Possible Dec 1-3 Winter Storm

[weatherpruf]

52 minutes ago, NJsnow89 said:

New Brunswick Nj area- 25 miles west of Staten Island 

That's a little further than just west...just west would be Linden, Rahway, Elizabeth, Newark....New brunswick is northern CNJ. They often get very different snow totals from me just west of SI. But I generally live in a snow hole, and if it can find a way not to snow much here, it will.

[weatherpruf]

2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

We’re prepared for the table strips especially because the initial soaking rain cleanses our palates and sharp incisors. 

I'm seeing a side of literate bitterness we've not seen before from you.....did you minor in American Lit? Think Twain....ya know, cauliflower is just cabbage with a college degree, thunder is impressive but its lightning that does the damage...

[elektricshock]

Long time lurker, first (I think!) time poster...

 

Can anyone help me out with a timeline of what to expect tomorrow for EWR?  I have a 6:30p flight (and need to be in Cali by Tuesday at the latest). Should I expect it to be cancelled and preemptively try to get on a late Monday flight?  All the earlier ones tomorrow are booked...  thank you so much in advance!  (And for all of the invaluable information over the years)

[USCG RS]

31 minutes ago, elektricshock said:

Long time lurker, first (I think!) time poster...

 

Can anyone help me out with a timeline of what to expect tomorrow for EWR?  I have a 6:30p flight (and need to be in Cali by Tuesday at the latest). Should I expect it to be cancelled and preemptively try to get on a late Monday flight?  All the earlier ones tomorrow are booked...  thank you so much in advance!  (And for all of the invaluable information over the years)

I would stick with the Sunday flight over the Monday night. If things are going to become bad in the Tri-state area, it will likely be Monday evening vs. Sunday. The first part of this storm is those in the Northern Interior. The second part (Monday evening) is for our area. 

[jm1220]

I-90 jackpot on the Euro tonight and not much from any CCB. Essentially 1-3" from the city east, between the front/end. Ouch. Fills in CT as well to kick us even worse.

[Rjay]

31 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I-90 jackpot on the Euro tonight and not much from any CCB. Essentially 1-3" from the city east, between the front/end. Ouch. Fills in CT as well to kick us even worse.

Also the snow pivots into south Jersey and gives them a few inches lol.   

[RedSky]

0z ECM continues the 2019 eastern Monmouth County snow nightmare winter, and keeps south Jersey winning lol

 

[Brasiluvsnow]

15 minutes ago, RedSky said:

0z ECM continues the 2019 eastern Monmouth County snow nightmare winter, and keeps south Jersey winning lol

 

I just saw this myself lets see if the MODELS HAVE ANY CHANGES TOMORROW OR IF THIS ACTUALLY is the out come

[kingbaus]

nam looks totally different already with the first wave

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

I-90 jackpot on the Euro tonight and not much from any CCB. Essentially 1-3" from the city east, between the front/end. Ouch. Fills in CT as well to kick us even worse.

That's pretty much what I thought and goes along with most predictions.  1-3" is pretty good for us for the back end of storms.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Rjay said:

Also the snow pivots into south Jersey and gives them a few inches lol.   

I've always wondered how South Jersey does better with the back end of storms than we do lol.  Even in April storms like the Fools Day storm.

 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Jamaica Bay Jackpot? Flukes for the win? Broad Channel Bonanza?

Thanks for your insight Don, still thinking 3-6" for NYC?

Hey thats not too far from me!  I want to see that Bay Effect snow I've heard so much about! ;-)

Now I'm wondering if there is such a thing as Jamaica Bay Effect Snow lol.

 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Somewhat similar

What storm is that?  Two events that I wanted to compare this to is December 2005 (which went badly for us on Long Island) and last year's November 15th storm.

If this had taken a better track it could have been like the famous two day early December storm of 2003 :-(

 

 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, USCG RS said:

Where it sets up, either side directly outside will be rather unhappy. It is like feeder bands for tropical systems, the subsidence on either side produces drying. 

Relying on a random band to get you up to your predicted snowfall totals is probably not such a good idea.....

oh, what you said reminded me of February 2006, one of the winters this is being compared to, where the city got buried by a megaband and those of us just east of that band got half the snow lol.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

I-90 jackpot on the Euro tonight and not much from any CCB. Essentially 1-3" from the city east, between the front/end. Ouch. Fills in CT as well to kick us even worse.

This is the kind of event where the NAM should excel, it's been on a hot streak anyway since 2016.

 

[Ericjcrash]

Well it was fun to track... the miracle band is gone. Welcome to winter ladies and gentlemen. 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Well it was fun to track... the miracle band is gone. Welcome to winter ladies and gentlemen. 

That was pretty much as expected, there's a reason why local mets dont buy into random bands like that.  It's like trying to predict where a norlun will set up (which are also more common in southern NJ for some reason.)

Consider ourselves lucky if we get 1-3" with more emphasis on the 1" part of that range.

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

19 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

That was pretty much as expected, there's a reason why local mets dont buy into random bands like that.  It's like trying to predict where a norlun will set up (which are also more common in southern NJ for some reason.)

