Possible Dec 1-3 Winter Storm

[Wetbulbs88]

3 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

GFS also wrecks Trenton.

I at once believe that result and also think the GFS is basically worthless at this point. Doesn't have the resolution to do anything more than verify that the high res models are on the right track. 

[NEG NAO]

[Wetbulbs88]

1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

Gfs has the band right over NYC and NJ. It shifted east.  Ignore the temps. Its always too warm.

This. GFS only good for overall pattern at this point. 

[NJsnow89]

3 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Gfs has the band right over NYC and NJ. It shifted east.  Ignore the temps. Its always too warm.

I am not seeing this. Gfs continues to be an outlier 

[purduewx80]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

That is an impressive convective snow band in the NAM. Very steep midlevel lapse rates and elevated TT’s. It will be interesting to see where it actually sets up.

Severe thunderstorms with the upper low in western PA near Pittsburgh right now. Quite a few small hail reports coming out of that low-topped squall line.

This is part of the feature we'll see rotating into NJ and offshore tomorrow morning.

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

The band is over eastern PA into western NJ. City gets a little wet snow.

The city also catches  the band ( part of it )

[Zelocita Weather]

New GFS still an outlier to some extent, but that being said it is moving to other models and still gets a lot of QPF all over NJ and the City, with it snowing until about 4/5am Tuesday

[the_other_guy]

So far this storm (part 1) has played out exactly as modeled give or take some variance.

That doesnt bode well for most of you on this forum going forward if:

a) you trust the models

b) you acknowledge models have been pretty good thus far

Accuweather hasnt budged from their 1-2 inch forecast for lower westchester for several days...not that that means much. 

 

[Yanksfan]

7 minutes ago, Zelocita Weather said:

New GFS still an outlier to some extent, but that being said it is moving to other models and still gets a lot of QPF all over NJ and the City, with it snowing until about 4/5am Tuesday

GFS is always late for the party.

[Wetbulbs88]

4 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

So far this storm (part 1) has played out exactly as modeled give or take some variance.

That doesnt bode well for most of you on this forum going forward if:

a) you trust the models

b) you acknowledge models have been pretty good thus far

Accuweather hasnt budged from their 1-2 inch forecast for lower westchester for several days...not that that means much. 

 

This makes absolutely no sense. The models are beginning to show good snows for much of the region. Considering that models are an inherently provisional tool, at what point do we lock in what's 'modeled'? 

[Wesshock]

It seems to me that there will be a band, that where it sets up people will cash in, and that NYC will at least be on the edge or pivot or that band as it snows out. So 3-6 seems a good call for NYC to me, with potentially more, especially since (to me) a lot of these model outputs are putting NYC in the convective bands but the thermals are iffy so it's showing up as rain, when in reality it's probably heavy rain transitioning to heavy snow. My two cents. And by potentially more I meant like 4-8, not like a foot.

[JustinRP37]

I would not want to be a pro-met for this. The NWS has a great discussion about the uncertainty. They are definitely hesitant on that deformation band and where it sets up. Usually, these bands tend to be over-modeled in my experience. I am cautious, but I am thinking and have always been thinking this is a more north storm that a metro NYC storm. You can also tell meteorologists must be sleep deprived and over this storm (see bolded word from the forecast discussion). Should be Monday??

The other challenging factor is the transition back to snow
across the area on Wednesday. Using a consensus approach, this
changeover occurs across the Lower Hudson Valley and interior NE
NJ during the late morning hours, then works east in the
afternoon and evening hours. A changeover to all snow is
expected across much of the area by midnight. Timing of this
transition in conjunction with the deformation zone will be key
to the amount of snowfall that falls across the region. There
will likely be significant differences in snowfall amounts over
short distances. Forecast amount changes are highly likely as
this event unfolds.

[SnowGoose69]

As expected Central Park reported a trace despite the fact at one point there was about a 1/2 inch on the ground similar to at the Giants game

[MJO812]

Hrdps has a nice band over NYC  and NJ tomorrow. It then forms other bands and pivoted throughout the whole area which results in several inches for NYC and LI.

