jm1220 Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: Kuchera is pretty close for the NAM surface is cold. With the north wind that would come with part 2, the surface temps should drop to freezing or close, enough for it to accumulate right away or quickly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 Just now, jm1220 said: With the north wind that would come with part 2, the surface temps should drop to freezing or close, enough for it to accumulate right away or quickly. Yeah, NAM gets surface temps in the upper 20s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, jm1220 said: With the north wind that would come with part 2, the surface temps should drop to freezing or close, enough for it to accumulate right away or quickly. Especially when a lot of the precip is falling after dark and may not end until 3-4am on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 1 minute ago, NJsnow89 said: Hearing the latest Hrrr is terrible Why would anybody be looking at Hrrr now when main precip potentially falls tomorrow afternoon and night? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, NJsnow89 said: Hearing the latest Hrrr is terrible Meh. Convective feedback issues on HRRR. We toss. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 1 minute ago, JustinRP37 said: You just said 4-6 inches now you are saying clobbered. Either we have vastly different definitions of 'clobbered' or 4-6 over 18 hours is not 'clobbered'. That would be 0.333 inches per hour over 18 hours. Agreed, in the era of blockbuster storms clobbered would be something like the deform band in feb 06 which dumped something like 18” in the park alone. That’s not happening even in the perfect scenario tomorrow. i still like 2-8” for the park tomorrow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, NJsnow89 said: Hearing the latest Hrrr is terrible This is probably beyond the HRRR's good time range for part 2. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 1 minute ago, Enigma said: Meh. Convective feedback issues on HRRR. We toss. The HRRR beyond 8 hours is bad. It actually was awful today with the weather coming through here. The 3Km NAM really nailed today’s event overall 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 lol the HRRR shouldnt even be looked at till late tomorrow morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 13 minutes ago, snowman19 said: You aren’t going to have 10:1 ratios tomorrow, they are so inaccurate, it’s not even funny If you really believe the NAM surface temps and at night then it is definitely possible the ratios could 10:1. I'm of course skeptical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 1 minute ago, Snowlover11 said: lol the HRRR shouldnt even be looked at till late tomorrow morning. Agreed... the HRRR is your nowcastin tool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: The HRRR beyond 8 hours is bad. It actually was awful today with the weather coming through here. The 3Km NAM really nailed today’s event overall I've found the 3k to be quite useful since its inception, and think it's probably more realistic than the 12k in terms of what will happen tomorrow. Hope I'm wrong. That being said, looks like I might've been right about that megaband in NJ being overdone. No way a redeveloping low off the Cape was gonna bomb out like while transferring energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 Just now, Wetbulbs88 said: I've found the 3k to be quite useful since its inception, and think it's probably more realistic than the 12k in terms of what will happen tomorrow. Hope I'm wrong. That being said, looks like I might've been right about that megaband in NJ being overdone. No way a redeveloping low off the Cape was gonna bomb out like while transferring energy. Inside 24 its very good. Beyond that it typically isnt very consistent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 17 minutes ago, Enigma said: ? I didn't realize that tomorrow's event already occurred today!? I'll stand by my 1/2 inch forecast. Wait you are forecasting that for the whole event ? I thought it was only for today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 Just now, Wetbulbs88 said: I've found the 3k to be quite useful since its inception, and think it's probably more realistic than the 12k in terms of what will happen tomorrow. Hope I'm wrong. That being said, looks like I might've been right about that megaband in NJ being overdone. No way a redeveloping low off the Cape was gonna bomb out like while transferring energy. The idea that a wide swath was getting 10" of snow from that was likely overdone, yes. Maybe someone would but it seemed to be an area of more moderate snow that would be a 3-6" type deal. Hopefully tomorrow many of us get a few (more) inches, I wouldn't start hoping for more than that yet. One area it looks like I was wrong about was Boston-the city at least has been mostly rain and they're relying on part 2 for any more just like we are. They'll also be in the upper 30s or over 40 for quite a bit longer. East winds are torching them. Albany and the western half of MA have been the place to be for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 9 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The HRRR beyond 8 hours is bad. It actually was awful today with the weather coming through here. The 3Km NAM really nailed today’s event overall Sorry. Sarcasm button did not work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 Can't wait to see the IMBY hot takes when RGEM comes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 7 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: If you really believe the NAM surface temps and at night then it is definitely possible the ratios could 10:1. I'm of course skeptical. Here’s the more accurate depiction of what the 0Z NAM shows; 12 K: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019120200&fh=36 3K: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km®ion=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019120200&fh=36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Wait you are forecasting that for the whole event ? I thought it was only for today. I'd have to go back. I honestly would not go above 1-2 in for CPK tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 3 minutes ago, Enigma said: I'd have to go back. I honestly would not go above 1-2 in for CPK tomorrow. I would take that in a heart beat. Hopefully we get more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 7 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Here’s the more accurate depiction of what the 0Z NAM shows; 12 K: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019120200&fh=36 3K: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km®ion=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019120200&fh=36 Sure it is. According to 3k just south of albany is going to get 1 more inch by tuesday morning, lol. maybe 1 more foot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 8 minutes ago, Enigma said: I'd have to go back. I honestly would not go above 1-2 in for CPK tomorrow. Is that due to a lack of dynamics or borderline temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 Just now, HeadInTheClouds said: Sure it is. According to 3k just south of albany is going to get 1 more inch by tuesday morning, lol. maybe 1 more foot. Yea I wasn’t going to say anything the fact is I don’t post to his comments due to the fact that they are all invalid. 3-6 inches area wide tomorrow with more in isolated spots. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 1 minute ago, ILoveWinter said: Is that due to a lack of dynamics or borderline temps? I still think best dynamics are just west of NYC. SREFs have been persistent with best lift along Delaware River. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingbaus Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 Rgem comes out soon let's see if the nam is onto something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 I don't think NYC gets more than 1-3" but Upton should at least issue a WWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 1 minute ago, kingbaus said: Rgem comes out soon let's see if the nam is onto something. It shifted east 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 Just now, Ericjcrash said: I don't think NYC gets more than 1-3" but Upton should at least issue a WWA. That's a good call unless banding occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 Just now, Snow88 said: It shifted east That must be good news. By how many miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 19 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Inside 24 its very good. Beyond that it typically isnt very consistent For sure. Kinda sits between the HRRR and NAM in terms of usefulness. Its best use IMO is in how it tempers the NAM's overexcitement sometimes. When you see them both lockstep, then you know they're onto something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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