CIK62 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 The GFS LAMP has no 32* surface T for the next 24 hours in NYC, so early Tues AM will have to be when any snow might occur. Even Albany gets to 32* over the next 24 hours on the LAMP. https://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/lamp/getlav.pl?sta=KNYC All the models head for 60^ and Rain in 8-10 days anyway. The EURO-EPS flips twice by 30+ degrees in a 4 day period at that time. Fearing a long wait for Arctic air to produce a slam dunk snowstorm around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 9 minutes ago, Snow88 said: The snow was sticking in Manhattan. Anthony just west of SI we never saw any snow at all here all day but had a period of sleet. As I went further west it transitioned ( Somerset CTY ) to heavy rain and that's where its been all night. In fact at the Costco people were watching scenes from the game and asking where they were playing at ( a lot of us don't watch football and didn't know it was a home game for Giants? I think...sorry I don't watch sports except for some soccer so I'm not informed on these things ) because there was obvious snow OTG and there was nothing locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 1 hour ago, purduewx80 said: Severe thunderstorms with the upper low in western PA near Pittsburgh right now. Quite a few small hail reports coming out of that low-topped squall line. This is part of the feature we'll see rotating into NJ and offshore tomorrow morning. This storm evolution and various records will make a good topic for a research paper. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 18 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Hrdps has a nice band over NYC and NJ tomorrow. It then forms other bands and pivoted throughout the whole area which results in several inches for NYC and LI. CnJ gets close to a foot with the huge band 88 and others = the Lower Hudson Valley/ my area still very much in play no ? As is everyone else until the low actually redevelops or am I mistaken Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 7 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: 88 and others = the Lower Hudson Valley/ my area still very much in play no ? As is everyone else until the low actually redevelops or am I mistaken Yes you are 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Just now, Snow88 said: Yes you are Thanks its been a long day and I thought there was something I was missing as the models at least to my eyes look good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 14 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: 88 and others = the Lower Hudson Valley/ my area still very much in play no ? As is everyone else until the low actually redevelops or am I mistaken Everyone is still in the game. It all depends on the actual placement of the low and when the deform bands develop. Any adjustment of 20 -30 miles could move that band 20-30 miles too. Won't know till tomorrow. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 How about coastal Monmouth county? My weather forecast is for rain. No mention of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJsnow89 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said: How about coastal Monmouth county? My weather forecast is for rain. No mention of snow Rain, and lots of it... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: How about coastal Monmouth county? My weather forecast is for rain. No mention of snow You will see snow if the models are right with the bands hitting coastal nj. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZNSTATED Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Temp spiked up to 41 in shirley was 34 with sleet at 3pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Just now, ZNSTATED said: Temp spiked up to 41 in shirley was 34 with sleet at 3pm Thats not good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 39 now here, 0.44” so far, very little of that was frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 I seem to recall (could be wrong) that during pleasant or unpleasant surprises, there was usually 1 model that showed a similar outcome. So, if the furthest east outlier by 0z still doesn't get NYC into the heavy action, then it would take a pretty bad error across the board (not impossible but less likely) if such an outcome transpires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJsnow89 Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 Euro is East, wonder if that brings the best banding further east 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 14 minutes ago, Snowman86 said: Thats not good It’s not a surprise, and doesn’t mean much for the second part of the storm. There’s East wind driving in warm ocean air and will continue until the low starts pulling away. The question is how quick the upper low develops and where it tracks, this will cool us back down. Also, where the associated snow bands form. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 Really wish 6z and 18z euro runs were publicly available. All you hear is "its east" without any reference point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 5 minutes ago, NJsnow89 said: Euro is East, wonder if that brings the best banding further east One might think and HOPE so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 Just now, Brasiluvsnow said: One might think and HOPE so NE guys talking like its canceled lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 NE guys talking like its canceled lol.Likely because there is a legit concern regarding the blocking that this storm is forced more E than NESent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: NE guys talking like its canceled lol. Have to agree with USCG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 12 minutes ago, USCG RS said: Likely because there is a legit concern regarding the blocking that this storm is forced more E than NE Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk LOL west of me, east of me....someone will get something in some direction away from here. One thing I'll say, there has been no shortage of nasty east winds this fall. More than I can ever remember. Prevailing winds are supposed to be westerly, at least that's what the answer was on the old captain's exam. I remember one ol salt saying yeah, send em down here any afternoon during summer and I'll show em "westerly" winds.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 18Z Euro at fast glance without seeing snow maps would seem to have heaviest snows bounded by FWN-CDW or so but it was a rough glance. It seemed less impressive for central to southern NJ and inched its way closer to NYC but not there yet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 How’s MMU looking here? There’s been so much back and forth, it’s been tough to keep track. What’s our timing look like?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 11 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: 18Z Euro at fast glance without seeing snow maps would seem to have heaviest snows bounded by FWN-CDW or so but it was a rough glance. It seemed less impressive for central to southern NJ and inched its way closer to NYC but not there yet Yeah, its ugly city east. NW Jersey and the castskills get crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 What type are amount can we expect for Passaic County in NJ more or less near Clifton area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJsnow89 Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 6 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Yeah, its ugly city east. NW Jersey and the castskills get crushed. Do you have a map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 Just now, NJsnow89 said: Do you have a map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 7 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Yeah, its ugly city east. NW Jersey and the castskills get crushed. This is exactly at odds with another poster. Since I am not interested in looking at models myself, it makes it kinda confusing to see these reports. How could it be ugly if another poster says it looks further east ( either solution misses me so really don't care, just wondering ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted December 2, 2019 Share Posted December 2, 2019 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: That actually shows a significant 4-5 inches northeastern NJ. That would be a decent event for this time of year, but is it counting sleet? and that cutoff looks awfully sharp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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