dmillz25 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Wow this is looking good. CCB about to make an appearance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 32 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: or possibly guarded as there is still time for changes This 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Weird look on the NAM, 850s having a really hard time clearing the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 nyc cashes in a bit on the back end, sne of course is hammered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Nam looks nice with that CCB. looks like a foot for NYC , not much for Long Island. Anyone got clown maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted November 30, 2019 Author Share Posted November 30, 2019 Most of N NJ would get 6-12” from the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 2 minutes ago, David-LI said: Nam looks nice with that CCB. looks like a foot for NYC , not much for Long Island. Anyone got clown maps? Not quite a foot. But nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Nyc watch out this could be a huge storm this is so close to a mecs 1 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Not quite a foot. But nice. That would be a very nice storm for these parts for this time of year. Anyone remember the early Dec 95 storm? Another one that took people by surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 What a beautiful run. Ukie, RGEM and now the Nam are tucked and really cold. Mesoscale models will be the best with this storm. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingbaus Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 6-12 inches is a good way to start the season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Not sure how reliable NAM 3k is but at hr 60 it looks like a 988 low under Long Island about to get real Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Wonder how the meso models will handle the banding features in this type of setup. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 3 minutes ago, David-LI said: Not sure how reliable NAM 3k is but at hr 60 it looks like a 988 low under Long Island about to get real Very good inside 36. I will probably use that entirely to determine ptype for the Sunday morning stuff 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingbaus Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 ICON looking interesting looks like we might get smacked. Ok i was wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 This is not an ideal I-95 setup by any means. IMHO, this will be a major letdown for most south and east of I-80. Possible CCB does not get organized until late in the game. Take the NAM and cut in half, and then cut in half again! 1 2 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 5 minutes ago, kingbaus said: ICON looking interesting looks like we might get smacked. Ok i was wrong Don’t even look at that model that’s the worst model...worse than navgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 I wouldn’t get too excited yet about relying on a CCB to produce big accums. We won’t know until it happens where it sets up and how heavy it is. It could be a slushy inch or 6 if it really does set up overhead. The axis for where it’s primed to be best between both the initial push and whatever happens after is the same Boston to Catskills area as yesterday. Areas south of that in the Hudson Valley, maybe NW NJ and inland CT should be okay too. Below there it’s really a crap shoot where it depends almost entirely on what rotates around after the upper low cools it down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 The 0z NAM did little to undermine my initial thoughts posted earlier that New York City (Central Park) and Newark appear to be in line for a general 3"-6" snowfall. Locations such as Poughkeepsie and Albany could see 8"-16". The NAM exceeds those amounts, especially in and around Albany. The rest of the guidance will be interesting. It's still a high-risk storm as a relatively small shift in track and or evolution of the upper level low could make a large difference in and around NYC and probably in nearby Nassau County. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, jm1220 said: I wouldn’t get too excited yet about relying on a CCB to produce big accums. We won’t know until it happens where it sets up and how heavy it is. It could be a slushy inch or 6 if it really does set up overhead. The axis for where it’s primed to be best between both the initial push and whatever happens after is the same Boston to Catskills area as yesterday. Areas south of that in the Hudson Valley, maybe NW NJ and inland CT should be okay too. Below there it’s really a crap shoot where it depends almost entirely on what rotates around after the upper low cools it down. Well said, agree. There is a reason the watches are up for the places they are up for and nothing for the city. There is high confidence of significant snow in these areas but the city could be 1 inch or could be a miracle but it's so dependent on the randomness of a CCB band. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Well said, agree. There is a reason the watches are up for the places they are up for and nothing for the city. There is high confidence of significant snow in these areas but the city could be 1 inch or could be a miracle but it's so dependent on the randomness of a CCB band. There's low confidence at this juncture. Highly suspect that Warren/Sussex will get warning criteria snow, other watch areas will get early season advisory criteria. All others, including city, see dusting to 2. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingbaus Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 2 minutes ago, Enigma said: There's low confidence at this juncture. Highly suspect that Warren/Sussex will get warning criteria snow, other watch areas will get early season advisory criteria. All others, including city, see dusting to 2. I want to be optimistic after seeing the NAM, but I'm going to agree with you. GFS is looking very warm so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 5 minutes ago, Enigma said: There's low confidence at this juncture. Highly suspect that Warren/Sussex will get warning criteria snow, other watch areas will get early season advisory criteria. All others, including city, see dusting to 2. Unlike many people these days, I tend to defer to expertise. You've got credentials, and in legal speak, your expert opinion is given great weight... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingbaus Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 GFS looks like trash for the NYC area but not SNE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 5 minutes ago, kingbaus said: I want to be optimistic after seeing the NAM, but I'm going to agree with you. GFS is looking very warm so far. Honestly looks about the same as every other GFS run. The models have been pretty consistent now for the past day, this is an interior storm, it will snow on the coast but much accumulation can not be expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, kingbaus said: GFS looks like trash for the NYC area but not SNE. GFS and trash does go together The thermals are horrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, weatherpruf said: Unlike many people these days, I tend to defer to expertise. You've got credentials, and in legal speak, your expert opinion is given great weight... Funny how some people write off people with credentials these days just because they don’t tell them what they want to hear. I’m hearing many Mets optimistic yet admitting they may still have to go way down or up on totals as we continue to see how this progresses. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, HVSnowLover said: Honestly looks about the same as every other GFS run. The models have been pretty consistent now for the past day, this is an interior storm, it will snow on the coast but much accumulation can not be expected. GFS gave NYC 10 inches last run. It keeps waffling. Go with the mesoscale models this close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 lol and the gfs brings everyone back down to earth. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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