Possible Dec 1-3 Winter Storm

[LibertyBell]

Just now, North and West said:

Thank you. Definitely seems like one of those “you won’t know until you know” sort of events.


.

Using December 2005 as one of my analogs for this storm, city, northwest, northeast, etc., did well while as soon as you got east of Queens there was nada lol.

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes!  I love that area..... Franklin Avenue goes all the way down to the Five Towns area around Hewlett :-)

I'm sure you know the snowfall climatology here, but just to fill you in, we usually only jackpot in big el nino events where storms are originally progged to stay just to our south and they make it up here "at the last moment."  Examples are February 1983, February 2003 (PD2) and January 2016, all of which were 20"+ events here and the last one was 30"+!

January 1996 was also 20"+ but that pretty much buried everyone, and so was the one exception to that rule!  Those four are the full list of 20"+ snowfalls for our area since I've been living here.

Higher elevated parts of the city will definitely do well.  Do you remember December 2005?  Central Park (132 ft above sea level) got 6", we got nothing.

 

 

 

Yeah I figure about the same seasonal snowfall as wantagh. 
I wouldn’t use December 2005, this is so completely different.

temps and dews are lower then originally forecast up here. My campus is elevated on morningside heights right next to the Hudson. Expecting double here then home. Looks like we will get at least some accumulation this morning with the ground now cold

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Yeah I figure about the same seasonal snowfall as wantagh. 
I wouldn’t use December 2005, this is so completely different.

temps and dews are lower then originally forecast up here. My campus is elevated on morningside heights right next to the Hudson. Expecting double here then home. Looks like we will get at least some accumulation this morning with the ground now cold

Just for the totals though, I think upper Manhattan did really well back during that storm too.  Wasn't that another coastal storm that really got going further north which is why the city got 6" and JFK and points east got nothing though?  New England did amazing with that storm also.

I could see your part of Manhattan getting to 6" this time around too.

Or is this more like the two day December 2003 storm except a less favorable track for us?

 

 

[Maureen]

12 hours ago, Rjay said:

Tell Pam/Ray Jay that I appreciate the curse.  

So sorry!!! It’s the season of miracles so I hope you can forgive me!

[NycStormChaser]

Latest from Upton 

[LibertyBell]

13 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

This is really a bad storm for the GFS weaknesses.  Cold air is marginal and its a fairly complicated evolution.  Its no surprise the UKmet/Euro look different 

sounds like the NAM would do well with this.

[LibertyBell]

13 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

NYC is pretty big: SI will not have the same snows as the Bronx a lot of time. QUeens often gets more if the storm is more east. So "NYC does fine" in what way?

Yeah thats why I was bringing up December 2005- 6" in NYC 3" at LGA 0" at JFK and points east lol.

When he says NYC I assume he means Central Park, a lot of people go by Central Park numbers as their totals even when they live in some other part of the city.  I know I did when I lived in southern Brooklyn.  I didn't even know the airports measured snowfall back then because the media used to only report Central Park numbers, so I assumed that applied to everyone throughout the five boroughs.

 

[LibertyBell]

12 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

I wouldn't say "usually".  It depends on the time of year.  Very early in the season actually favors the city.  Most of the cold season favors the north shore in marginal set-ups.  But its situational.  Some storms are going to shaft us.  March 1914 and February 2010 come to mind as noteworthy exceptions to the late in the season pattern.  Everyone here remembers the March storm, right? 

Thats right, I assume you remember December 2005 too, Ed ;-)

Later in the season the north shore and eastern LI usually do better than the city in marginal set ups, because the mean storm track shifts further east (also the waters are colder.)

 

 

[MJO812]

Banding is back over NYC on the 6z euro

[MJO812]

Euro has several inches now on the 6z run for NYC  with more to the west.

[NJsnow89]

Just now, Snow88 said:

Euro has several inches now on the 6z run for NYC  with more to the west.

Snow maps?

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, NJsnow89 said:

Snow maps?

SNE Thread

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is the 0z snowfall map for the 2nd part of the storm. Whatever falls today on the front end near NYC will get quickly washed away by the rains later. So this map is what could be on the ground by Tuesday morning. Root for the IVT to verify and boost these totals. But relying on an IVT often doesn’t work out. You need to be in a lucky spot.

 

6z euro has 3-6 for NYC with more to the west. EPS coming out soon. 

[EasternLI]

That looks a lot more like an actual CCB getting going on this 6Z EURO. Less of an IVT look there. 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is the 0z snowfall map for the 2nd part of the storm. Whatever falls today on the front end near NYC will get quickly washed away by the rains later. So this map is what could be on the ground by Tuesday morning. Root for the IVT to verify and boost these totals. But relying on an IVT often doesn’t work out. You need to be in a lucky spot.

