Possible Dec 1-3 Winter Storm

[Sn0waddict]

Just now, NYCweatherNOW said:

That’s a great track for heavy snow. 850’s never go above freezing in nyc

What about 900-925? I believe that is where we will have the most issues.

[purduewx80]

1 minute ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

That’s a great track for heavy snow. 850’s never go above freezing in nyc

yes they do. 925 and 850 mb temps are above freezing from ~19Z sunday to ~12Z monday.

[Ericjcrash]

Just now, Sn0waddict said:

What about 900-925? I believe that is where we will have the most issues.

Surface is torched until good banding Monday afternoon anyway. 40° warm

[NYCweatherNOW]

3 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

What about 900-925? I believe that is where we will have the most issues.

Yes initially the overrunning is sleet freezing rain and drizzle some snow showers but Monday when the low is strengthening it cools down all the columns below 0 Celsius and switches everyone to snow and it’s going to come on down on some of those bands, forget about it!

[NYCweatherNOW]

1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said:

Surface is torched until good banding Monday afternoon anyway. 40° warm

We all know how good these models underestimate the CAD

[jm1220]

Like other models, we live or die near the coast on what rotates behind the upper low and we cool back down. It’s nice verbatim for the northern half of LI and even NYC but it could easily be hours of barely accumulating light snow or snow showers. 

[David-LI]

18 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Euro is a big snowstorm for the whole region!

No it’s not. It’s big for MA, not our region.

[Ericjcrash]

3 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

We all know how good these models underestimate the CAD

Not when you have a borderline airmass, a warm ocean, and a low tucked in this much.

[weatherpruf]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Like other models, we live or die near the coast on what rotates behind the upper low and we cool back down. It’s nice verbatim for the northern half of LI and even NYC but it could easily be hours of barely accumulating light snow or snow showers. 

Yes but based on experience a realistic scenario would probably see areas near me getting a few inches ( 1-3, maybe 4 ) and more interior areas getting a lot more. Wound't be a bad start to things really, around these parts.

[HeadInTheClouds]

Just now, David-LI said:

No it’s not. It’s big for MA, not our region.

It could be big 40+ miles N and W of NYC which is this region. 

[USCG RS]

Not when you have a borderline airmass, a warm ocean, and a low tucked in this much.

Tbh - assuming this track verifies - it will depend on how quickly the LP closes off. Sure we torch front end, but of we close off, we crash just as quickly and with the energy involved, these bands can add up quickly.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

[sussexcountyobs]

Does anyone know what the surface temps here in NE Sussex county NJ will be for the duration of this event? 

Snow wise it's really not a big deal whether we get 4-6" or 8-12". That's handled no problem. I'm just concerned about if we get alot of ice accretion. 

[Ericjcrash]

Just now, USCG RS said:

Tbh - assuming this track verifies - it will depend on how quickly the LP closes off. Sure we torch front end, but of we close off, we crash just as quickly and with the energy involved, these bands can add up quickly.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk
 

I fully agree you can get a good band to do damage Monday afternoon but people saying NYC stays subfreezing at 850 and 925 is completely misguided. 

[BxEngine]

Not even december and timeouts are already coming. 

[RedSky]

Have to remember these Miller B gems for New England often under perform in forecasted snow on the SW flank, worse the further you go.

. 

 

 

[Ericjcrash]

2 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Does anyone know what the surface temps here in NE Sussex county NJ will be for the duration of this event? 

Snow wise it's really not a big deal whether we get 4-6" or 8-12". That's handled no problem. I'm just concerned about if we get alot of ice accretion. 

Sussex has a legitimate shot at staying near or subfreezing throughout. 

[psv88]

9 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Like other models, we live or die near the coast on what rotates behind the upper low and we cool back down. It’s nice verbatim for the northern half of LI and even NYC but it could easily be hours of barely accumulating light snow or snow showers. 

I think we are good for at least 2-3” here on the backend. We are in a sweet spot for the coastal, all depends how quickly we changeover in Monday. It will be a fun day. 
 

south of SSP May take a bit longer to changeover as usual. But northern half of LI should do ok. 

[Ericjcrash]

Just now, psv88 said:

I think we are good for at least 2-3” here on the backend. We are in a sweet spot for the coastal, all depends how quickly we changeover in Monday. It will be a fun day. 
 

south of SSP May take a bit longer to changeover as usual. But northern half of LI should do ok. 

1-3" is a good call for most of the city/LI at the moment.

[HVSnowLover]

5 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

I fully agree you can get a good band to do damage Monday afternoon but people saying NYC stays subfreezing at 850 and 925 is completely misguided. 

Agree there will absolutely without any real doubt be a period between Sunday afternoon and Monday morning where temps go above freezing at all levels and possibly well above freezing (referring to coastal areas)

[USCG RS]

We never saw a first week of December storm evolution like this before. 
 

That's kind of funny... I literally retweeted this about 10 hrs ago.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

[HVSnowLover]

2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

1-3" is a good call for most of the city/LI at the moment.

Agree 1-3 seems like the best predictive forecast for the metro area with the caveat that Monday COULD surprise.

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

1-3" is a good call for most of the city/LI at the moment.

Agree

[SnowGoose69]

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

Ukie was pretty cold though and the city would be snow once the low pulls away.

You can toss the UKIE snow amounts.  The city would get bombed on that setup. It has 33-35 with rain with dewpoints of like 30.  That’s gonna be snow 

[Ericjcrash]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

You can toss the UKIE snow amounts.  The city would get bombed on that setup. It has 33-35 with rain with dewpoints of like 30.  That’s gonna be snow 

Didn't realize it has surface temps that low. Interesting. Paste job huh?

[qg_omega]

33 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Yes initially the overrunning is sleet freezing rain and drizzle some snow showers but Monday when the low is strengthening it cools down all the columns below 0 Celsius and switches everyone to snow and it’s going to come on down on some of those bands, forget about it!

Very unlikely freezing rain given temps above freezing at the surface

[HVSnowLover]

7 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

You can toss the UKIE snow amounts.  The city would get bombed on that setup. It has 33-35 with rain with dewpoints of like 30.  That’s gonna be snow 

Unless there there is a sneaky warm layer?

[HVSnowLover]

1 minute ago, qg_omega said:

Very unlikely freezing rain given temps above freezing at the surface

Freezing rain will be confined to well inland.

[qg_omega]

For city and coast it’s sleet to heavy rain Sunday night, dry slot most of Monday and hopefully back end 1 to 2 inches of snow is a good call

[HVSnowLover]

Just now, qg_omega said:

For city and coast it’s sleet to heavy rain Sunday night, dry slot most of Monday and hopefully back end 1 to 2 inches of snow is a good call

It may start as snow if the initial dynamics are strong enough. I'm not saying it's going to be anything like November 2018 but I also wouldn't completely write off that first burst as nothing.  

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, qg_omega said:

For city and coast it’s sleet to heavy rain Sunday night, dry slot most of Monday and hopefully back end 1 to 2 inches of snow is a good call

Agree as of now but its not back end snow.