Ericjcrash Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 On 11/28/2019 at 8:23 PM, jm1220 said: Jan 25, 2016 says hi. Expand Plenty of negative examples too. It's real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 On 11/28/2019 at 8:08 PM, NYCweatherNOW said: That north trend is a myth u never know Expand It isn't but not every storm will trend north. I'm worried about this one trending south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 On 11/28/2019 at 8:26 PM, Ericjcrash said: Plenty of negative examples too. It's real. Expand In this case it would be a negative trend but it happens more often than not. We really need that block to keep this south because initially the bowling ball primary will try to drive the warm air in and resist redeveloping. Which brings up another trend over the last few years- long lasting primary lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 On 11/28/2019 at 8:26 PM, Snow88 said: It isn't but not every storm will trend north. I'm worried about this one trending south. Expand This one isn’t trending south or north in my opinion...it’s coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 On 11/28/2019 at 8:23 PM, jm1220 said: Jan 25, 2016 says hi. Expand 23-24th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 I need this to drop farther south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 On 11/28/2019 at 8:33 PM, CarLover014 said: I need this to drop farther south Expand You’ll get another 50 Miles because this storm will expand precip in future runs. Nam is next 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 From Steve D: The EPS is what I used as a base for my thoughts since yesterday, and really no change was found. Saw what the ECMWF did. Possible. Sure, but I also noticed some questionable amplification. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 On 11/28/2019 at 8:38 PM, weathermedic said: From Steve D: The EPS is what I used as a base for my thoughts since yesterday, and really no change was found. Saw what the ECMWF did. Possible. Sure, but I also noticed some questionable amplification. Expand Vendor 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 JB just said upper level low is going south of PA., and temps will be 5-7 degrees cooler than last weekend. He expects snow and ice down to Mason/Dixon line. Heaviest amounts north of I78/80. Upwards of 15" north Jersey and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 On 11/28/2019 at 8:51 PM, sussexcountyobs said: JB just said upper level low is going south of PA., and temps will be 5-7 degrees cooler than last weekend. He expects snow and ice down to Mason/Dixon line. Heaviest amounts north of I78/80. Upwards of 15" north Jersey and north. Expand Hard to take him seriously but if you just look right at the OP euro he'd be right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 On 11/28/2019 at 8:56 PM, Ericjcrash said: Hard to take him seriously but if you just look right at the OP euro he'd be right. Expand Euro and eps r the best and ukmet also. Does anyone know the model score cards? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 On 11/28/2019 at 8:56 PM, Ericjcrash said: Hard to take him seriously but if you just look right at the OP euro he'd be right. Expand I'm not a met, and don't do forecasts. Just posting what he said on Twitter, 15 minutes ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 On 11/28/2019 at 8:59 PM, sussexcountyobs said: I'm not a met, and don't do forecasts. Just posting what he said on Twitter, 15 minutes ago. Expand I understand. He always just blurts out the most extreme solution and paints it as gospel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 Upton doesn't seemed that impacted by the latest trends, still predicting a mostly rain event for the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 On 11/28/2019 at 9:01 PM, HVSnowLover said: Upton doesn't seemed that impacted by the latest trends, still predicting a mostly rain event for the city Expand They need more time they’re the national weather and so does everyone else 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 On 11/28/2019 at 9:01 PM, Ericjcrash said: I understand. He always just blurts out the most extreme solution and paints it as gospel. Expand What he said wasn't that extreme, with the extent of the CAD there will be frozen precip down to the Mason Dixon line and their should be significant wintry precip I80 and North. The 15 inches part who knows but probably will happen somewhere, this is a long duration event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 On 11/28/2019 at 9:01 PM, HVSnowLover said: Upton doesn't seemed that impacted by the latest trends, still predicting a mostly rain event for the city Expand They are always late to the party. Every single storm 2 1 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 18z ICON is pushed farther south and colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 It’s coming https://instagram.com/stories/itsedgarrios/2187191747535294278?utm_source=ig_story_item_share&igshid=1whmw73tecy2z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 On 11/28/2019 at 9:10 PM, NYCweatherNOW said: It’s coming https://instagram.com/stories/itsedgarrios/2187191747535294278?utm_source=ig_story_item_share&igshid=1whmw73tecy2z Expand What's coming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 On 11/28/2019 at 9:14 PM, sussexcountyobs said: What's coming? Expand Prob another 5 posting 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 On 11/28/2019 at 9:19 PM, Rjay said: Prob another 5 posting Expand Lol!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 On 11/28/2019 at 9:08 PM, CarLover014 said: 18z ICON is pushed farther south and colder Expand Not at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 On 11/28/2019 at 9:25 PM, Ericjcrash said: Not at all. Expand It was looking decent up to hour 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 On 11/28/2019 at 9:26 PM, CarLover014 said: It was looking decent up to hour 90 Expand On 11/28/2019 at 9:25 PM, Ericjcrash said: Not at all. Expand It got warmer all the way into the Hudson Valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 On 11/28/2019 at 9:28 PM, snowman19 said: It got warmer all the way into the Hudson Valley Expand Until next run Its useless 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 EURO is looking like 10"+ now for City. I hope this is not an inane question: How do you measure a storm that has Snow to Rain to Snow, as we could get here in places? Does someone have to witness the changeover, record the snow board total up to that time, and then witness it going back to Snow, measure that period on a separate snow board, then add them up? Or do you just go by what is left on the snow board when all precipitation ends? Say 5" upfront, which is washed away completely, but then ends with 2" of snow on the board. Is it a 5", 2" or 7" snowstorm, I wonder!? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 On 11/28/2019 at 9:01 PM, HVSnowLover said: Upton doesn't seemed that impacted by the latest trends, still predicting a mostly rain event for the city Expand Because they do not ride the American weather model and emotional rollercoaster. we saw how important high position is this time of year (slightly earlier) with last November’s event. The trends with the high placement have been great today. But at the this lead time all they are, are trends. I’m feeling confident everyone see at least some snow now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted November 28, 2019 Share Posted November 28, 2019 https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=on latest discussion by upton... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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