MJO812 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, Stormlover74 said: Upton issuing watches soon? Advisories for NYC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 18 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Don't often see the city pouring snow while LI is raining but can happen You see that all the time actually New York City gets more snow than they do! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Usually models show an inverted trough just to trend towards a bigger shield as we get closer. Definitely not always but in this case the precip shield seems to be expanding which is a good sign 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 All the good models have 6+ for Central Park I would issue a winter storm warning if I were working for them! edit: I’ll bet that Central Park will be a winter storm watch by tomorrow morning 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, Snow88 said: Advisories for NYC Probably. Safe thing to do is very lightly weigh NAM, RGEM, and even the Euro to a degree. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 12 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: That’s still snowing though! Heavy hit CT coast and LI shafted, everyone else does well. Actually thats only through 60, areas further east get some snow after hour 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, NYCweatherNOW said: All the good modes have 6+ for Central Park I would issue a winter storm warning if I were working for them! UK and GFS have pretty much nothing. Not saying the GFS is great but UK is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, Ericjcrash said: Probably. Safe thing to do is very lightly weigh NAM, RGEM, and even the Euro to a degree. They will issue them during the storm lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, NYCweatherNOW said: All the good modes have 6+ for Central Park I would issue a winter storm warning if I were working for them! The 6+ is based on a fairly narrow band developing and pivoting overhead. That can easily fall apart or be over another location, and NYC gets half that or less. The zone that should be the best overall for this hasn’t changed in 3 days: I-90 in MA, and much of upstate NY. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, Ericjcrash said: UK and GFS have pretty much nothing. Not saying the GFS is great but UK is. I would go with euro, nam and rgem at this range. Plus cmc got us good too. Gfs is a horrible model a little worried about ukmet but it shows 2-4 there and the low placement went east so that’s a good sign 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sanman 06 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 What would be start time for this main event? I work for DSNY and they already are splitting shifts. 12 hour work days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 1 minute ago, NYCweatherNOW said: I would go with euro, nam and rgem at this range. Plus cmc got us good too. Gfs is a horrible model a little worried about ukmet but it shows 2-4 there and the low placement went east so that’s a good sign Not with such a narrow band. Way too risky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, Sanman 06 said: What would be start time for this main event? I work for DSNY and they already are splitting shifts. 12 hour work days 9am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, Sanman 06 said: What would be start time for this main event? I work for DSNY and they already are splitting shifts. 12 hour work days What garage? And mid day Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 People are taking 10:1 ratio maps too literally, there is potential Monday but I wouldn't take those clown maps verbatim. There is a reason Upton right now is calling for advisory level snow for the city and I agree. I'd be happy with advisory level snow for early December. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, HVSnowLover said: People are taking 10:1 ratio maps too literally, there is potential Monday but calling for a 12+ is extreme. There is a reason Upton right now is calling for advisory level snow for the city and I agree. I'd be happy with advisory level snow for early December. 2-4/3-6" seems like a legit call atm. Could easily be not much or more. Can't bank on that band yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sanman 06 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: What garage? And mid day Monday STaten island 2 garage the one by the mall you work for Dsny? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 11 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: UK and GFS have pretty much nothing. Not saying the GFS is great but UK is. I am going with a blend of the Euro/UK for now. GFS I always toss til inside 24-30 on these events. NAM cannot be trusted til it shows the same scenario 2-3 consecutive runs. When the NAM consistently shows something big its usually right. Any jumping back and forth and you can typically toss it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 1 minute ago, Sanman 06 said: STaten island 2 garage the one by the mall you work for Dsny? Oh you're out there. Nope, family and a bunch of friends are either retired from or in Q5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: I am going with a blend of the Euro/UK for now. GFS I always toss til inside 24-30 on these events. NAM cannot be trusted til it shows the same scenario 2-3 consecutive runs. When the NAM consistently shows something big its usually right. Any jumping back and forth and you can typically toss it What about the RGEM? It has been consistently showing an extreme solution unless it changed last run. Too extreme to trust? