HVSnowLover Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: The big amounts came slightly further south. By all means this isn't the end solution. No it's not but it just makes sense given overall storm setup, the GFS has the secondary low almost going over NYC, that would favor inland areas to get the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, HVSnowLover said: No it's not but it just makes sense given overall storm setup, the GFS has the secondary low almost going over NYC, that would favor inland areas to get the snow. The ull is in a much more favorable spot on this run. The bands would have to swing around. GFS temps are a joke. Rgem has frozen to start tomorrow even for the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, Snow88 said: The ull is in a much more favorable spot on this run. The bands would have to swing around. GFS temps are a joke. Rgem has frozen to start tomorrow even for the city. I know the GFS temps are a joke but my point is if the secondary is tracking closer to the coast it will create more issues changing to all snow at the coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, HVSnowLover said: I know the GFS temps are a joke but my point is if the secondary is tracking closer to the coast it will create more issues changing to all snow at the coast. It really looks like the best chance the city and coast have for accumulations is Monday night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 1 minute ago, HeadInTheClouds said: It really looks like the best chance the city and coast have for accumulations is Monday night. Yep that is what upton is forecasting now the main accumulating snow in the city to be Monday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted November 30, 2019 Author Share Posted November 30, 2019 New GFS nice snowstorm for the metro, 3-6" and more N/W 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 2 minutes ago, Zelocita Weather said: New GFS nice snowstorm for the metro, 3-6" and more N/W GFS has an inch for the city with a lot more to the west because of the banding. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJsnow89 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 3 minutes ago, Zelocita Weather said: New GFS nice snowstorm for the metro, 3-6" and more N/W Not true. Only an inch for NYc 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 New RGEM and CMC is cold to start even for the coast 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 2 hours ago, West Mtn NY said: It's an open forum in NE also and somehow its not a bunch of teenagers bantering absurdity for half the posts. Ah, this place would be infinitely dull without the basement types. I could read NOAA forecasts if I just want unfiltered, straight up forecasts. They have a pretty good discussion portion for each area; gets right to the point. And they are all experts ( and they are wrong sometimes too; in fact the disrespect for experts in this culture has been called the meteorologist syndrome...). So, lighten up a bit. Be happy some teens in basements are here instead of engaging in less respectable endeavors. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 5 minutes ago, Snow88 said: New RGEM and CMC is cold to start even for the coast I think it's reasonable to expect the city to start off wintry given the ultra dry air mass working into the Northeast now. The warming aloft on SW flow is swift, so any snow will be brief, with pellets more likely, and probably some freezing rain in NNJ, Bronx, White Plains, etc. Still plenty of evidence Monday could deliver, but I still don't think we'll have much confidence in this until late Sunday evening, or more likely, early Monday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 FOR PERSPECTIVE: Prior to this thread beginning, I read the long range forecast from Upton Snow->Snow/Rain->Rain->Snow/Rain->Snow That was Wednesday 17 pages later, the models are very consistent...even if you dont want to see it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 7 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: FOR PERSPECTIVE: Prior to this thread beginning, I read the long range forecast from Upton Snow->Snow/Rain->Rain->Snow/Rain->Snow That was Wednesday 17 pages later, the models are very consistent...even if you dont want to see it That's a good forecast lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Big differences in outcomes among the guidance illustrate the considerable uncertainty that still exists. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Cmc is a big hit warning snows for nyc 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 15 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: I think it's reasonable to expect the city to start off wintry given the ultra dry air mass working into the Northeast now. The warming aloft on SW flow is swift, so any snow will be brief, with pellets more likely, and probably some freezing rain in NNJ, Bronx, White Plains, etc. Still plenty of evidence Monday could deliver, but I still don't think we'll have much confidence in this until late Sunday evening, or more likely, early Monday. It's going to tough to warm-up the surface especially just N&W of the city. I see a dangerous icy situation unfolding for parts of the region. Monday will be a wildcard for sure, unfortunately the positive trends from yesterday didn't continue so now it'll be more of a waiting game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 11 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Cmc is a big hit warning snows for nyc Ukie also improved big time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 23 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Cmc is a big hit warning snows for nyc That solution is the only way NYC gets anything appreciable. Need the CCB to set up overhead. RGEM has been consistent thinking it will happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 City gets wrecked but ZERO wiggle room. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 16 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Ukie also improved big time Nice hit for the NW burbs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, Ericjcrash said: City gets wrecked but ZERO wiggle room. Its too warm on the thermals. I think based on the H5 and surface lows there would be more snow into NJ than that. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binbisso Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 For the first part of the storm we need precipitation to get here as quickly as possible but even if it's delayed a couple hours I think we're going to see minor accumulations even down to the coast dew points are around 10 degrees right now and there should be good radiational cooling tonight away from the urban heat island as for the second part of the storm we're almost going to have to wait and watch the radar and see where the banding sets up very tough forecast really feel for all you meteorologist trying to put out a forecast for this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Its too warm on the thermals. I think based on the H5 and surface lows there would be more snow into NJ than that. Too warm as in its ugly or too warm as in its warmer than it should be given what it shows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 11 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: City gets wrecked but ZERO wiggle room. I mean yea if you're relying on that good luck lol but it can happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, HVSnowLover said: I mean yea if you're relying on that good luck lol but it can happen Every model is favorable at 12z except the Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 7 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Too warm as in its ugly or too warm as in its warmer than it should be given what it shows? It should be colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Where do you see clown maps on tidbits? I can't find the link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Ukmet is east of what it was last night it’s better! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Looks like every model agrees there's going to be a band of heavy snow in NNJ or somewhere near the NY/NJ border. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 I’ve noticed and I think it was mentioned in the New England forum that there’s some sort of random blob of heavy precipitation that keeps popping up near NYC as the low tracks just to the south. Any idea what is causing that on the models? Is that just banding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now