Possible Dec 1-3 Winter Storm

[HVSnowLover]

This is going to be a brutally hard storm to forecast honestly especially for NYC and points within 50 miles from the city  

[EastonSN+]

4 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

The 2ndary low Is really key . The low is going to stall and spin for a while as seen on the Nam. 

Completely agreed.

Although we can be surprised on the front end if the precip is heavy enough we can see 1 to 3 with it.

Secondary low is a complete wild card.

[NYCweatherNOW]

Nam has warning snows for nyc and stillsnow very hard at 84hour. I think you guys underestimating this stormpotential in my opinion 4-8 for central park is lock

[MJO812]

3k Nam has plenty of sleet for NYC on the onset before some rain and then the main show after. 

 

Snowfall maps already  have 6 inches by hour 84 hours with more snow coming after that. 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Completely agreed.

Although we can be surprised on the front end if the precip is heavy enough we can see 1 to 3 with it.

Secondary low is a complete wild card.

Which storm had a 2nd part to it where NYC  got crushed ? 2010? 2011?

[NEG NAO]

[Ericjcrash]

Just now, Snow88 said:

3k Nam has plenty of sleet for NYC on the onset before some rain and then the main show after. 

 

Snowfall maps already  have 6 inches by hour 84 hours with more snow coming after that. 

Where do you get 3k to 84 hours?

[HVSnowLover]

2 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Nam has warning snows for nyc and stillsnow very hard at 84hour. I think you guys underestimating this stormpotential in my opinion 4-8 for central park is lock

Not a lock but a possibility

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Where do you get 3k to 84 hours?

It only goes out to 60 but the ULL is to the west about to swing through 

 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said:

Not a lock but a possibility

Nothing is a lock this far out

[Ericjcrash]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

H5 on NAM is a thing of beauty.

[NEG NAO]

[Ericjcrash]

3 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

It only goes out to 60 but the ULL is to the west about to swing through 

 

That's what I thought. It seemed like your post referenced an 84hr 3k product. 3k would be a nice sleetfest with the WAA stuff, best we could hope for on the front end.

[Ericjcrash]

Just now, bluewave said:

The snow bands cold get intense with such steep mid-level lapse rates. But we probably have to wait until  the very short term to know exactly where they set up.

 

 

 

Mid levels on the NAM would be fun and equate to a nightmare commute home Monday. Was it a blip or is it onto something?

[purduewx80]

Just now, bluewave said:

The snow bands cold get intense with such steep mid-level lapse rates. But we probably have to wait for the very short term to know exactly where they set up.

See this fcst sounding from HFD for example:

Max lift just above the DGZ but to me this sounding is indicative of a band of 2"+/hour rates. For Monday to deliver, you'll want to see that vort axis and the dry slot at 500mb stay just to your SE.

[EastonSN+]

14 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Which storm had a 2nd part to it where NYC  got crushed ? 2010? 2011?

Jan 2011.

First wave over performed here with 4.5

2nd was crushed with and additional 13.5.

[Ericjcrash]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Jan 2011.

First wave over performed here with 4.5

2nd was crushed with and additional 13.5.

Thundersleet and thundersnow. It was a fun night.

[SnowGoose69]

The closed low on the NAM from 75-84 is just insanely broad.  That means there will be a gigantic dry slot.  You can’t really know details for another 36-48 or so on this but someone will be clocked on the W-NW side of that closed low.  The slow movement isn’t exactly great because if the low ultimately begins occluding everything west of the closed low will shutoff so you want slow movement to maximize snow potential but not so slow the surface low begins to occludes and everything behind the upper low does 

[HVSnowLover]

3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The closed low on the NAM from 75-84 is just insanely broad.  That means there will be a gigantic dry slot.  You can’t really know details for another 36-48 or so on this but someone will be clocked on the W-NW side of that closed low.  The slow movement isn’t exactly great because if the low ultimately begins occluding everything west of the closed low will shutoff so you want slow movement to maximize snow potential but not so slow the surface low begins to occludes and everything behind the upper low does 

Thanks for the explanation, I'm not going to rely on the hour 84 NAM for details, we know the potential is there but we know the details for Monday won't be sniffed out until closer to the event. At this point we are not even entirely sure what the initial wave will look like, will it be a thumping of snow or sleet to rain or will it be mainly rain, how far north will the warm air push get etc. 

