Sn0waddict Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Much more precip vs 12z too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Just now, Sn0waddict said: Lol at the random heavy snow band over nyc at hr 72, that would be entertaining if it came to fruition. Convective blob of 12+ on the clown. Oh GFS..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 The key for this evolution of the storm for the NYC metro region is the H5 energy that hangs back along the trough axis closer to the NJ coastline. The trough elongates as the primary low reorganizes off the NJ coastline and gets ejected northeastward quickly, then as the energy hangs back to the southwest the low develops southwestward towards DE and NJ and then prolongs the event so it cools down enough for snow on the second low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 59 minutes ago, Neblizzard said: Hopefully the moderators deal with this then. They aren't the same person and nycweathernow has been banned like 10 times so don't take his word for anything. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Convective blob of 12+ on the clown. Oh GFS..... Thats a very possible scenario for areas 50 miles N and W of NYC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 10 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: In 03? There were two storms in a week; one was a 14 inch all snow, the other a week later was a mixed event. Perhaps I have them confused.. There was one mid month that was a slushfest couple of inches. The big one was the 5th and 6th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 8 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Convective blob of 12+ on the clown. Oh GFS..... LOL it finally caved 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Rgem 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 8 minutes ago, Snow88 said: LOL it finally caved It was just a random band that no model can pinpoint until we are in the HRRR range. Wouldn’t say it caved to anything. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 1 minute ago, Rjay said: Rgem Is that snow after 72h though? Lot of precip in that 12 hour period for NYC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Just now, Ericjcrash said: Is that snow after 72h though? Lot of precip in that 12 hour period for NYC It's snow during the entire 84hr run. I had issues getting it but Geoff helped me out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Just now, Rjay said: It's snow during the entire 84hr run. I had issues getting it but Geoff helped me out. RGEM is not quite in its deadly range quite yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Just now, USCG RS said: RGEM is not quite in its deadly range quite yet Will be interesting to see what the hi res meso models do with the banding during their runs tomorrow and Sunday. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 1 minute ago, Rjay said: It's snow during the entire 84hr run. I had issues getting it but Geoff helped me out. Oh duh. Just assumed it was QPF. Wow though ~20mm after 72 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 3 minutes ago, USCG RS said: RGEM is not quite in its deadly range quite yet Yeah that's wacky time. But would be an absolutely epic 12 hours for NYC and Nassau co. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 4 minutes ago, Rjay said: Will be interesting to see what the hi res meso models do with the banding during their runs tomorrow and Sunday. I have noticed that the RGEM AND HDRPS are way colder at the surface for the onset of the storm. Like 5+ degrees. Maybe they are on to something, though probably not. Wish the HDRP went out farther hour 48 looks sweet lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveTinNY Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Just had a chuckle... NBC TV met showed 12-18" by Tuesday morning in the Putnam/Dutchess/north areas. I work 12 hr shifts in Hopewell Jct. so it could be an early departure on Sunday if this comes to life. Just mounted the studded snows today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Just now, Sn0waddict said: I have noticed that the RGEM AND HDRPS are way colder at the surface for the onset of the storm. Like 5+ degrees. Maybe they are on to something, though probably not. Wish the HDRP went out farther hour 48 looks sweet lol I'm not even interested in the initial batch for my area. Our NW crew should see a plowable snow out of that though which is awesome. I'm more interested for when the meso models get in range for the ULL banding. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 2 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: I have noticed that the RGEM AND HDRPS are way colder at the surface for the onset of the storm. Like 5+ degrees. Maybe they are on to something, though probably not. Wish the HDRP went out farther hour 48 looks sweet lol HI res RGEM would be a fun 2 hours Sunday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 1 minute ago, Rjay said: I'm not even interested in the initial batch for my area. Our NW crew should see a plowable snow out of that though which is awesome. I'm more interested for when the meso models get in range for the ULL banding. Yep. Maybe a nice hour or so here but largely a non issue for us down here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 1 minute ago, Rjay said: I'm not even interested in the initial batch for my area. Our NW crew should see a plowable snow out of that though which is awesome. I'm more interested for when the meso models get in range for the ULL banding. Think that might not even be sorted out entirely until the initial thump is already on our doorstep. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Just now, Sn0waddict said: Think that might not even be sorted out entirely until the initial thump is already on our doorstep. Prob won't be sorted out until it's happening which makes this all the more fun or frustrating, depending on how you look at it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 3 minutes ago, Rjay said: Prob won't be sorted out until it's happening which makes this all the more fun or frustrating, depending on how you look at it. Usually both lol. Somebody's getting a nice band that's looking very likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 how accurate is the rgem? thats the “snowiest” model as far as totals further south than any other model shown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 3 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: how accurate is the rgem? thats the “snowiest” model as far as totals further south than any other model shown It just has a band placed absolutely perfectly later Monday. It's good but out of range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Janice Huff has upped snowfall amounts. 3-5 for NYC metro with 5-8 inland. As you get into the I-84 corridor a foot or more. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 29 minutes ago, Rjay said: Prob won't be sorted out until it's happening which makes this all the more fun or frustrating, depending on how you look at it. Why do I have the feeling we're going to see a redux of last November's snowstorm. DPW better be on alert with this one. Highly volatile forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 2 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said: Why do I have the feeling we're going to see a redux of last November's snowstorm. DPW better be on alert with this one. Highly volatile forecast. I live in Clifton NJ and work in West Caldwell. Normally it would take me 20 mins to get back home going threw 80 east. This time last year it took me over 8 hours. I never want to experience that ever again. Complete grid lock aka shut down and complete failure of the state to do proper work during snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 These storms tend to come in faster than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Just now, Snow88 said: These storms tend to come in faster than modeled. Tony, you have almost 40K posts. Not gonna lie, kind of impressed. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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