NJwx85 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 I think 1-3” is a great call for the city with 2-4” for the immediate NW suburbs and parts of LI. 3-6” once you get near 287 in NJ and North of the Thruway in Rockland. 4-8” for Northern Westchester, 3-6” near the Tappan Zee bridge and 1-3” for Southern Westchester and the Northern Bronx. Once North of 84 in NY I like 6-10”, same for the Pocoos and extreme NW NJ. NW of Newburg I see the greatest potential for >12”. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edubbs83 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 15 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Might be generous at this point. Gave me something to follow the past few days though so whatever. 6z suite was brutal. 6z and 18z runs aren’t as reliable given lack of data fed into them relative to 12z and 0z. Would just focus on those when they come out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 11 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Might be generous at this point. Gave me something to follow the past few days though so whatever. 6z suite was brutal. 6Z Euro was a major improvement vs. 0Z Euro for CNJ and NYC metro/LI... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, RU848789 said: 6Z Euro was a major improvement vs. 0Z Euro for CNJ and NYC metro/LI... Just based on history, these backend deformation bands rarely work out for us. It’s usually people to our North and East that get clobbered. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Someone notify upton, they are orders of magnitude too high for parts of the metro, sure hope they know this entire map is only gonna see 1/2”. What a terrible incoming bust for okx. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 2 minutes ago, BxEngine said: Someone notify upton, they are orders of magnitude too high for parts of the metro, sure hope they know this entire map is only gonna see 1/2”. What a terrible incoming bust for okx. Not really sure why you feel this way... I think the city gets a few inches. This isn’t a traditional backend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, allgame830 said: Not really sure why you feel this way... I think the city gets a few inches. This isn’t a traditional backend. I dont feel that way, my sarcasm is lost in the written word. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 The problem with this forum is you have people posting out of mommy's basement that NYC with water temps in the 50s and against climo is "gonna get crushed" and "the NAM is a top three American model" along with the Euro and UKMET. These posts (a ton of them) make this forum unreadable. Then one goes to the NE forum where for the vast majority of posts there's actually thoughtful insights being discussed until NYC crazy town postings start showing up in their sub forum. Once it became obvious NYC was not a jackpot zone this morning, mommy's basement weather warrior slinks away in silence. Sad.. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 8 minutes ago, Edubbs83 said: 6z and 18z runs aren’t as reliable given lack of data fed into them relative to 12z and 0z. Would just focus on those when they come out. Not true. As of this 2014 thread, the 6/18Z scores were slightly worse than 12/0Z, but much better than the 6-hr previous model run, which is mostly a function of being 6 hours closer to the event, which will almost always result in a more accurate forecast, given numerical modeling of chaotic systems, like the weather, where forecast errors always get worse the further out in time one goes. I also recall reading more recently that the 6/18Z gap had narrowed further, but couldn't find that in a quick search. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 1 minute ago, West Mtn NY said: The problem with this forum is you have people posting out of mommy's basement that NYC with water temps in the 50s and against climo is "gonna get crushed" and "the NAM is a top three American model" along with the Euro and UKMET. These posts (a ton of them) make this forum unreadable. Then one goes to the NE forum where for the vast majority of posts there's actually thoughtful insights being discussed until NYC crazy town postings start showing up in their sub forum. Once it became obvious NYC was not a jackpot zone this morning, mommy's basement weather warrior slinks away in silence. Sad.. Eh, relax. I agree that there are some "interesting" posters who occasionally deserve a time out, but there are plenty of knowledgeable ones. Pretty easy to just filter out some of the nonsense if you ask me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 5 minutes ago, BxEngine said: I dont feel that way, my sarcasm is lost in the written word. Ahh my bad bro... didn’t realize you were being sarcastic! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, ILoveWinter said: Eh, relax. I agree that there are some "interesting" posters who occasionally deserve a time out, but there are plenty of knowledgeable ones. Pretty easy to just filter out some of the nonsense if you ask me. None of that nonsense is interesting. If it's said in a post.. fine. When it's spread out in dozens of posts during the day along with questioning people who actually have a clue about the weather, then it's not. It's akin to a petulant child on Christmas morning who opens up his NAM and thinks Santa came 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 22 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I think 1-3” is a great call for the city with 2-4” for the immediate NW suburbs and parts of LI. 3-6” once you get near 287 in NJ and North of the Thruway in Rockland. 4-8” for Northern Westchester, 3-6” near the Tappan Zee bridge and 1-3” for Southern Westchester and the Northern Bronx. Once North of 84 in NY I like 6-10”, same for the Pocoos and extreme NW NJ. NW of Newburg I see the greatest potential for >12”. Well played... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 5 minutes ago, West Mtn NY said: None of that nonsense is interesting. If it's said in a post.. fine. When it's spread out in dozens of posts during the day along with questioning people who actually have a clue about the weather, then it's not. It's akin to a petulant child on Christmas morning who opens up his NAM and thinks Santa came This is an open forum so I sort of expect it and just don't get bothered by it too much, but to each his own I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDemon Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Hot take. Moderation in the sub forum is terrible. Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, ILoveWinter said: This is an open forum so I sort of expect it and just don't get bothered by it too much, but to each his own I guess. It's an open forum in NE also and somehow its not a bunch of teenagers bantering absurdity for half the posts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 53 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Might be generous at this point. Gave me something to follow the past few days though so whatever. 6z suite was brutal. 6z euro and gfs weren't brutal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 1-3 is a good call for NYC unless the storm drifts further south which is possible in a blocking pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 33 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Not really sure why you feel this way... I think the city gets a few inches. This isn’t a traditional backend. Read back a few pages and you will understand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 21 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: Read back a few pages and you will understand Ain’t nobody got time for that LMAO. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted November 30, 2019 Author Share Posted November 30, 2019 New NAM 2-4” for NYC, 4-8” N & W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Anything at this moment is welcomed. First snow of the season and this early. Why complain...its better then nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 the numbers creep up again..... a half hour drive for the die hard weenies....should not be a problem if you love snowstorms backyard QB's the first week of December for the WIN!!!! this is a very very nice (pregame) upper air pattern 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Light to moderate event during the first week of December has been a signal for positive things to come for season. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Catskills to up around Albany will be crushed. For the city 1-3, 3-6 for the suburbs, 6-12 Hudson Valley to interior CT Somewhere will get more if they get under good banding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 4 minutes ago, Snowman86 said: Anything at this moment is welcomed. First snow of the season and this early. Why complain...its better then nothing. I agree. We rarely get an early snowfall like this. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, HVSnowLover said: Catskills to up around Albany will be crushed. For the city 1-3, 3-6 for the suburbs, 6-12 Hudson Valley to interior CT Somewhere will get more if they get under good banding Biggest wildcard. Models tend to struggle in these situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Nam looks better let’s just put it that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Looks like a goose egg this time around for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 1 minute ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Nam looks better let’s just put it that way No 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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