kingbaus Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 gfs showing a rain storm. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 10 minutes ago, kingbaus said: gfs showing a rain storm. Wrong 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Gfs ended up colder and has a 10 spot for NYC LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Gfs ended up colder and has a 10 spot for NYC LOL 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Wrong It is mostly rain but hits NYC at the end with the CCB band, I'm not seeing the 10 inches though? GFS will be awful with this storm anyway, it always underestimates the low level cold in CAD scenarios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Gfs ended up colder and has a 10 spot for NYC LOL Less confluence Over southeastern Canada, so the primary is able to move further north. Flips to snow as the coastal takes over. 1-2 inches for the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said: It is mostly rain but hits NYC at the end with the CCB band, I'm not seeing the 10 inches though? GFS will be awful with this storm anyway, it always underestimates the low level cold in CAD scenarios People are using the grossly inaccurate 10:1 ratio “snow” maps that count sleet as snow. They aren’t even close to reality, it happened all last winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: People are using the grossly inaccurate 10:1 ratio “snow” maps that count sleet as snow. They aren’t even close to reality, it happened all last winter I'm seeing about 1-2 inches for NYC on the GFS. Either way it's the GFS, it's not the model I would lean on. It's also playing catchup with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 10 minutes ago, snowman19 said: People are using the grossly inaccurate 10:1 ratio “snow” maps that count sleet as snow. They aren’t even close to reality, it happened all last winter Here you go again denouncing every storm. What are the reasons why you hate this storm? Nao and AO are favorable . 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 I would be shocked if there isn’t a north movement with this storm on the models between now and Saturday’s runs. These secondary coastal transfers always tend to do that as you get close 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Just now, snowman19 said: I would be shocked if there isn’t a north movement with this storm on the models between now and Saturday’s runs. These secondary coastal transfers always tend to do that as you get close What's your reason ? And they dont always trend north. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Funny how the GFS had snow for a while and not the euro, now they switched Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 6 minutes ago, David-LI said: Funny how the GFS had snow for a while and not the euro, now they switched Gfs still has snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 30 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I would be shocked if there isn’t a north movement with this storm on the models between now and Saturday’s runs. These secondary coastal transfers always tend to do that as you get close Always ? That’s not true. We all missed your posts the last year . Glad to have you back. 3 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 33 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Gfs still has snow Yeah but it's a worse setup on the 18z. That one band saves the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 4 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Yeah but it's a worse setup on the 18z. That one band saves the day. A closed 500 low should have some backlash precip, that should at least give most of us a period of snow. Those usually aren’t impressive but they can surprise. The key is the closed upper low that rotates moisture all the way around from the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 1 hour ago, HVSnowLover said: I'm seeing about 1-2 inches for NYC on the GFS. Either way it's the GFS, it's not the model I would lean on. It's also playing catchup with this storm. Guys gfs just had no snow 12 hours ago and it sucks no wonder it’s rated behind euro and ukmet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: I would be shocked if there isn’t a north movement with this storm on the models between now and Saturday’s runs. These secondary coastal transfers always tend to do that as you get close I wasn't sure the last couple of days but now I know it's coming. Thanks bud. 3 1 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 oh no the gfs doesn't look as good 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Gfs finally has a large solid area of heavy snow. In past runs, it looked like the jackpot was 30hrs or drizzle with some flakes mixed in. Even if it doesn't hit NYC, it's what you would expect from this type of storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 I think this will be mostly rain for NYC changing to snow . 1-3 inches for the city right now. That amount will go up if the models trend colder. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 9 minutes ago, Snow88 said: I think this will be mostly rain for NYC changing to snow . 1-3 inches for the city right now. That amount will go up if the models trend colder. Might be the most reasonable forecast you've ever had. I concur at this juncture. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 High is really pressing down on the NAM at 48. We'll see if it means anything. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 NAM's ugly. Primary way north and lingers there. Oh well. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Kinda looks like there would be some decent backend stuff but youd have to think the ceiling is pretty low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 4 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: NAM's ugly. Primary way north and lingers there. Oh well. Long range Nam Even so , all the models show rain to snow for the area. Nothing wrong with this run. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Just now, Ericjcrash said: Kinda looks like there would be some decent backend stuff but youd have to think the ceiling is pretty low. Yes ceiling is low on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Nam has the low way east. Looks like it doesnt know where to put the low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Nam has the low way east. Looks like it doesnt know where to put the low. The problem with the 0z NAM was what it did with the primary. Hung back and the precip shield stayed disheveled. Early on the confluence looked better but ended up irrelevant. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Just now, Ericjcrash said: The problem with the 0z NAM was what it did with the primary. Hung back and the precip shield stayed disheveled. Early on the confluence looked better but ended up irrelevant. Agree 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 How is the 00z ICON coming along? Off the computer now and to my phone... where Tidbits doesn't work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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