Snowlover11 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 nam vs everything else so far tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 1 minute ago, Snowlover11 said: nam vs everything else so far tonight If the CCB doesn’t pan out, NYC and coast might walk away with an inch or two or even less. If it’s a bunch of light snow or snow showers behind the low, it’ll struggle to accumulate outside of cold surfaces. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 8 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: nam vs everything else so far tonight GFS isn't bad for a few inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 16 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: nam vs everything else so far tonight I ain't a betting man but... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Mailman Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Lets see what Ukie and Euro say. A NAM/Ukie/Euro combo is usually deadly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingbaus Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Any word on the Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 1 minute ago, kingbaus said: Any word on the Ukie Ugly edit stalls the occluded low and dumps. Big hit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 People are seriously losing their minds and it's not even December yet, lol. 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJsnow89 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 11 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Ugly edit stalls the occluded low and dumps. Big hit Not really. Very warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 11 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Ugly edit stalls the occluded low and dumps. Big hit Even if the low kinda pivots near Long Island for a time it might not be bad with the crashing temps due to the upper air low and possible CCB. If anything that might hurt eastern New England since it prolongs the onshore flow. As long as the low is east of your longitude it wouldn’t be bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Can somebody actually post the Ukie instead of vague descriptions like ugly and warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 1 minute ago, kingbaus said: Euro is a no go. Looks like the nam is on it's own. North and West areas do well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 7 minutes ago, kingbaus said: Euro is a no go. Looks like the nam is on it's own. Not exactly. It is more that the Ukie and Nam had more interaction with the kicker whereas the Euro seems to only partially interact. Remember, this particular s/w is still over 'No-Mans land' in Canada and is therefore yet to be sampled fully. This particular s/w will have a rather significant impact in regards to sensible weather near the coast, so I would be interested to see how this evolves over the next day or so. Edit- the 'kicker' is still towards the Gulf of Alaska, not quite yet into Canada. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/ensmean_f096_us.html money shot....imo 6+ for the metro is solid OPC ..latest https://ocean.weather.gov/Atl_tab.php 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 https://digital.weather.gov/ upside ...nothing but upside---- for the crew in here ----- 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, Doorman said: https://digital.weather.gov/ upside ...nothing but upside---- for the crew in here ----- NIce to see you thinking the area is going to receive a nice hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 18 minutes ago, USCG RS said: NIce to see you thinking the area is going to receive a nice hit. Coastie......nice work from you as always the 18-20 lolly from the NOAA prog will have this place buzzing I cant say how much I dig that ESRL Ens-Mean it has made me look golden when I go all in !!!! BEST 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Part of me wants to stay in northern CT at my childhood home and enjoy the snowfall, but the adult side of me says I don’t think too much will be closed in NYC Monday. Should be decent here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: I am just looking at what could happen with the set up. No help from the PNA and AO could allow a more northward motion. This is what happened with the 0z Euro. But we’ll see what happens next few runs. I think the AO might be overrated here because it’s in the process of flipping. It’s common to see big snows here often times when the AO or NAO are switching phases. I still think we won’t know anything for another 24 hours for Monday because where exactly these bands of snow setup and how fast the system closes won’t be nailed down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 17 minutes ago, bluewave said: I am just looking at what could happen with the set up. No help from the PNA and AO could allow a more northward motion. This is what happened with the 0z Euro. But we’ll see what happens next few runs. We don’t want to see much more northward movement. Blue Wave or anyone else = I go onto Pivotal Weather but I was not aware that I could get a snow map that you just posted. The maps I look at on there show a much broader / way larger portion of the North East . Can you tell me where / how I can find the map that you just posted which narrows areas down and shows Eastern to Shirley and Marlboro to Danbury ? Thanks in advance guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, bluewave said: I agree that that the most accurate runs for what actually happens will be next few days. But the slightly -PNA and AO going positive could allow a slight northward drift from earlier runs. It’s rare to see a heavy snow at the coast in early December with this 500 mb composite. So we need some of the famous 2010’s snowstorm luck to get some more favorable changes next few runs. , I thihk for sure someone will fluke their way to big snow totals here similar to 12/25/02 where a very small deformation zone setup that hit NYC and western LI but if you went down to even southern Staten Island or central or eastern LI they saw almost nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Somewhere up around the Capital district is going to get clobbered by this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 10 minutes ago, bluewave said: I agree that that the most accurate runs for what actually happens will be next few days. But the slightly -PNA and AO going positive could allow a slight northward drift from earlier runs. It’s rare to see a heavy snow at the coast in early December with this 500 mb composite. So we need some of the famous 2010’s snowstorm luck to get smore favorable changes next few runs. There is still time. , There’s no evidence to support your argument. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, bluewave said: Which argument? That model error has a direction based on index state. That’s just not true. The model already takes into account the upper air pattern in solving the math. The storm path is no more likely to drift south or north. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 2 minutes ago, Drz1111 said: That model error has a direction based on index state. That’s just not true. The model already takes into account the upper air pattern in solving the math. The storm path is no more likely to drift south or north. Your assessment is not accurate. Pattern, especially the negative PNA wreaks of a northern solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 8 minutes ago, Enigma said: Your assessment is not accurate. Pattern, especially the negative PNA wreaks of a northern solution. It’s “reeks”, and if that’s the case, show your proof. Every guy posting forecasts on the internet, even guys with degrees, has their own set of pulled-out-of-their-ass model biases, and they’re mostly bullshit. 1 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, Drz1111 said: It’s “reeks”, and if that’s the case, show your proof. Every guy posting forecasts on the internet, even guys with degrees, has their own set of pulled-out-of-their-ass model biases, and they’re mostly bullshit. I reccommend staying positive and enjoying the 1/2 inch of snow that falls on the metro. 3 1 10 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 34 minutes ago, Enigma said: I reccommend staying positive and enjoying the 1/2 inch of snow that falls on the metro. Might be generous at this point. Gave me something to follow the past few days though so whatever. 6z suite was brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 4 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Might be generous at this point. Gave me something to follow the past few days though so whatever. 6z suite was brutal. Amateur here, been around since 2010, but I can say these forum discussions all have a pattern; they waffle back and forth, my portion of CNJ is always on the border of any precip, and nothing is locked in until the night before the event starts. And even then, at least in my area, it doesn't usually look like what was forecast ( several storms over the years delivered inches when feet were forecast ) . Even Boxing Day wasn't really fixed until shortly before. Oh, and rain always gets here sooner than forecast. And I have yet to see a significant backend ( as opposed to a storm that flips to snow; those I have seen ). Still, I love the back and forth and marvel at how nature throws curve balls at even the best here. Learned a lot from you folks. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Amateur here, been around since 2010, but I can say these forum discussions all have a pattern; they waffle back and forth, my portion of CNJ is always on the border of any precip, and nothing is locked in until the night before the event starts. And even then, at least in my area, it doesn't usually look like what was forecast ( several storms over the years delivered inches when feet were forecast ) . Even Boxing Day wasn't really fixed until shortly before. Oh, and rain always gets here sooner than forecast. And I have yet to see a significant backend ( as opposed to a storm that flips to snow; those I have seen ). Still, I love the back and forth and marvel at how nature throws curve balls at even the best here. Learned a lot from you folks. Novice here myself = Weatherpruf you are a winner, give this man any prize on the top shelf. I could not agree with you more 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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