JC-CT Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 15 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Mine? Weathermodels.com Happy with it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Ok Pickles, run total qpf and the last 24 hrs is snow for all. Rest of you go to the BTV site to see how much for ur hood Ray would lose it if he got 18" and Topsfield got 30" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rimetree Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Fascinating developments with this system. Thanks all for the analysis and entertaining pbp. Seems like 8-12 is pretty likely in se nh with decent chance of more barring significant changes in the next 24 hours. Wonder if the pope pulled some strings with the Almighty to get in one of the jackpot areas a la euro. Looking forward to the first good hit of the season. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 1, 2019 Author Share Posted December 1, 2019 19 minutes ago, TheSnowman said: The only Ski area around here is Wachuuuuuusett right? Passing just North. Looks like a lot up T-Rex Footprint. Still Calm. Ray said a month ago “As soon as we hit December it looks good.” Well; he’s done it again. Eh, will see....I win some and lose some.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 The Pope must have overeaten on Thanksgiving. I don't recall seeing any posts from him the last few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 4 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Happy with it? Yes took me awhile to figure it out and you get the lab.weathermodels site too which I really like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Man absolutely pillaged with QPF. Too bad it’s not all snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Man absolutely pillaged with QPF. Too bad it’s not all snow. I like the climo route....going to be some incredible piling up of air as it comes ashore with increased friction due to land...setting up some awesome convergence there north and south of BOS. I think you guys along the coast get a shit ton of QPF out of this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 20 minutes ago, powderfreak said: That’s what makes me think the more southerly suppressed route is the way to go. It was frigid today. We never got out of the teens for temps, even valleys. That has suppression written all over it when it’s that cold leading up to the event. I can’t believe even ORH had a high of 33F....that’s like t-shirt weather. So warm down there. And warmth brings QPF. I was thinking the same thing. 11F on the car thermo as we just got home from Concord, NH. The last I saw, BTV had 4” for MPV. I’d take that all day. Freshen things up and jack up the holiday mood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Man absolutely pillaged with QPF. Too bad it’s not all snow. Toasty run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 00z NAM looks similar tom18z on 1st batch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Eh, will see....I win some and lose some.... We all do. Took you awhile to warm up to this storm. Hopefully you get a great one. Hopefully you have a snowboard now and no measuring on Buick’s or garbage cans, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I like the climo route....going to be some incredible piling up of air as it comes ashore with increased friction due to land...setting up some awesome convergence there north and south of BOS. I think you guys along the coast get a shit ton of QPF out of this. Let’s hope it’s not climo, my 1% chance of 2 inches first 3 days in Dec and all 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 NAM warm layers still lurking. Between 850mb and 700mb its like pockets of warmth floating north. Check out that pocket in upstate NY with like +3C and just absolutely pounding sleet in the western/southern Adirondacks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Let’s hope it’s not climo, my 1% chance of 2 inches first 3 days in Dec and all Well climo for a -4 SD 850mb U-Wind Anomaly storm. We've seen this before, it helps make educated guesses? Go with climo when you have a big closed low going underneath....not some random monthly snow climo . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 TT and pivotal count this as a sleet sounding. I doubt it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: NAM warm layers still lurking. Between 850mb and 700mb its like pockets of warmth floating north. Check out that pocket in upstate NY with like +3C and just absolutely pounding sleet in the western/southern Adirondacks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Well climo for a -4 SD 850mb U-Wind Anomaly storm. We've seen this before, it helps make educated guesses? Go with climo when you have a big closed low going underneath....not some random monthly snow climo . Well climo is based on random stuff, like air temps, water temps. Let’s hope u winds in early Dec produce the same result as early Jan 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 ICON is third in accuracy ahead of the GFS in the past 90 days and seems to have lead the way this whole time as Well.well done. Euro and Uncle are first two in accuracy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 1, 2019 Author Share Posted December 1, 2019 11 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: We all do. Took you awhile to warm up to this storm. Hopefully you get a great one. Hopefully you have a snowboard now and no measuring on Buick’s or garbage cans, lol It didn't take me awhile to warm up to the storm, imI just suspected precip type issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Just now, PaulyFromPlattsburgh said: ICON is third in accuracy ahead of the GFS in the past 90 days and seems to have lead the way this whole time as Well.well done. Icon is garbage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 If this thing pulls a Boxing Day move I’ll expect a rebound ala 2010-11.....I’d willingly give up an early storm for that....if not this winter can GFI 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 rd 2 incoming on nammy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 00z NAM snow map through 10am Monday before Round 2. Just absolutely pounding the ALB area and NY state thruway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 My annual December rant regarding ratters is already written.....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 After reviewing all the model suites, bufkit, soundings etc, this is what i came up with. I will adjust and issue a final call tomorrow morning before flakes start flying if needed. It's on the bearish side of most. Again confidence is low for rd 2. First WAA shot most pick up a couple to a few inches. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ice1972 Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 Just now, powderfreak said: 00z NAM snow map through 10am Monday. Just absolutely pounding the ALB area and NY state thruway. Toss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It didn't take me awhile to warm up to the storm, imI just suspected precip type issues. Pretty sure you were saying it wouldn’t be a blockbuster 2 days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulyFromPlattsburgh Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 1 minute ago, NYCweatherNOW said: Icon is garbage Yet it’s ahead of the GFS in accuracy. And the NAM just trended torward the solution it’s been showing for three days. Extending snows into Syracuse and buffalo now even 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 1, 2019 Share Posted December 1, 2019 take NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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