jm1220 Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 On 12/2/2019 at 5:59 PM, SnowGoose69 said: Euro seems like it has feedback issues to me like UKMET with convection off the coast. It puts too much precip over central and east LI in next 6 hours. Its 18-00Z QPF for LI makes no sense to me. It does match the 12KM NAM though for E NJ and the Metro with the idea there will be most of the accumulating snow 23-05Z Expand There is a good amount of convection off the coast right now, maybe it’s really onto something? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 HRRRv4 is still very good. East of the city is going to get in on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 On 12/2/2019 at 6:16 PM, EasternLI said: HRRRv4 is still very good. East of the city is going to get in on this. Expand Pictures or it didn’t happen 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasperk99 Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 On 12/2/2019 at 6:19 PM, jasperk99 said: Expand 6” salvaged for MBY on this run-I’ll gladly take it. I’ll count yesterday as 0.5”-coating of slop that melted last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 Final Forecast Based on Current model trends and current radar trend 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 On 12/2/2019 at 6:18 PM, NYCweatherNOW said: Pictures or it didn’t happen Expand 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 A friend said snow is accumulating on the beach by Point Pleasant 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 On 12/2/2019 at 6:24 PM, NJwx85 said: Final Forecast Based on Current model trends and current radar trend Expand I love this map yanks I think it’s spot on! Good job 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 On 12/2/2019 at 6:12 PM, NYCweatherNOW said: I’ve been saying they need to issue a winter storm warning here. This could end up topping 6 inches for Central Park once sun goes down! Expand Hopefully I go home before it goes down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poker2015 Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 Ugh, looks like screw zone for me in Western Somerset County...grrr 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 On 12/2/2019 at 6:24 PM, NJwx85 said: Final Forecast Based on Current model trends and current radar trend Expand Less than an inch ? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 On 12/2/2019 at 6:27 PM, NYCweatherNOW said: I love this map yanks I think it’s spot on! Good job Expand You might bust low in NYC but it's a good map. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 On 12/2/2019 at 6:28 PM, Poker2015 said: Ugh, looks like screw zone for me in Western Somerset County...grrr Expand A lot of times these narrow snow bands can be hard to forecast at much lead time. By the hour the evolution of this seems to be shifting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 On 12/2/2019 at 6:29 PM, Snow88 said: Less than an inch ? Expand I assume you mean for coastal Queens and Kings County? Yes, don't expect much accumulation at all in those areas. I guess I could have put them in the 1-2" range but either way I think it's right around 1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 And 9 hours later ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 On 12/2/2019 at 6:28 PM, Snow88 said: Hopefully I go home before it goes down. Expand Don't collar anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 On 12/2/2019 at 6:29 PM, Snow88 said: You might bust low in NYC but it's a good map. Expand The only reason why it may not be low is cause right now City isn’t really accumulating because the ground is still warm, temps will drop once sun goes down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 On 12/2/2019 at 6:28 PM, Poker2015 said: Ugh, looks like screw zone for me in Western Somerset County...grrr Expand yeah Im in Belle Mead and not impressed with the rates..its 34 now and the 1.5 or so on the grass is melting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 On 12/2/2019 at 6:31 PM, EasternLI said: And 9 hours later ... Expand U got a clown map for that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 On 12/2/2019 at 6:32 PM, NYCweatherNOW said: The only reason why it may not be low is cause right now City isn’t really accumulating because the ground is still warm, temps will drop once sun goes down Expand We still have ways go go with this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 On 12/2/2019 at 6:32 PM, NYCweatherNOW said: The only reason why it may not be low is cause right now City isn’t really accumulating because the ground is still warm, temps will drop once sun goes down Expand Biggest factors working against greater snowfall in NYC are the marginal temperatures and the fact that the best banding is probably going to be just to the West. That doesn't mean it's not going to snow there. Just don't think it adds up to all that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 screw zone about to move over eastern side of westchester county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 On 12/2/2019 at 6:36 PM, Snowlover11 said: screw zone about to move over eastern side of westchester county. Expand It should back build some. The latest HRRR has pretty consistent banding over your area until around 09z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 On 12/2/2019 at 6:35 PM, NJwx85 said: Biggest factors working against greater snowfall in NYC are the marginal temperatures and the fact that the best banding is probably going to be just to the West. That doesn't mean it's not going to snow there. Just don't think it adds up to all that much. Expand Agreed. I called 2-5" on FB for the city. Would be surprised if we get to 5. This one's got too much time to go to really know for sure, but I don't think the best banding will be here and we're always working against salted pavement. Still think this will be a great early season storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 I am hearing the static on the AM radio from the heavy thunderstorms south of Long Island. There may be some small hail or groupel with the heaviest cells. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 On 12/2/2019 at 6:30 PM, NJwx85 said: I assume you mean for coastal Queens and Kings County? Yes, don't expect much accumulation at all in those areas. I guess I could have put them in the 1-2" range but either way I think it's right around 1". Expand Everyone else has a few inches. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 On 12/2/2019 at 6:39 PM, Wetbulbs88 said: Agreed. I called 2-5" on FB for the city. Would be surprised if we get to 5. This one's got too much time to go to really know for sure, but I don't think the best banding will be here and we're always working against salted pavement. Still think this will be a great early season storm. Expand The streets are starting to get slushy in Manhattan. If we get banding , all the low totals will fail. TWC has upped the totals to 5-8 inches for NYC with the heaviest this evening and the snow ending early Tuesday morning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 On 12/2/2019 at 6:43 PM, Snow88 said: The streets are starting to get slushy in Manhattan. If we get banding , all the low totals will fail. TWC has upped the totals to 5-8 inches for NYC with the heaviest this evening and the snow ending early Tuesday morning. Expand The last time I took advice from TWC I was just about ten years old. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 On 12/2/2019 at 6:44 PM, Wetbulbs88 said: The last time I took advice from TWC I was just about ten years old. Expand Their OCMs who make the forecasts are relatively good. I don't see too many crazy snow forecasts from them inside 48 hours. They are usually conservative 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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