 

[bwt3650]

35 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Which storm had a 2nd part to it where NYC  got crushed ? 2010? 2011?

I think that was Early Feb 2011...It snowed during the day, switched to sleet, then the real show started from about 6 until midnight...Two inch an hour rates for most of the evening.  If I remember though, that was the last real snow event that year after an insane six week period.

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

I think that was Early Feb 2011...It snowed during the day, switched to sleet, then the real show started from about 6 until midnight...Two inch an hour rates for most of the evening.  If I remember though, that was the last real snow event that year after an insane six week period.

1/26-27-11. Heavy snow...freezing drizzle. Thunder sleet then heavy snow again

[Ericjcrash]

GFS isn't much different. Tick worse maybe. Meh.

[MJO812]

Just now, Ericjcrash said:

GFS isn't much different. Meh.

Dont use the gfs in this case. The meso models will have a better handle with temps. Gfs has a good low placement but it's too warm.

[USCG RS]

It’s a lock you guys are just newbies

Yeah! Anything showing massive snow several days out is always the correct solution, just ask Twitter and Cranky, because he always backs Twitter with that stuff

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

[jm1220]

15 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

GFS isn't much different. Tick worse maybe. Meh.

This is likely one for the Hudson Valley and inland CT and the rest of us wait for whatever rotates around the low on Monday. Might be some light snow showers mostly or something that can accumulate. Maybe there’s an inch or two on the front end but it quickly gets washed away. It’ll be nice to have a brief period of snow on the ground (hopefully) but unless there are major changes at this point this is one that jackpots I-90. Models are keying in on Boston to around Monticello getting the brunt of the front end snow and wrap around from the low with little warming in between. 

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

Which storm had a 2nd part to it where NYC  got crushed ? 2010? 2011?

2011, Jan 20 IIRC, but that was a blockbuster pattern in the first half of winter. Got 19 inches over here. seemed small compared to Boxing Day....

[Ericjcrash]

Just now, jm1220 said:

This is likely one for the Hudson Valley and inland CT and the rest of us wait for whatever rotates around the low on Monday. Might be some light snow showers mostly or something that can accumulate. Maybe there’s an inch or two on the front end but it quickly gets washed away. It’ll be nice to have a brief period of snow on the ground (hopefully) but unless there are major changes at this point this is one that jackpots I-90. Models are keying in on Boston to around Monticello getting the brunt of the front end snow and wrap around from the low with little warming in between. 

I don't expect anything on the front end whatsoever. Maybe some sleet if we're lucky. Need to cash in on the back end in a NAM-like solution. 

[qg_omega]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

This is likely one for the Hudson Valley and inland CT and the rest of us wait for whatever rotates around the low on Monday. Might be some light snow showers mostly or something that can accumulate. Maybe there’s an inch or two on the front end but it quickly gets washed away. It’ll be nice to have a brief period of snow on the ground (hopefully) but unless there are major changes at this point this is one that jackpots I-90. Models are keying in on Boston to around Monticello getting the brunt of the front end snow and wrap around from the low with little warming in between. 

Sleet to rain for the coast and city, too early to say if wraparound is real or the location of it.  Would be nice to get a coating Monday night

[Ericjcrash]

Just now, weatherpruf said:

2011, Jan 20 IIRC, but that was a blockbuster pattern in the first half of winter. Got 19 inches over here. seemed small compared to Boxing Day....

1/26-27 less snow but a more interesting system IMO

[HVSnowLover]

4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

This is likely one for the Hudson Valley and inland CT and the rest of us wait for whatever rotates around the low on Monday. Might be some light snow showers mostly or something that can accumulate. Maybe there’s an inch or two on the front end but it quickly gets washed away. It’ll be nice to have a brief period of snow on the ground (hopefully) but unless there are major changes at this point this is one that jackpots I-90. Models are keying in on Boston to around Monticello getting the brunt of the front end snow and wrap around from the low with little warming in between. 

Yep basically This never was and isn't a big storm for the immediate metro area. Be happy if Monday surprises but it's December 1st with a primary going to the lakes, its great to see any frozen precip.