SnowGoose69 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 6 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Unless there there is a sneaky warm layer? In that setup it’s hard to have a warm layer for a very long period. That’s a very strong closed system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Still thinking it'll be a 6-10" storm away from immediate coast. Front end could surprise as models always underestimate surface cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Just now, SnoSki14 said: Still thinking it'll be a 6-10" storm away from immediate coast. Front end could surprise as models always underestimate surface cold. Yeah front end could be very icy. I highly doubt at the moment outside of far northern suburbs there’s any appreciable snow on that front end 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 7 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: It may start as snow if the initial dynamics are strong enough. I'm not saying it's going to be anything like November 2018 but I also wouldn't completely write off that first burst as nothing. November 2018 had a much colder and drier airmass in place to start, there was also extremely strong lifting and dynamics in the DGZ 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 So this is a solid 24 hour event, not a 6-8 hour hit and run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 4 minutes ago, snowman19 said: November 2018 had a much colder and drier airmass in place to start, there was also extremely strong lifting and dynamics in the DGZ I think Nov 2012 is a better comparison. My thought is that heavy deform banding will set up as the secondary low slowly pulls away and intensifies. Temps will easily be cold enough to support snow. Ice/sleet will be a threat on the front end. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Just now, sferic said: So this is a solid 24 hour event, not a 6-8 hour hit and run? There is going to be a lull after the initial WAA mixed precip to rain Sunday afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 4 minutes ago, snowman19 said: November 2018 had a much colder and drier airmass in place to start, there was also extremely strong lifting and dynamics in the DGZ It was also a classic due north mover. Any overrunning event that approaches from the south tends to be badly under modeled here at the coast for two reasons. Usually there is intense banding features due to the iso lift and the cold air locks in better as the gradient flow holds 040-060 for a long time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: It was also a classic due north mover. Any overrunning event that approaches from the south tends to be badly under modeled here at the coast for two reasons. Usually there is intense banding features due to the iso lift and the cold air locks in better as the gradient flow holds 040-060 for a long time. Yea I'm not saying it will be anything like that event, all I was saying was I wouldn't write off picking up a quick inch or two especially for Northern parts of the city/North Shore of LI, some models are hinting at precip coming in like a wall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I think Nov 2012 is a better comparison. My thought is that heavy deform banding will set up as the secondary low slowly pulls away and intensifies. Temps will easily be cold enough to support snow. Ice/sleet will be a threat on the front end. It will depend on how far north the secondary gets going. The models minus only the NAM are moving it further north and west since last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: It will depend on how far north the secondary gets going. The models minus only the NAM are moving it further north and west since last night I generally assume in a pattern with a block that the goal posts will move less inside 72-96 than they otherwise will. This thing may ultimately just have model noise the rest of the way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: It will depend on how far north the secondary gets going. The models minus only the NAM are moving it further north and west since last night Even the NAMs been nudging it north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 10 minutes ago, snowman19 said: It will depend on how far north the secondary gets going. The models minus only the NAM are moving it further north and west since last night In this case what is the ideal scenario in terms of where want the secondary to get going and be at it's strongest, honestly the secondary has me a bit confused in this particular setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 The number one analog from CIPS is 12/5/2003. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 56 minutes ago, psv88 said: But northern half of LI should do ok. It's been a consistent message across much of the modeling that however much falls, this is depicted locally as a north shore jackpot. The LI Sound water temps are in the 40s which isn't that big a deal. Early season snows with water temps near 60 kill the north shore (think Oct 2011, and Nov 2012). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: The number one analog from CIPS is 12/5/2003. http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2004/05-Dec-03.html 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 5 minutes ago, Snow88 said: The number one analog from CIPS is 12/5/2003. that had a colder airmass but the evolution was a 2 parter like this one 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Anyone have the 12z eps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 11 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: that had a colder airmass but the evolution was a 2 parter like this one Maine is not going to get hit like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 18Z NAM looks pretty juiced with the front end push Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Winter Storm Watch just issued for Dutchess and Ulster counties for at least 9 inches of snow/sleet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 57 minutes ago, snowman19 said: November 2018 had a much colder and drier airmass in place to start, there was also extremely strong lifting and dynamics in the DGZ U called for all rain on that event 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Precip breaking out over PA faster thru 57 looks similar otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 5 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Winter Storm Watch just issued for Dutchess and Ulster counties for at least 9 inches of snow/sleet. Yup KALY pulled the trigger. I was thinking that Upton would have for us interior folks. Maybe the overnight update they will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Now a little more dry thru 63 with the ULL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: Now a little more dry thru 63 with the ULL Almost nothing this run, long range NAM though in terms of the ULL piece Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Very dry. Northern people do ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Nam is like a non event 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 I wouldn't put too much stock into modeling today. Tomorrow and tomorrow night is when we should pay the most attention 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 29, 2019 Share Posted November 29, 2019 Eventually some light-mod snow at 81 but wouldn't be a big deal. Surface temps in the upper 20s so at least a mood covering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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