Consider ourselves lucky if we get 1-3" with more emphasis on the 1" part of that range.

 

It’s still entirely possible and why I’m sticking to 2-8” for the city for now. I really think someone in the metro area sees a surprise Monday evening. The where exactly is impossible to predict .

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

It’s still entirely possible and why I’m sticking to 2-8” for the city for now. I really think someone in the metro area sees a surprise Monday evening. The where exactly is impossible to predict .

2-8" is a huge range lol.  I can buy a surprise for someone but really doubt that would happen here on the south shore where we live lol.  I could see 4"+ in the higher elevated parts of the north shore of LI and northern Manhattan and the Bronx though.  RIP Nate, this is the kind of event where Mt Zucker could get a nice surprise.  I hope he does and gets to enjoy it wherever he is.

Where we live is a "cold spot" (meaning lower totals in a paradoxical sense) even when it's well below freezing- I think it has to do with being near sea level and the stabilizing effect of the ocean.

 

 

[NycStormChaser]

I don't see any reason except for getting dry slotted why NYC won't see a solid 2 to 4 inches of snow. Watch out where ever that heavy band of snow setups as well. That area will do the best. Almost all models have it happenening but we never know the location until it's now casting time. Enjoy the first snowstorm of the season everyone. I'll be heading north to gather some photos and videos today and back to do the same in the city tomorrow.

 

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[MJO812]

59 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Well it was fun to track... the miracle band is gone. Welcome to winter ladies and gentlemen. 

LOL

You realize  that  these bands are hard for the models to pinpoint  , right ? These usually end up in different places than where the models show.

[MJO812]

35 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

It’s still entirely possible and why I’m sticking to 2-8” for the city for now. I really think someone in the metro area sees a surprise Monday evening. The where exactly is impossible to predict .

The banding on the euro is just to the west. It's really close. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

40 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

2-8" is a huge range lol.  I can buy a surprise for someone but really doubt that would happen here on the south shore where we live lol.  I could see 4"+ in the higher elevated parts of the north shore of LI and northern Manhattan and the Bronx though.  RIP Nate, this is the kind of event where Mt Zucker could get a nice surprise.  I hope he does and gets to enjoy it wherever he is.

Where we live is a "cold spot" (meaning lower totals in a paradoxical sense) even when it's well below freezing- I think it has to do with being near sea level and the stabilizing effect of the ocean.

 

 

Exactly, the south shore is going to struggle like usual. I’m looking forward to doing well at work on 120th and Broadway. I can usually expect to see a couple extra inches compared to the rest of the city in marginal events owing to fact that I’m about as far Nw as you can get. That’s were I am for 99% of NYC snow events. And by the way I moved from wantagh to Lynbrook on franklin Ave very close to Malvenre so we are neighbors now!

[MJO812]

Why give me weenie emojis ? It's the truth.

[MJO812]

Rgem  shows the same ccb band just to the west of NYC that the euro shows but it eventually comes east.  Hopefully the models have it too far west.

[SRRTA22]

FWIW its 28f now at EWR , ~2 degrees lower then the forecasted low

 

[North and West]

Any Indication on how this will turn out for MMU? Seems like a lot of city talk here.


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[NycStormChaser]

Any Indication on how this will turn out for MMU? Seems like a lot of city talk here.


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I think it's been mostly city talk because it's such a marginal location for this storm. Anyone north and west of the city will do great. 25 or 30 miles in either direction you'll really see an uptick in these numbers

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[LibertyBell]

37 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Exactly, the south shore is going to struggle like usual. I’m looking forward to doing well at work on 120th and Broadway. I can usually expect to see a couple extra inches compared to the rest of the city in marginal events owing to fact that I’m about as far Nw as you can get. That’s were I am for 99% of NYC snow events. And by the way I moved from wantagh to Lynbrook on franklin Ave very close to Malvenre so we are neighbors now!

Yes!  I love that area..... Franklin Avenue goes all the way down to the Five Towns area around Hewlett :-)

I'm sure you know the snowfall climatology here, but just to fill you in, we usually only jackpot in big el nino events where storms are originally progged to stay just to our south and they make it up here "at the last moment."  Examples are February 1983, February 2003 (PD2) and January 2016, all of which were 20"+ events here and the last one was 30"+!

January 1996 was also 20"+ but that pretty much buried everyone, and so was the one exception to that rule!  Those four are the full list of 20"+ snowfalls for our area since I've been living here.

Higher elevated parts of the city will definitely do well.  Do you remember December 2005?  Central Park (132 ft above sea level) got 6", we got nothing.  We ended up with around 25" of snow that season while NYC touched 40"  I think that last event in April was the only one in which we jackpotted, as we got half of NYC's total in the big February event.

 

 

 

 

[North and West]

I think it's been mostly city talk because it's such a marginal location for this storm. Anyone north and west of the city will do great. 25 or 30 miles in either direction you'll really see an uptick in these numbers

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Thank you. Definitely seems like one of those “you won’t know until you know” sort of events.


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