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sanman 06 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Oh you're out there. Nope, family and a bunch of friends are either retired from or in Q5 Ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: What about the RGEM? It has been consistently showing an extreme solution unless it changed last run. Too extreme to trust? Inside 24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 6 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: What about the RGEM? It has been consistently showing an extreme solution unless it changed last run. Too extreme to trust? The RGEM is pretty unreliable beyond 36 from my experience. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Taking a big bus into Pier 88 Monday for a 10:15am pick-up. Not looking forward to it at all. Especially the ride across I-80 in NJ afterward. It's going to be fun...not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maureen Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 O/T - A lot of weenie "reactions" flying around in here! I wonder if at least some (though not @RayJay lol) were simply meant to be "likes," but once the weenie was added where it is a lot of us have mistakenly used it! Hmm, mods, was that done by design? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maureen Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 hahahahaha @Ericjcrash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, Maureen said: hahahahaha @Ericjcrash I had to. GFS initialized. Let's see if it shows a flake or two this run... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NepaJames8602 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED National Weather Service Binghamton NY 349 PM EST Sat Nov 30 2019 NYZ018-044-056-062-PAZ039-040-044-048-072-011100- /O.UPG.KBGM.WS.A.0010.191201T1200Z-191203T0000Z/ /O.EXB.KBGM.WS.W.0011.191201T1200Z-191203T0000Z/ Onondaga-Cortland-Broome-Sullivan-Susquehanna-Northern Wayne- Lackawanna-Pike-Southern Wayne- Including the cities of Syracuse, Cortland, Binghamton, Monticello, Hallstead, Montrose, Damascus, Equinunk, Scranton, Milford, and Honesdale 349 PM EST Sat Nov 30 2019 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow and mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of 9 to 15 inches and ice accumulations of around one tenth of an inch. * WHERE...In Pennsylvania, Susquehanna, Northern Wayne, Lackawanna, Pike and Southern Wayne counties. In New York, Onondaga, Cortland, Broome and Sullivan counties. * WHEN...A mixture of snow, sleet and freezing rain will overspread the area Sunday morning, and continue through the daytime hours. The wintry mix then changes to all snow after midnight Sunday night, and could be heavy at times through the day Monday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The heaviest period of snow is expected to occur later Sunday night into Monday. Snowfall rates up to 2 inches per hour are expected at times. Temperatures hover in the mid 20s to lower 30s through the event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 30 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I am going with a blend of the Euro/UK for now. GFS I always toss til inside 24-30 on these events. NAM cannot be trusted til it shows the same scenario 2-3 consecutive runs. When the NAM consistently shows something big its usually right. Any jumping back and forth and you can typically toss it Are you going with the Ukmet idea of the deformation band down almost to the north Philly suburbs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 1 minute ago, NepaJames8602 said: Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED National Weather Service Binghamton NY 349 PM EST Sat Nov 30 2019 NYZ018-044-056-062-PAZ039-040-044-048-072-011100- /O.UPG.KBGM.WS.A.0010.191201T1200Z-191203T0000Z/ /O.EXB.KBGM.WS.W.0011.191201T1200Z-191203T0000Z/ Onondaga-Cortland-Broome-Sullivan-Susquehanna-Northern Wayne- Lackawanna-Pike-Southern Wayne- Including the cities of Syracuse, Cortland, Binghamton, Monticello, Hallstead, Montrose, Damascus, Equinunk, Scranton, Milford, and Honesdale 349 PM EST Sat Nov 30 2019 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow and mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of 9 to 15 inches and ice accumulations of around one tenth of an inch. * WHERE...In Pennsylvania, Susquehanna, Northern Wayne, Lackawanna, Pike and Southern Wayne counties. In New York, Onondaga, Cortland, Broome and Sullivan counties. * WHEN...A mixture of snow, sleet and freezing rain will overspread the area Sunday morning, and continue through the daytime hours. The wintry mix then changes to all snow after midnight Sunday night, and could be heavy at times through the day Monday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning and evening commutes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The heaviest period of snow is expected to occur later Sunday night into Monday. Snowfall rates up to 2 inches per hour are expected at times. Temperatures hover in the mid 20s to lower 30s through the event. Too bad this wasnt a weekend event. Would've been at my house ~2000' in Delaware county between Roscoe and Delhi. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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