kingbaus Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 Just now, Snow88 said: I agree I dont know why people always downplay during a storm. HRRR agrees with you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 Hey, who was it that mentioned the faulty gaskets on Subaru's to me yesterday? I just bought a new head gasket JUST in case. You've got me worried now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 Reggie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 1 hour ago, RU848789 said: Snowfall intensity the last hour has been light to moderate, so only got 1/2" in the last hourd with 2" OTG as of 2:30 pm. Temp ia at 33F (been bouncing between 32 and 33F, just warm enough for some melting). The 18Z HRRR only has another 2" for most of CNJ/NNJ so I'm thinking most folks in warning areas aren't going to make it to the 5-8" range predicted for many of us if the model is correct. I'm at 2" now and 2 more would be 4", which I'd be happy with - of course the HRRR is nowhere near being correct all the time. Radar really looking ragged though vs. an hour or two ago. Let's hope this thing cranks back up. As of 3:30 pm, still have just 2" OTG, as it's been snowing fairly lightly the last hour and my guess is the snowfall rate was matched by the melting rate for an accumulation rate of zero. Anyone who thinks this storm looks healthy is delusional: a few hours ago, 2/3 of CNJ/NNJ was under 20 DBZ+ rates, while maybe 1/10th of that area is under that kind of rate. We may still get pivoting and more snow, but the last few hours have underperformed for most. On the bright side, at 3:30 pm, while the NWS-Philly dropped the warnings for most of eastern PA, they kept them for Mercer, Somerset, Hunterdon, Warren, Morris, Sussex, W. Monmouth and Middlesex for 2-4" of additional snow. They also kept advisories for the tier of counties south of those counties for 1-2" more snow, but dropped all advisories for Philly Metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 First time in a while (to my memory) that the NAM really busted within the 24-48 hr range. Bummer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 6 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Reggie? 5" for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 10 minutes ago, RU848789 said: As of 3:30 pm, still have just 2" OTG, as it's been snowing fairly lightly the last hour and my guess is the snowfall rate was matched by the melting rate for an accumulation rate of zero. Anyone who thinks this storm looks healthy is delusional: a few hours ago, 2/3 of CNJ/NNJ was under 20 DBZ+ rates, while maybe 1/10th of that area is under that kind of rate. We may still get pivoting and more snow, but the last few hours have underperformed for most. On the bright side, at 3:30 pm, the NWS-Philly dropped the warnings for most of eastern PA, but kept them for Mercer, Somerset, Hunterdon, warren, Morris Sussex and Middlesex for 2-4" of additional snow. Let's hope they're right. Pretty obvious its about done out here. Seen it dozens of times. I took a long walk in Merrill and it was really cool in one of those heavy bands. But I hope the whole season isn't the same level of uncertainty. As I said prior, my area usually struggles anyway. i expected 1-3 and I think it looks like about 3 to me out there. Tapering off now will be a blessing for everyone getting out of work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 Accumulating on colder surfaces now-moderate snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 7 inches northern Morris county nj 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 18 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Reggie? When you get a chance, take pics of the panicking public caught off guard with the thunder snow and traffic stopping rates of accumulation. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 Upton increased their totals for my area lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 Solid storm in highland lakes. expect to finish with around 10 to maybe 11 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 Just now, Rjay said: Upton increased their totals for my area lol Bizzare. They were overdone to begin with outside of Jersey and places with elevation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: Bizzare. They were overdone to begin with outside of Jersey and places with elevation. I mean the models performed poorly at best so far. But yea, I have no idea why they'd up totals now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 1 minute ago, Rjay said: I mean the models performed poorly at best so far. But yea, I have no idea why they'd up totals now. I mean there had to be a decent amount of LE in NYC it was just a few degrees too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: I mean the models performed poorly at best so far. But yea, I have no idea why they'd up totals now. Upton in their latest discussion thinks heavier bands will form later tonight for the area. That's why they raised the amounts. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 Rates really slowed down here in southern Westchester. Heavier bands are still possible. The only 100% definite so far with this storm is that JB's call of 'feet' of snow for the I-95 corridor will not pan out, unless he backtracks and then says that he meant the I-95 corridor in Maine. Other than that I think the NWS forecast is still in play, but if we do not see things start to fill in by 9-10PM then we are toast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 Nam , Rgem and Gfs continues to look good for later on. Maybe we just have to wait till later. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 Ok well I knew that the regular hrrr sucks, but I guess the new one does too. Good to know. But to be fair, it's a very difficult forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 NAM has SLP getting down to 966 east of Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 Radar is backfilling in LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 Upton upped my totals to 3-5"...They really need to hire onsite obs, or they're going to continue to put themselves behind the 8 ball on pulling advisories and warnings. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 Just now, Wetbulbs88 said: Upton upped my totals to 3-5"...They really need to hire onsite obs, or they're going to continue to put themselves behind the 8 ball on pulling advisories and warnings. Take a look at the radar south of LI. Bands are starting to pivot north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Take a look at the radar south of LI. Bands are starting to pivot north. Dry air seems to be a problem now too, ground truth isn’t matching the radar. It’s still possible we pull a miracle like with the third March storm in 2018, I had 14” at home from one tiny band 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 I don't think the forecast was that bad. I fully expected places north of me at higher elevations to get substantially more snow in this kind of storm. 1-3 was always a good call, and those calling for 3-6, well, a lot of us seem to have gotten to 3. So that's not exactly blown. I do think these new models overdo things; I'd be sitting at 100 inches a year if some of them panned out ( they don't, and thank God ). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Take a look at the radar south of LI. Bands are starting to pivot north. Those bands aren't coming to north Jersey Anthony. Perhaps LI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 1 minute ago, weatherpruf said: Those bands aren't coming to north Jersey Anthony. Perhaps LI? LI and the city Sorry you didnt get alot today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Dry air seems to be a problem now too, ground truth isn’t matching the radar. It’s still possible we pull a miracle like with the third March storm in 2018, I had 14” at home from one tiny band It's possible but the radar doesnt look that bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 7 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Take a look at the radar south of LI. Bands are starting to pivot north. Maybe your computer screen is upside down? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 1 hour ago, Ericjcrash said: Good luck. I thought 1-3 was a good call, at this point it would be a miracle 49 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: First time in a while (to my memory) that the NAM really busted within the 24-48 hr range. Bummer. This was not a normal storm in any shape or form, I never liked this setup. Unless you were in the perfect spot you were going to find this storm very frustrating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now