CnJ gets close to a foot with the huge band

[Ericjcrash]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

As expected Central Park reported a trace despite the fact at one point there was about a 1/2 inch on the ground similar to at the Giants game

Shocker. 

[the_other_guy]

36 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

This makes absolutely no sense. The models are beginning to show good snows for much of the region. Considering that models are an inherently provisional tool, at what point do we lock in what's 'modeled'? 

You could never lock it in

There seems to be a storm that is going to possibly leave a couple of inches of snow on the ground as it pulls away

What we are hoping for is a repeat of last November

But the models of been pretty consistent about that warm tongue thru Central Long Island

They have also been pretty consistent about a heavy band of snow setting up somewhere in central New Jersey

 could all of that shift ? sure

Have there been any deviations from what was forecasted thus far? Not really

 With most snowstorms dont we usually have very good confidence in what we are getting within 24 hours? Yes

Could we throw all the caution in the wind and say there’s a possibility of warning snows in New York City?  I guess. But that seems more hype and wish casting at this point than run after run various models have shown

 

 

[MJO812]

Just now, Ericjcrash said:

Shocker. 

The snow was sticking in Manhattan. 

[NJsnow89]

@weatherpruf seems like latest models put our area under the death bands. Hopefully we can cash in. 

[Ericjcrash]

Just now, Snow88 said:

Hrdps has a nice band over NYC  and NJ tomorrow. It then forms other bands and pivoted throughout the whole area which results in several inches for NYC and LI.

South central Jersey gets obliterated. 

[MJO812]

Just now, Ericjcrash said:

South central Jersey gets obliterated. 

Just posted that. Over a foot.

[Ericjcrash]

Just now, Snow88 said:

The snow was sticking in Manhattan. 

I know it did. They cant measure there or LGA.

[SnoSki14]

Just now, Snow88 said:

Just posted that. Over a foot.

This deform band is no joke wherever it sets up. As of now it looks to be over NJ particularly just west of the city.

[White Gorilla]

Congrats NJ!  Great to see such a winter storm right at the start of Met winter.  Hoping this is a harbinger of a winter we all cash in with white gold. 

[MJO812]

Just now, Ericjcrash said:

I know it did. They cant measure there or LGA.

JFK also sucks

[MJO812]

Just now, White Gorilla said:

Congrats NJ!  Great to see such a winter storm right at the start of Met winter.  Hoping this is a harbinger of a winter we all cash in with white gold. 

Too early to give congrats 

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, NJsnow89 said:

@weatherpruf seems like latest models put our area under the death bands. Hopefully we can cash in. 

There has been an ever so slight nudge east it seems at 12 and 18Z today overall but probably still need a 30-50 mile shift.  That can more or less occur simply off average model error by this time tomorrow

[White Gorilla]

8 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Too early to give congrats 

True, but just speculating as if the models are correct.  We really don't know where the bands will be, but short term modeling is targeting NJ pretty consistently. 

[weatherpruf]

52 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

So far this storm (part 1) has played out exactly as modeled give or take some variance.

That doesnt bode well for most of you on this forum going forward if:

a) you trust the models

b) you acknowledge models have been pretty good thus far

Accuweather hasnt budged from their 1-2 inch forecast for lower westchester for several days...not that that means much. 

 

Well no one called for more than 1-3 here, and so I don't expect much. I get 3-4 when they call for 8-12....

[White Gorilla]

Noticing heavy connection exploding a few hundred miles east of the Carolina and Virginia coasts.  A lot of energy and instability to work with. 

[weatherpruf]

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

NJ has been getting an extremely generous amount of snowfall over the past 20 years.

Normal is like 20-30 for most of the state.

And not everyone in NE likes snow; many people in the Boston area are there for work and hope for a transfer. And some people think the amount of snow we get in NJ is excessive ( actually a lot of people ). They obviously don't live near me...