Ericjcrash Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 17 minutes ago, CarLover014 said: How is the 00z ICON coming along? Off the computer now and to my phone... where Tidbits doesn't work Went from nada to nada. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingbaus Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Starting to lose hope for this storm in the NYC metro area. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 1 minute ago, kingbaus said: Starting to lose hope for this storm in the NYC metro area. My role of thumb is I don’t hope for anything until late December. Whatever comes before that is extra. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 6 minutes ago, kingbaus said: Starting to lose hope for this storm in the NYC metro area. Are you looking at the models ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 2 minutes ago, David-LI said: My role of thumb is I don’t hope for anything until late December. Whatever comes before that is extra. We are getting some snow Monday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 11 minutes ago, kingbaus said: Starting to lose hope for this storm in the NYC metro area. Why? The Euro gave several inches of snow for KNYC at 12z and 18z. Several other models show accumulating snowfall especially north and west of NYC which is within the metropolitan area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 4 minutes ago, Nibor said: Why? The Euro gave several inches of snow for KNYC at 12z and 18z. Several other models show accumulating snowfall especially north and west of NYC which is within the metropolitan area. Yeah, but the evening wasnt kind. NW folks are ok. 0z GFS wasn't better but not really worse the rogue 18z band wasn't realistic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 NAM is still out of range GFS has been playing catchup the whole time and the 0Z run was basically the same as 18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 I will say h5 om the GFS is pretty sexy didn't reflect well though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Just now, Ericjcrash said: I will say h5 om the GFS is pretty sexy didn't reflect well though. Classic snowstorms have the h5 like that. I think more changes are ahead. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 The place for this should be from near Boston to the Catskills IMO. If models start ticking back north I think this is about done for NYC outside of a lucky 1-2” on the back end. There’s still an outside shot this can produce near the coast but we need the blocking high to be locked in and force the redevelopment to be earlier and south. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 CMC is north, front and backend snows for the city and lots of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Just now, HVSnowLover said: CMC is north, front and backend snows for the city and lots of rain Its only out to 48 on SV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 6 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: CMC is north, front and backend snows for the city and lots of rain Rain to a long period of light snow for NYC and hammer time for Inland areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 13 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Yeah, but the evening wasnt kind. NW folks are ok. 0z GFS wasn't better but not really worse the rogue 18z band wasn't realistic. I dunno, I feel like coastal folks should have been keeping their expectations tempered. Not to say there still isn't potential for the coast to see some snow. NW areas, obviously, do better this time of year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 3 minutes ago, Nibor said: I dunno, I feel like coastal folks should have been keeping their expectations tempered. Not to say there still isn't potential for the coast to see some snow. NW areas, obviously, do better this time of year. I think most would be happy just to see the first accumulating snow of the season near the coast, not expecting a big event. I think the 12Z Euro got people thinking it could be bigger for the coast, lets see what the 0Z Euro shows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said: I think most would be happy just to see the first accumulating snow of the season near the coast, not expecting a big event. I think the 12Z Euro got people thinking it could be bigger for the coast, lets see what the 0Z Euro shows. My hopes aren’t for anything more than a quick inch or maybe two on grass, and I live in a cold part of Long Island now. Anyone should know the 12z Euro might be a pipe dream-I could see how it happens but we need much more to go right than for people on I-90. Initially most models have a quick burst of snow even for the coast but the primary and deep southerly flow will keep that brief unless the upper low can really dig and force the redevelopment south which cuts off the warm air. The consensus is that happens in time for 50mi or so north of the city and pivots lots of moisture overhead-we possibly dryslot and stay warm down here until the back end which is maybe when we pick up a little more snow since these closed 500 lows often have precip on the west side of the surface low, and cold air comes back south. Something like the 4-1-97 type evolution which demolished Boston to Albany, Catskills and Poconos. We really need this all to happen a little further south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Cmc has 3-6 inches for the coast and alot more as you go north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: My hopes aren’t for anything more than a quick inch or maybe two on grass, and I live in a cold part of Long Island now. Anyone should know the 12z Euro might be a pipe dream-I could see how it happens but we need much more to go right than for people on I-90. Initially most models have a quick burst of snow even for the coast but the primary and deep southerly flow will keep that brief unless the upper low can really dig and force the redevelopment south which cuts off the warm air. The consensus is that happens in time for 50mi or so north of the city and pivots lots of moisture overhead-we possibly dryslot and stay warm down here until the back end which is maybe when we pick up a little more snow since these closed 500 lows often have precip on the west side of the surface low, and cold air comes back south. Something like the 4-1-97 type evolution which demolished Boston to Albany, Catskills and Poconos. We really need this all to happen a little further south. This is why we track. 2 more days =) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Just now, Snow88 said: Cmc has 3-6 inches for the coast and alot more as you go north. On a clown map. In reality it's almost a full day of mood flakes. Could be worse. Low completely stalls for 18+ hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 The uk transfers to the Delmarva a hour 72 993 MB low south of Montauk at hour 96 looks like a big hit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Just now, Ericjcrash said: On a clown map. In reality it's almost a full day of mood flakes. Could be worse. Low completely stalls for 18+ hours. If the snow behind the low is banded and comes down moderate, it should accumulate and it’s possible if it’s dynamic enough- it’ll be a closed off upper low. If it’s occasional snow showers or light I doubt it accumulates. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Just now, jm1220 said: If the snow behind the low is banded and comes down moderate, it should accumulate and it’s possible if it’s dynamic enough- it’ll be a closed off upper low. If it’s occasional snow showers or light I doubt it accumulates. Where the stall occurs will determine who gets the most snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 4 minutes ago, binbisso said: The uk transfers to the Delmarva a hour 72 993 MB low south of Montauk at hour 96 looks like a big hit Hmmm. Sounds pretty north and close to coast, but could bring banding if it's that NW. I haven't seen and no idea of thermals. We'll see. Transfer location sounds decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 12 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: On a clown map. In reality it's almost a full day of mood flakes. Could be worse. Low completely stalls for 18+ hours. The accumulating snow would actually be more so on the front end than the back end. It shows about 3 hours of heavy snow at the start of the storm for the Metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Just now, HVSnowLover said: The accumulating snow would actually be more so on the front end than the back end. It shows about 3 hours of heavy snow at the start of the storm for the Metro area. Yeah, washed away then a long long period of light snow. Can't argue it and given the date we take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingbaus Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 I heard the UKie is showing us the goods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 1 minute ago, kingbaus said: I heard the UKie is showing us the goods. Us or SNE? Yet to see a single image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 The ukie has Northern New Jersey all of the lower Hudson Valley and all of Connecticut below zero c850s through hours 72 looks like a good front end thump don't have thermals be on that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Us or SNE? Yet to see a single image. Crushes areas NW of NYC and it manages to crush Philly too 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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