SnowGoose69 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, forkyfork said: the mid level tracks are great for us The Euro signature producing the snow over NYC and N-NW of there almost looks like a norlun trof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 41 minutes ago, HailMan06 said: I look to be in a good position to see 1'+ here in Middletown, NY. Yes we are looking good up this way 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The Euro signature producing the snow over NYC and N-NW of there almost looks like a norlun trof Some of the other models have shown something similar though represented differently - they may be on to something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted November 30, 2019 Author Share Posted November 30, 2019 6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The Euro signature producing the snow over NYC and N-NW of there almost looks like a norlun trof same bandied feature that GFS showed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 25 minutes ago, forkyfork said: this would be a slam dunk with a better airmass Yeah, you can see how the models have been shifting for days on the P-type , locations, amounts, and temperatures. It’s enough to make some forecasters want to move to a warmer climate without P-type issues. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 1 hour ago, Brasiluvsnow said: 88 , help a brother out as I sucked at math never mind ZULU ( LOL ) IS 12Z = 7am ? Probably dyscalculia. It was rarely diagnosed back in the day; a relatively intelligent person who can't make sense of math. Could be sitting in one class dissecting Moby Dick passages then walk into Algebra and within ten minutes be going WTF? So I rely on people here to interpret the technical stuff. Most do a good job IMO. After all these years I still gotta look up those times ( I know military times from having been a guard in college ). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 1.5 liq to work with temp prog for Monday night...7pm at 991mb ---nice surprises for more than a few .....IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 12 minutes ago, forkyfork said: the mid level tracks are great for us My rule of thumb, Forky, is to buy gas for the snowblower once you start getting interested in a storm....fortunately I bought some during a recent power outage. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, weatherpruf said: Probably dyscalculia. It was rarely diagnosed back in the day; a relatively intelligent person who can't make sense of math. Could be sitting in one class dissecting Moby Dick passages then walk into Algebra and within ten minutes be going WTF? So I rely on people here to interpret the technical stuff. Most do a good job IMO. After all these years I still gotta look up those times ( I know military times from having been a guard in college ). I think its 7 or 8 am and yeah I know we are on a weather site but damn if I can remember or ever get it correct BTW there she blows !!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Quote Model Diagnostic Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 207 PM EST Sat Nov 30 2019 Valid Nov 30/1200 UTC thru Dec 04/0000 UTC ...See NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) for the status of the upper air ingest... 12Z Model Evaluation with Final Preferences and Confidence ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ...Deep closed low tracking east from the Plains to the East Coast... ...Secondary surface low development south of Long Island... ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Preference: near the 00Z ECMWF mean or a 3-way blend of the 12Z NAM/12Z GFS/ECMWF Confidence: Slightly above average ...19Z update... Previous thinking continues to hold true for this storm system, near the 00Z ECMWF mean, with the understanding that future model cycles will continue to make minor adjustments. A blended approach continues to appear best at this time. The 12Z UKMET/CMC remain different enough with their handling of the surface low and redevelopment off of the Northeast coastline Monday into Tuesday to exclude them from the WPC preference. The 12Z ECMWF trended a bit stronger and west with its triple point low redevelopment (tertiary low) Monday night toward the New England coastline. It now lies the west-most of the NAM/GFS/ECMWF combination and slightly west of the 00Z ECMWF mean. However, when incorporated into a blend with the 12Z NAM/GFS, the 12Z ECMWF is an acceptable blended component for this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Any chance Watches get extended southward in the next update? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 1 minute ago, ILoveWinter said: Any chance Watches get extended southward in the next update? Not likely since the forecast for the city is so volatile. It will be a last minute type of thing on Monday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said: Not likely since the forecast for the city is so volatile. It will be a last minute type of thing on Monday Wouldn't be surprised by a WWA tonight which can always be upgraded or lifted. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 39 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, you can see how the models have been shifting for days on the P-type , locations, amounts, and temperatures. It’s enough to make some forecasters want to move to a warmer climate without P-type issues. It’s not far from the 12/5/03 case where the airmass was a little colder, and rain never made it to Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 5 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Not likely since the forecast for the city is so volatile. It will be a last minute type of thing on Monday I’d say NYC and northern LI get an advisory for now. 2-5” is a generally good range for this area, which could be higher if the banding does happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, jm1220 said: I’d say NYC and northern LI get an advisory for now. 2-5” is a generally good range for this area, which could be higher if the banding does happen. Yeah assuming no massive 00Z shift my guess is at 4am they issue a WWA for monday afternoon and evening for 2-4 or something. I'm not sure they won't issue one for tomorrow too from 10am-2pm just because its first event of year but technically the event tomorrow falls short of criteria Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, jm1220 said: I’d say NYC and northern LI get an advisory for now. 2-5” is a generally good range for this area, which could be higher if the banding does happen. I concur. Can always cancel or upgrade if so lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: Yeah assuming no massive 00Z shift my guess is at 4am they issue a WWA for monday afternoon and evening for 2-4 or something. I'm not sure they won't issue one for tomorrow too from 10am-2pm just because its first event of year but technically the event tomorrow falls short of criteria And tomorrow is such a busy travel day as well but really unnecessary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 NAM really comes in like a wall tomorrow, it's too bad the airmass wasn't just a bit colder, could get really nasty just NW of the city if it comes in like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: NAM really comes in like a wall tomorrow, it's too bad the airmass wasn't just a bit colder, could get really nasty just NW of the city if it comes in like that Tomorrow can be forgotten. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, Ericjcrash said: Tomorrow can be forgotten. Yea probably, for the city I would say yes, for the suburbs travel could be very tricky tomorrow late morning/early afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 7 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: NAM really comes in like a wall tomorrow, it's too bad the airmass wasn't just a bit colder, could get really nasty just NW of the city if it comes in like that The NAM seems the slowest of all the models. The Euro by my interpolation had precip into NYC by 14-1430Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: The NAM seems the slowest of all the models. The Euro by my interpolation had precip into NYC by 14-1430Z If it comes in really heavy with the low dewpoints it will help with rapid evaporational cooling. Unfortunately the warm push is also very strong. I would not rule out an hour or two of very heavy snow/sleet though even down to places like the North Bronx/Upper Manhattan/North shore of LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 NAM looking juicy for Monday so far Albeit warm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 City ripping 18z Monday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: NAM looking juicy for Monday so far Albeit warm Northern NJ and Lower HV will get crushed. The surface temps for the city worry me but might be overcome if it's heavy enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Amazing similarity on that band with Euro, RGEM, and NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Getting NAMed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted November 30, 2019 Author Share Posted November 30, 2019 All models now show that same deform band in N NJ/NYC now 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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