CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Nah, I feel like any taint here will be after the bulk falls. All set with best fronto staying south. I'd rather flood the warmth, get the lift and take my chances. Not a huge deal, though. I'm interested in the cf for round 2. If it came north, then fronto is north of you. I feel like you are thinking back to last March, but that was a different beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingbaus Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 I think the nam is going to be ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 1, 2019 Author Share Posted December 1, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: If it came north, then fronto is north of you. I feel like you are thinking back to last March, but that was a different beast. NAM screws ne MA a bit in round one this run...not sure why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 1, 2019 Author Share Posted December 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: If it came north, then fronto is north of you. I feel like you are thinking back to last March, but that was a different beast. Not saying I want it north...fine where it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: NAM screws ne MA a bit in round one this run...not sure why. QPF is less everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 1, 2019 Author Share Posted December 1, 2019 This run def. trended north with rd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 1, 2019 Author Share Posted December 1, 2019 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: QPF is less everywhere. 4 here compare to 7-8 n and w. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 1, 2019 Author Share Posted December 1, 2019 This run looks like it sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingbaus Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: This run looks like it sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 1, 2019 Author Share Posted December 1, 2019 Round 1 shifted more to CNE and rd 2 looks like dung. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Round 1 shifted more to CNE and rd 2 looks like dung. No 30" for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 You guys are up at 3:30 am? Well me too. Throw a couple of logs on the Fire and look at the nam. Finally a run that gets some good precipitation up to me. I haven't seen run finish I like this run. But Now I can go back to sleep at least until it GFS. Nighty night 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 1, 2019 Author Share Posted December 1, 2019 18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: No 30" for you. Rd I and 2 are north. Gives me like 6". Don't expect 20", but jesus... File this under the "rusty coat hanger file''.......best part is now some self-righteous, holier than now weenie will lecture me about how I should cherish the 6" of snow, and rejoice that West Deerscrotum, Maine will be able to open an extra ski lift. 18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: No 30" for you. 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 1, 2019 Author Share Posted December 1, 2019 7" over like 4 days. What a test tube snowstorm. There needs to be an executive order issued forbidding the lead engineer of the NAM development team to procreate. #makeamericasmartagain I'd stick with the non-NAM consensus for now. My first call still looks good. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 19.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 I expect 4-7" here, nothing's changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 What a night of model runs. They came around to all our ideas. Big one enroute 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 6z GFS was nice. Close to a big hit round 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: 6z GFS was nice. Close to a big hit round 2. Belk has damaging zr with wording of power outages and 5-11” of snow. I mean that is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Belk has damaging zr with wording of power outages and 5-11” of snow. I mean that is I don't see that. I'm not sold on big amounts above 8" for you because round 1 won't do it. I do think you'll glaze a tad and pelt monday before back to snow. Whether it's light or heavy remains to be seen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Those winter weather advisories do not make any sense to me. How do you have near 12" as the end of the range, and damage to trees and power lines from 0.1'"-0.25" of ice. How is all that only an advisory. Unless it's due to duration and not meeting criteria in 24 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: I don't see that. I'm not sold on big amounts above 8" for you because round 1 won't do it. I do think you'll glaze a tad and pelt monday before back to snow. Whether it's light or heavy remains to be seen. Yeah that’s been our thinking all along. 8-12” but leaning 8-9” with some ice . The caveat is round 2. That’s how we’d hit the upper echelon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yeah that’s been our thinking all along. 8-12” but leaning 8-9” with some ice . The caveat is round 2. That’s how we’d hit the upper echelon Round 1 could easily be a few inches and then pingers. I hate depending on dynamics. I lean conservative with that pike south. Although GFS is good with round 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Those winter weather advisories do not make any sense to me. How do you have near 12" as the end of the range, and damage to trees and power lines from 0.1'"-0.25" of ice. How is all that only an advisory. Unless it's due to duration and not meeting criteria in 24 hrs. I’d assume it’s that 24 hour criteria is 8” and that it’s spread out over close to 48 here, but I definitely LOLed at the 4-11” advisory for CT when I checked BOX this morning. This is what @WxWatcher007 went with yesterday evening for CT, a little more aggressive than consensus, but I think I like it after seeing the overnight runs. Think we should hit the low end pretty easily and there’s opportunity for the high end depending on how round 2 sets up/how strong round 1 is. Still not convinced the dryslot is as dramatic as advertised, although it’s definitely real to some extent. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 HRRR for round 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 It’s the NAM vs everything else for a big event up here. That’s usually not a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Rock and roll Kuchie Koo. Sell or buyers remorse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Models have trended better for Rev imo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Sell that weenie hrrr output Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxFreak11 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Rock and roll Kuchie Koo. Sell or buyers remorse I’d be surprised if we here in RI got those totals. I am expecting a lot of rain so not sure about those snowfall totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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