 

6z euro has a wide expansive ccb rather than a skinny inverted trough.  That would put alot more people in play.

[LibertyBell]

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is the 0z snowfall map for the 2nd part of the storm. Whatever falls today on the front end near NYC will get quickly washed away by the rains later. So this map is what could be on the ground by Tuesday morning. Root for the IVT to verify and boost these totals. But relying on an IVT often doesn’t work out. You need to be in a lucky spot.

 

I hate it when that warm tongue comes up through the middle of Long Island, with higher totals both to the west and east lol.  Why do you suppose a place like Shirley gets more snow than Hempstead?  You'd think that it should be more straightforward in this kind of pattern, the further west you go, the more snow you get.

So according to this, the 5" that JFK is progged to get on the 6z Euro, like 4" of that will be on the front end?  How is that possible when it's supposed to snow all afternoon Monday and all night Monday night and into Tuesday morning, Chris?

 

 

[ForestHillWx]

1 hour ago, North and West said:

Any Indication on how this will turn out for MMU? Seems like a lot of city talk here.


.

Point and click has 6-8"; winter storm warning between 5-11". Odd storm for sure. 

The models all seem to have a good push of snow from NY/NJ border, i.e. West Milford, toward your area; less so my area further south west. 

Good luck!

 

 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I hate it when that warm tongue comes up through the middle of Long Island, with higher totals both to the west and east lol.  Why do you suppose a place like Shirley gets more snow than Hempstead?  You'd think that it should be more straightforward in this kind of pattern, the further west you go, the more snow you get.

So according to this, the 5" that JFK is progged to get on the 6z Euro, like 4" of that will be on the front end?  How is that possible when it's supposed to snow all afternoon Monday and all night Monday night and into Tuesday morning, Chris?

 

 

I edited the post to ask why Shirley would get more snow than Hempstead, even though Hempstead is to the NW of Shirley, and NW is where the higher totals should be.

And looking at the Euro totals, does this mean it's predicting 4" of snow on the front end and only 1" on the back end?  I thought the back end would be much better since it would last for like 12-18 hours.....

 

 

[MJO812]

Eps also has a wider coverage of the ccb band. That's what everyone should be hoping for.

[NorthShoreWx]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

I edited the post to ask why Shirley would get more snow than Hempstead, even though Hempstead is to the NW of Shirley, and NW is where the higher totals should be.

 

Shirley is farther north than Hempstead. The difference isn't great but neither are the snowfall differences across one line on that map.

As for the "warm tongue" I usually attribute that to differences in how the models resolve land vs water.  Even the high res models aren't perfect.

[MJO812]

Anyone check out the 6z rgem  snowfall map ? There is a huge band just to the west of NYC that lays down close to a foot of snow. It shows a foot  of snow in Staten Island and 3-6 for NYC  with less as you go east.

 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, Snow88 said:

Anyone check out the 6z rgem  snowfall map ? There is a huge band just to the west of NYC that lays down close to a foot of snow. It shows a foot  of snow in Staten Island and 3-6 for NYC  with less as you go east.

 

mini Feb 2006 lmao

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Shirley is farther north than Hempstead. The difference isn't great but neither are the snowfall differences across one line on that map.

As for the "warm tongue" I usually attribute that to differences in how the models resolve land vs water.  Even the high res models aren't perfect.

Thanks Ed, thats why I was hoping to see the NAM's output.  It does better in these scenarios.

 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

mini Feb 2006 lmao

Those bands were insane during the morning.

[North and West]

Point and click has 6-8"; winter storm warning between 5-11". Odd storm for sure. 
The models all seem to have a good push of snow from NY/NJ border, i.e. West Milford, toward your area; less so my area further south west. 
Good luck!
 
 

Thanks! My kids have had on TWC (it’s now back on FiOS) all morning; I’ve tried to temper their expectations within reason, because, well... bt, dt.


.

[NEG NAO]

31 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

mini Feb 2006 lmao

[LibertyBell]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

Thats why relying on convective banding is a bad idea.  We got half the snow NYC got in Feb 2006.

[Blizzardo]

8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Thats why relying on convective banding is a bad idea.  We got half the snow NYC got in Feb 2006.

its not a matter of relying on it, its understanding that someone will get it and there is subsidence on the outsides. its just a matter of not knowing exactly where it will set up shop until its game time and the short range models come into play. there is always happy campers...and heartache in every storm.

[Blizzardo]

and I'll take that RGEM map any day of the week!! lol

[MJO812]

Sleet here in Brooklyn