in hundred horrid model runs....for good measure

I picked a bad day to stop drinking......:poster_oops:

 

 

 

Curious to know why the models had a better organized solution.  What did the models miss? 

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5 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

There’s warm advection development going on just northeast of the Bronx. It’s going to come down the next 7-8 hours. Have faith guys the models are better than our radars, right now it started snowing again, it’ll get more humid and it’s going to come down. 

Warm advection? That was over the weekend. 

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The timing was just off here. We had heavy snow late morning to early afternoon, but it struggled to accumulate due to temps slightly above freezing and a warm ground. Now at night when it can accumulate more easily, we're only getting light snow. So even right now the pavement remains wet. A shame to have a winter storm warning and not even get any accumulation on pavement. I thought I'd at least have a little shoveling to do. Too bad.

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5 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

Curious to know why the models had a better organized solution.  What did the models miss? 

Capture of one area of low pressure...for starters

that second spoke of energy(low pressure) has been like a maverick clipper low ....outrunning of the larger Gyre of the  UUL...

if this makes any sense to anyone :rolleyes:

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11 minutes ago, Doorman said:

Capture of one area of low pressure...for starters

that second spoke of energy(low pressure) has been like a maverick clipper low ....outrunning of the larger Gyre of the  UUL...

if this makes any sense to anyone :rolleyes:

Kind of does.  Sounds like a timing issue.  Thanks for the explanation.  Very interesting. 

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2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Hrrr has it going through midnight 

This was a disaster of a forecast. No way around it. Anyone that has some semblance of forecast recognition knew that this was going to be a non-event for most in  this sub-forum.

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9 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Radar looks like we are starting to see some consolidation in banding. If we do not reach moderate levels it’s not going to cut it in the city. UHI doing its thing right now

Is UHI getting stronger with time?  If so, the snow would need to be heavier for the same amount to accumulate right in the city compared to years ago. 

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5 minutes ago, Enigma said:

This was a disaster of a forecast. No way around it. Anyone that has some semblance of forecast recognition knew that this was going to be a non-event for most in  this sub-forum.

 

E

you should work for Upton then...:lol:

  • Haha 1
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