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Monday 12/2 Threat Disco


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7 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Can u expound on that and how it relates to CCB development late Monday nite 

I just think it may develop a bit quicker to our SW...a more organized sfc low and better inflow south of LI. The RGEM almost has a stinger east of NJ. The arm of mid-level fronto could still swing pretty far northward...even up by me. idk...just kinda brainstorming while looking at a bajillion models and sipping an espresso. I'm not going to pretend to know how it will work out. I can't do millions of calc equations in my head per second. ;)

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2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I just think it may develop a bit quicker to our SW...a more organized sfc low and better inflow south of LI. The RGEM almost has a stinger east of NJ. The arm of mid-level fronto could still swing pretty far northward...even up by me. idk...just kinda brainstorming while looking at a bajillion models and sipping an espresso. I'm not going to pretend to know how it will work out. I can't do millions of calc equations in my head per second. ;)

I'm starting to see more of this in the midlevels since 18z runs today....this is the 00z RGEM at 48...so even before the best of round 2 comes in, and look at how ridiculous that is...like 60 knots of inflow with still excellent thermal packing out to the east and SE of BOS over the ocean....it is hard to imagine there not being a very well defined CCB in that

 

 

Dec1_00zRGEM850_48.gif

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm starting to see more of this in the midlevels since 18z runs today....this is the 00z RGEM at 48...so even before the best of round 2 comes in, and look at how ridiculous that is...like 60 knots of inflow with still excellent thermal packing out to the east and SE of BOS over the ocean....it is hard to imagine there not being a very well defined CCB in that

 

 

Dec1_00zRGEM850_48.gif

I noticed the thickness packing taking on a TROWAL look too. If you look out in the Atlantic, you can draw a line  in the middle of the kink and it goes right into SNE. So some isentropic lift sort of regenerating. 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

I noticed the thickness packing taking on a TROWAL look too. If you look out in the Atlantic, you can draw a line  in the middle of the kink and it goes right into SNE. So some isentropic lift sort of regenerating. 

Yeah the RGEM was the most extreme scenario but the other guidance is starting to show it...like GFS is 40 knots now out of the ENE. If that trend continues, then it's going to bust a lot of forecasts too low. There will be some monster totals on that setup.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm starting to see more of this in the midlevels since 18z runs today....this is the 00z RGEM at 48...so even before the best of round 2 comes in, and look at how ridiculous that is...like 60 knots of inflow with still excellent thermal packing out to the east and SE of BOS over the ocean....it is hard to imagine there not being a very well defined CCB in that

 

 

Dec1_00zRGEM850_48.gif

Yeah...that image shows it well. There was just something about the 12z model suite that left me thinking the pieces on the table weren't spaced right. The midlevels looked decent over NYC and the models kept dropping blobs of heavy QPF around the city with inverted troughing. It just looked like one of those deals where it would get its act together more SW of where it was being progged.

 

We'll see. The Euro will probably roll in and laugh at the rest of the 00z suite.

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