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Possible Dec 1-3 Winter Storm


Zelocita Weather
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5 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

Has the NAM historically had hiccup runs like this with complex systems inside 48?  We know that the crazy uncle often goes wild with too much qpf, but the other direction? 

We have had a few instances where the high to the north was underestimated and position slightly off. We got suppression especially north of the city. The dry cold air was pushed from the north right down the Hudson valley instead of the northeast. Not sure if this will be one of those instances that the NAM is catching on to. I didn't look at this run. 

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Just now, lee59 said:

Storm moving in from the west and developing off New Jersey coast, especially this time of year with mild water temps, not a good scenario for NYC metro and Long Island.

The redeveloping low has been trending toward hanging right off Fire Island and not clearing East until the dynamics weaken. Maybe that changes but it has to for whatever CCB to work out for East of the city. 

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