Snowlover11 Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 On 12/2/2019 at 3:48 AM, Snow88 said: Idk why people are quitting on this storm. 2-5 is still very good. Expand because it doesn’t “jackpot” their backyard. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJsnow89 Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 Any word on the cmc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 On 12/2/2019 at 3:49 AM, White Gorilla said: Frustrating storm to try and forecast to say the least! Expand yes WG but now a days it seems they all are 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 LOL yeah people are super tempestuous, not seeing the forest through the trees. This is one run of the GFS, a global model, and we're <24 hours out. Why anyone would take it as gospel at this point is astounding to me. Everyone needs to relax. Clearly we're all going to see snow, and you should be happy if it's anything more than a couple inches in a setup like this at this time of year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 On 12/2/2019 at 3:48 AM, Snow88 said: Idk why people are quitting on this storm. 2-5 is still very good. Expand Because if we analyze every 2-5 inch snowstorm for 46+ pages, this is going to be an exhausting winter. This was always a tricky storm, but never really had an 'epic' side to it. When the primary low heads to the west of Buffalo, we usually have very difficult time getting these to pan out. There are legit severe thunderstorm warnings in western PA. When that happens, it usually causes me to really question what we will get. So far it seems the models are having a difficult time too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingbaus Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 On 12/2/2019 at 4:10 AM, JustinRP37 said: Because if we analyze every 2-5 inch snowstorm for 46+ pages, this is going to be an exhausting winter. This was always a tricky storm, but never really had an 'epic' side to it. When the primary low heads to the west of Buffalo, we usually have very difficult time getting these to pan out. There are legit severe thunderstorm warnings in western PA. When that happens, it usually causes me to really question what we will get. So far it seems the models are having a difficult time too. Expand BINGO. I invested a ton of time to this storm and only to get 1 to 4 inches is very disappointing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 Hrdps has several inches for NYC with more just to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingbaus Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 On 12/2/2019 at 4:17 AM, Snow88 said: Hrdps has several inches for NYC with more just to the west. Expand More than that from the looks of it. Good banding from the parkway east. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 On 12/2/2019 at 4:18 AM, kingbaus said: More than that from the looks of it. Good banding from the parkway east. Expand Just saw the whole run 6+ for NYC west with some 10 inch marks in North NJ. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingbaus Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 On 12/2/2019 at 4:25 AM, Snow88 said: Just saw the whole run 6+ for NYC west with some 10 inch marks in North NJ. Expand Not as good as the 18z though. Looks like it's going to be nowcasting time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 On 12/2/2019 at 4:45 AM, kingbaus said: Not as good as the 18z though. Looks like it's going to be nowcasting time. Expand Not as good for who? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 Gefs doesnt agree with the op It shows the banding over NYC and areas to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 On 12/2/2019 at 4:25 AM, Snow88 said: Just saw the whole run 6+ for NYC west with some 10 inch marks in North NJ. Expand 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 The UKMET definitely came east with the core of the QPF over NYC 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingbaus Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 On 12/2/2019 at 4:47 AM, Snow88 said: Not as good for who? Expand The banding looked stronger and more organized for the area. Still a good hit for the 0z though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 On 12/2/2019 at 4:48 AM, SnowGoose69 said: The UKMET definitely came east with the core of the QPF over NYC Expand Gefs has it over the area while the op run has it over Philly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 you think this system has some moxy to it??? loop it here ...then cool the bellyaching https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-northeast-13-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=data 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 On 12/2/2019 at 4:55 AM, Doorman said: you think this system has some moxy to it??? loop it here ...then cool the bellyaching https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-northeast-13-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=data Expand You did say this will trend east. I like your method. I remember Joe Renken was talking about this on the accuweather forum. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 On 12/2/2019 at 4:59 AM, Snow88 said: You did say this will trend east. I like your method. I remember Joe Renken was talking about this on the accuweather forum.I've never gone against Doorman, nor would I Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 Our deformation snows are developing and expanding already over C PA. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 Add JMA to the models which shifted east tonight 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 HOT off the press.... OPC surface prog.....dead center on the benchmark at 991mb get your shovels ready in the metro 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 Expecting between 1 and 6” here 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 On 12/2/2019 at 5:25 AM, psv88 said: Expecting between 1 and 6” here Expand 0.5 - 8" here lol I love these unpredictable events 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 On 12/2/2019 at 5:21 AM, Doorman said: HOT off the press.... OPC surface prog.....dead center on the benchmark at 991mb get your shovels ready in the metro Expand Doorman can you help a brother out ? I know the 70 40 line is what we look for with storms but are you saying and illustrating that the ULL is getting its act together over the 70- 40 mark ? can you please clarify for the novice / me what you are stating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 On 12/2/2019 at 5:31 AM, Brasiluvsnow said: Doorman can you help a brother out ? I know the 70 40 line is what we look for with storms but are you saying and illustrating that the ULL is getting its act together over the 70- 40 mark ? can you please clarify for the novice / me what you are stating. Expand The ull should track over the benchmark 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 On 12/2/2019 at 5:31 AM, Brasiluvsnow said: Doorman can you help a brother out ? I know the 70 40 line is what we look for with storms but are you saying and illustrating that the ULL is getting its act together over the 70- 40 mark ? can you please clarify for the novice / me what you are stating.No, the sfc LP is over BM.The ULL is about 10k feet in the air and would be to the NW of the LP, unless it is vertically stacked over BM which would mean that the surface LP, h85, h7 and h5 were all in the same place. Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 On 12/2/2019 at 5:31 AM, Brasiluvsnow said: Doorman can you help a brother out ? I know the 70 40 line is what we look for with storms but are you saying and illustrating that the ULL is getting its act together over the 70- 40 mark ? can you please clarify for the novice / me what you are stating. Expand Brasy that is surface low track guidance the ULL upper level low is progged to capture the surface low underneath it and that is shown here 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 On 12/2/2019 at 5:37 AM, Doorman said: Brasy that is surface low track guidance the ULL upper level low is progged to capture the surface low underneath it and that is shown here Which means nyc, LI, se MA, CT and RI are L about to be hit pretty hard brasilSent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 On 12/2/2019 at 5:35 AM, Snow88 said: The ull should track over the benchmark Expand 88 ,thats what I though it showed but I honestly was thinking that the ULL would get its act together farther North than that especially looking at where the system entered ( Norm Macdonald rule ) on the west coast ----I am not complaining I was just confused Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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