SnowGoose69 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Just now, Rjay said: Crushes areas NW of NYC and it manages to crush Philly too It’s basically like 4/1/97 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Just now, Rjay said: Crushes areas NW of NYC and it manages to crush Philly too So close but no cigar. Brutal. Stall appears to be real though...gonna be a sweet radar loop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingbaus Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 How does Philly get crushed and our area gets screwed. Is the dryspot that bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: It’s basically like 4/1/97 Just saw clown map. Ouch. Makes sense given climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Just saw clown map. Ouch. Makes sense given climo That’s not climo that’s cause the low is so close to us and we get rain, we have better climo than Philly 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 6 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: That’s not climo that’s cause the low is so close to us and we get rain Yes, this. Everyone keeps making it about climo. It's not so much about climo as much as how long the primary holds on and the track/strength of the secondary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Just now, NYCweatherNOW said: That’s not climo that’s cause the low is so close to us and we get rain Yeah, nothing to do with the bathtub to our SE with an onshore flow... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 11 minutes ago, kingbaus said: I heard the UKie is showing us the goods. Why are you asking about it? I thought you gave up on this storm already. Being 3 days out with the model volatility we've been having I can see that was a wise statement . Maybe try keeping the emotions in check. It's only beginning of December 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Just now, Ericjcrash said: Yeah, nothing to do with the bathtub to our SE with an onshore flow... Nothing if the low was just thirty miles east it would bring a foot of snow to the city! Sorry but I would think you would know how weather works by now but I guess you need a like me to teach you 2 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Saw a local news station has put out a map already with numbers! Kinda bullish too. This is a mistake IMO this early, especially for the tri-state area. This is just gonna scare/hype up the GP. Maybe they felt they needed to do it being it's going to impact one of the busiest travel days of the year, idk. It's the numbers on the map thing already I think is unnecessary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Euro is warmer initially than the 12z run. Wrap around snows clobber NW areas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Euro halved from 12z. Still best case scenario and decent early season event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Euro and CMC have the low stalling off Cape Cod. GFS stalls closer to Long Island. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 2 hours ago, Ericjcrash said: Euro halved from 12z. Still best case scenario and decent early season event. No one should be mad about a few inches. Another day today to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Euro stalls the coastal low near SNE while the GFS stalls it near the NYC latitude resulting in a few inches for our area. SNE is once again smoked on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 24 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Euro stalls the coastal low near SNE while the GFS stalls it near the NYC latitude resulting in a few inches for our area. SNE is once again smoked on this run. One of the things we have going for us in that scenario is the tendency to follow the Gulf Stream. High resolution models will have a better handle on that as we get closer. It’s the difference between a warning event for the coast or just some slushy accumulations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Overrunning Sunday is the best chance we have, if it ends up rain that would be disappointing 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 20 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Overrunning Sunday is the best chance we have, if it ends up rain that would be disappointing No The best chance is when the ull comes through and blows up offshore. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 7 minutes ago, Snow88 said: No The best chance is when the ull comes through and blows up offshore. No that will be focused to our North and East Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 9 minutes ago, qg_omega said: No that will be focused to our North and East So all the models are wrong ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 That 6Z euro was pretty snowy for a lot of the region on Monday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Just now, EasternLI said: That 6Z euro was pretty snowy for a lot of the region on Monday. Eps also ticked south The Nam should be interesting. You most likely need the mesocale models for this situation to see about CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 52 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Overrunning Sunday is the best chance we have, if it ends up rain that would be disappointing I don’t see there being any snow with that. The GFS is likely too warm showing all rain but I expect it’ll be primarily sleet. There could be some snow for about an hour early but that’s all. I won’t really be confident about Monday til we see the track of the ULL. The bottom line is any closed ULL that is positioned East or northeast of the area can produce heavy snow and you often won’t get details on it til inside 48 when the RGEM or NAM are inside range 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Eps also ticked south The Nam should be interesting. You most likely need the mesocale models for this situation to see about CAD. The EPS continues to trend stronger with the high to the north which would lead to south shifts with the low. And I fully expect that to continue. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: The EPS continues to trend stronger with the high to the north which would lead to south shifts with the low. And I fully expect that to continue. I keep thinking about this tweet from a few days ago. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Wagons north on NAM. Warm, less precip, even NE cuts back a lot. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 4 minutes ago, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said: Wagons north on NAM. Warm, less precip, even NE cuts back a lot. Check again and edit your post 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Nam is colder and has the low further south ( coastal low ) NYC gets hit pretty hard when the coastal takes over 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 The 2ndary low Is really key . The low is going to stall and spin for a while as seen on the Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Significantly south is now north apparently. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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