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Possible Dec 1-3 Winter Storm


Zelocita Weather
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Just now, NYCweatherNOW said:

All the good modes have 6+ for Central Park I would issue a winter storm warning if I were working for them!

The 6+ is based on a fairly narrow band developing and pivoting overhead. That can easily fall apart or be over another location, and NYC gets half that or less. The zone that should be the best overall for this hasn’t changed in 3 days: I-90 in MA, and much of upstate NY. 

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Just now, Ericjcrash said:

UK and GFS have pretty much  nothing. Not saying the GFS is great but UK is.

I would go with euro, nam and rgem at this range. Plus cmc got us good too. Gfs is a horrible model a little worried about ukmet but it shows 2-4 there and the low placement went east so that’s a good sign

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Just now, HVSnowLover said:

People are taking 10:1 ratio maps too literally, there is potential Monday but calling for a 12+ is extreme. There is a reason Upton right now is calling for advisory level snow for the city and I agree. I'd be happy with advisory level snow for early December.

2-4/3-6" seems like a legit call atm. Could easily be not much or more. Can't bank on that band yet.

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11 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

UK and GFS have pretty much  nothing. Not saying the GFS is great but UK is.

I am going with a blend of the Euro/UK for now.  GFS I always toss til inside 24-30 on these events.  NAM cannot be trusted til it shows the same scenario 2-3 consecutive runs.  When the NAM consistently shows something big its usually right.  Any jumping back and forth and you can typically toss it

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Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

I am going with a blend of the Euro/UK for now.  GFS I always toss til inside 24-30 on these events.  NAM cannot be trusted til it shows the same scenario 2-3 consecutive runs.  When the NAM consistently shows something big its usually right.  Any jumping back and forth and you can typically toss it

What about the RGEM? It has been consistently showing an extreme solution unless it changed last run. Too extreme to trust? 

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Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
349 PM EST Sat Nov 30 2019

NYZ018-044-056-062-PAZ039-040-044-048-072-011100-
/O.UPG.KBGM.WS.A.0010.191201T1200Z-191203T0000Z/
/O.EXB.KBGM.WS.W.0011.191201T1200Z-191203T0000Z/
Onondaga-Cortland-Broome-Sullivan-Susquehanna-Northern Wayne-
Lackawanna-Pike-Southern Wayne-
Including the cities of Syracuse, Cortland, Binghamton,
Monticello, Hallstead, Montrose, Damascus, Equinunk, Scranton,
Milford, and Honesdale
349 PM EST Sat Nov 30 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and mixed precipitation expected. Total snow
  accumulations of 9 to 15 inches and ice accumulations of around
  one tenth of an inch.

* WHERE...In Pennsylvania, Susquehanna, Northern Wayne,
  Lackawanna, Pike and Southern Wayne counties. In New York,
  Onondaga, Cortland, Broome and Sullivan counties.

* WHEN...A mixture of snow, sleet and freezing rain will
  overspread the area Sunday morning, and continue through the
  daytime hours. The wintry mix then changes to all snow after
  midnight Sunday night, and could be heavy at times through the
  day Monday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning and evening
  commutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The heaviest period of snow is expected to
  occur later Sunday night into Monday. Snowfall rates up to 2
  inches per hour are expected at times. Temperatures hover in the
  mid 20s to lower 30s through the event.
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30 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I am going with a blend of the Euro/UK for now.  GFS I always toss til inside 24-30 on these events.  NAM cannot be trusted til it shows the same scenario 2-3 consecutive runs.  When the NAM consistently shows something big its usually right.  Any jumping back and forth and you can typically toss it

Are you going with the Ukmet idea of the deformation band down almost to the north Philly suburbs?

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1 minute ago, NepaJames8602 said:

Winter Storm Warning


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
349 PM EST Sat Nov 30 2019

NYZ018-044-056-062-PAZ039-040-044-048-072-011100-
/O.UPG.KBGM.WS.A.0010.191201T1200Z-191203T0000Z/
/O.EXB.KBGM.WS.W.0011.191201T1200Z-191203T0000Z/
Onondaga-Cortland-Broome-Sullivan-Susquehanna-Northern Wayne-
Lackawanna-Pike-Southern Wayne-
Including the cities of Syracuse, Cortland, Binghamton,
Monticello, Hallstead, Montrose, Damascus, Equinunk, Scranton,
Milford, and Honesdale
349 PM EST Sat Nov 30 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and mixed precipitation expected. Total snow
  accumulations of 9 to 15 inches and ice accumulations of around
  one tenth of an inch.

* WHERE...In Pennsylvania, Susquehanna, Northern Wayne,
  Lackawanna, Pike and Southern Wayne counties. In New York,
  Onondaga, Cortland, Broome and Sullivan counties.

* WHEN...A mixture of snow, sleet and freezing rain will
  overspread the area Sunday morning, and continue through the
  daytime hours. The wintry mix then changes to all snow after
  midnight Sunday night, and could be heavy at times through the
  day Monday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning and evening
  commutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The heaviest period of snow is expected to
  occur later Sunday night into Monday. Snowfall rates up to 2
  inches per hour are expected at times. Temperatures hover in the
  mid 20s to lower 30s through the event.

Too bad this wasnt a weekend event. Would've been at my house ~2000' in Delaware county between Roscoe and Delhi.

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