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Monday 12/2 Threat Disco


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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Post it up

Pickles still has a flip phone, why he asks us to post graphics all the time cuz he is on his phone. Speaking of that, that Tim123 guy dropped by asking for the entire Northeast snow map, so I posted it and he is gone. My ten bucks a month, probably shouldn’t share with peeps who drive by

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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Pickles still has a flip phone, why he asks us to post graphics all the time cuz he is on his phone. Speaking of that, that Tim123 guy dropped by asking for the entire Northeast snow map, so I posted it and he is gone. My ten bucks a month, probably shouldn’t share with peeps who drive by

What are your thoughts for this area to your area?

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4 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

yours and my qpf are pretty similar.  seeing almost all of it over 1" and some of it around 1.4 - 1.5, and I think even one closer to 2".  That should be 10:1 for the first .5 - .75 and then perhaps some 15:1 for the second half.  i think a lot of those 8-12 might change to 12-18.

Gotta be a little wary of the model QPF in situations like this. If you dry out the DGZ, it may be hours racking up "T"s for precip. Models are pretty notorious for spitting out 0.10-0.20" QPF during periods without much support for snow growth.

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

What are your thoughts for this area to your area?

Only for WAA 3 to 6, probably highest for you, maybe 4 to 5 here max. One thing that keeps me thinking though is how shallow that melt layer is on many models sans 3 k NAM, if omega is stout and that washes out you could bang 8

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Only for WAA 3 to 6, probably highest for you, maybe 4 to 5 here max. One thing that keeps me thinking though is how shallow that melt layer is on many models sans 3 k NAM, if omega is stout and that washes out you could bang 8

I’ve been telling folks plan on 8-9” here.. and if round 2 CCB works out a few inches higher. I just don’t understand the low 2-4” forecasts for N CT. Time will tell

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13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Pickles still has a flip phone, why he asks us to post graphics all the time cuz he is on his phone. Speaking of that, that Tim123 guy dropped by asking for the entire Northeast snow map, so I posted it and he is gone. My ten bucks a month, probably shouldn’t share with peeps who drive by

imageproxy.php?img=&key=4c6452e0fc83486c1-4am and 4-7am or something like that (tues am)

next frame (not posted) 7-10 am goes from Bos to Dryslot with a death band in Maine

A3A79B38-AA64-4671-B933-8F9DFFBA78F0.png

DA61FB78-3DC6-4697-A290-4D403CC5196C.png

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3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Gotta be a little wary of the model QPF in situations like this. If you dry out the DGZ, it may be hours racking up "T"s for precip. Models are pretty notorious for spitting out 0.10-0.20" QPF during periods without much support for snow growth.

Still better then hours of virga,  Although we will have some of that until we saturate the column hopefully.

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18 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Pickles still has a flip phone, why he asks us to post graphics all the time cuz he is on his phone. Speaking of that, that Tim123 guy dropped by asking for the entire Northeast snow map, so I posted it and he is gone. My ten bucks a month, probably shouldn’t share with peeps who drive by

What site is that

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5 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

I'll tell you one thing, this is a tremendous antecedent airmass before an early season storm.  No problem sticking here and no problem with plenty of cold air to start the storm, at least up this way.  The cold is still advecting and it is brutal out there.

That’s what makes me think the more southerly suppressed route is the way to go.  It was frigid today.  

We never got out of the teens for temps, even valleys.  That has suppression written all over it when it’s that cold leading up to the event.

I can’t believe even ORH had a high of 33F....that’s like t-shirt weather.  So warm down there.  And warmth brings QPF.

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6 minutes ago, TheSnowman said:

The only Ski area around here is Wachuuuuuusett right?  Passing just North.  Looks like a lot up T-Rex Footprint.  

 

Still Calm.  Ray said a month ago “As soon as we hit December it looks good.”  Well; he’s done it again.  

 

 

Berkshire East has night skiing on weekends.

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14 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

I'll tell you one thing, this is a tremendous antecedent airmass before an early season storm.  No problem sticking here and no problem with plenty of cold air to start the storm, at least up this way.  The cold is still advecting and it is brutal out there.

I was watching the World Cup from Killington and thinking of Jerry and his antecedent birthday air mass

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