TJW014 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 We're already up to 45 F thanks to that east wind. That's what happens when the ocean temps are in the 50's here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 25 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Wow @ the Berkshire high country with 3'+ Looks like Berkshire East is going to have their season nicely set up. I'm not real happy that the heavier focus has tightened up on the west side of the river and it's like it stole the moisture from the east side as I'm down to ~5" on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 34 here in South Amboy on the Raritan bay. It feels like snow! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 18 minutes ago, Blizzardo said: its not a matter of relying on it, its understanding that someone will get it and there is subsidence on the outsides. its just a matter of not knowing exactly where it will set up shop until its game time and the short range models come into play. there is always happy campers...and heartache in every storm. Yes but after spending years following this stuff I've noticed patterns, where certain areas simply never get the banding (my area is one of those.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 5 minutes ago, Blizzardo said: 34 here in South Amboy on the Raritan bay. It feels like snow! All the seagulls in the air seem to indicate that a big storm is on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 17 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Sleet here in Brooklyn whats the temp there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, kingbaus said: Nam looking like trash. Nam hasn't been impressed with this storm at all. Little too warm but has it snowing pretty decently at hour 39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 3 hours ago, Snow88 said: Why give me weenie emojis ? It's the truth. I though Weenie emoji was a good thing my bad 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 12z NAM has 6" for the city 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Root for the stronger CCB on the 12z NAM to pivot through NYC. The details with that feature will make or break this forecast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 5 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: I though Weenie emoji was a good thing my bad It is =) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Just now, bluewave said: Root for the stronger CCB on the 12z NAM to pivot through NYC. Jeez so close to bigger totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poleshiftnow Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrdps®ion=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2019120106&fh=21 6z HRDPS is showing a nice hit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 that baby is still juiced! 8-10 all of northern jersey. looks great 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 6.4 for the city on 3km NAM. Love how there are 6"+ totals in Ocean County 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: Root for the stronger CCB on the 12z NAM to pivot through NYC. The details with that feature will make or break this forecast. it's usually the CCB that makes or breaks forecasts because that's how we get the majority of our snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Just now, CarLover014 said: 6.4 for the city on 3km NAM. Love how there are 6"+ totals in Ocean County I've been saying that I like the NAM over other models for storms like these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 I have a few things first off its 27 degrees here right now in New City. I got up at 5 30 am took my kid to Newark Airport ( it was 30 degrees there but I stray ) airport traffic was a night mare at 6 am ( not the highway the airport itself ) I guess everyone is getting out of Dodge but again I stray, I literally park the car and I get a notification on my phone = Flight cancelled. In other news my buddies daughter left / driving from Washington Ville at 5 am ( yes I know very bad / poor choice ) heading to Buffalo and she got 3 hours away from home and is currently pulled over on the side of the road as their are accidents everywhere the road is a sheet of Ice. Now back to the storm talk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 12 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: I though Weenie emoji was a good thing my bad it is if you like hot dogs! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 That feature almost looks like a hybrid IVT and CCB in the soundings. Notice how steep the midlevel lapse rates are with the elevated TT’s. Could be some intense snowfall rates where that sets up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: That feature almost looks like a hybrid IVT and CCB in the soundings. Notice how steep the midlevel lapse rates are with the elevated TT’s. Could be some intense snowfall rates where that sets up. Could you do a sounding for KSWF ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Based on memory of past storms, anticipate some sort of correction on the position of the CCB, all depends on whether it’s East or West! Anyone know what is likelier for this storm? I recall the infamous Jan 2015 storm where the actual track was around 30 or so miles East and left NYC with scraps tho LI with monster totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 25 minutes ago, bluewave said: Root for the stronger CCB on the 12z NAM to pivot through NYC. The details with that feature will make or break this forecast. Problem is these things almost always end up slightly more NW than models indicate, rarely southeast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: Problem is these things almost always end up slightly more NW than models indicate, rarely southeast. This isnt your typical storm where the low goes northeast. It pulls back south and then east and then heads northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Not a big fan of the fact that the start time keeps getting pushed back. It’s more likely now that precip starts as a mix now rather than as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Just remember that historically speaking models under perform with CAD or low level cold air. Could get quite icy in interior sections tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 1, 2019 Author Share Posted December 1, 2019 Seems like we finally have a pretty good idea of the storm, NYC west should do well, didn’t realize NAM has it snowing from about 9am tomorrow to 2am Tuesday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Not a big fan of the fact that the start time keeps getting pushed back. It’s more likely now that precip starts as a mix now rather than as snow.That also means we will have more snow on the back end quicker. Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Looks like the precip is coming in faster than modeled for today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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