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Monday 12/2 Threat Disco


40/70 Benchmark
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Just now, SnoSki14 said:

It slows down and gets down into low 980s. I wonder if models will trend stronger with secondary as we get closer.

Possibly,  it may happen in phases though.  Initial deepening when the front hits the coast and then a second burst of deepening when the ULL moves offshore.  You can already see models pulling the center back to the west when the ULL captures it as well as a convective blob forming near the center.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

One's man's treasure if often his own delusion, as well.

Models love to rush the development of miller B's....like a told a cohort of salivating NYC weenies when the EURO jacked them in Jan 2015.

Yeah I know 14" is ridiculous. I'd take 2" and run. Seen this movie before cut back and back to a 38° rain by 0z runs Sunday. 

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

One's man's treasure if often his own delusion, as well.

Models love to rush the development of miller B's....like a told I cohort of salivating NYC weenies when the EURO jacked them in Jan 2015.

So bitter from jacking...off...so often. You should be in great spirits my friend.

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Just now, Ericjcrash said:

Yeah I know 14" is ridiculous. I'd take 2" and run. Seen this movie before cut back and back to a 38° rain by 0z runs Sunday. 

I'm more concerned with the pressing confluence, than I am the faster occlusion. I know we always hear about the late nw trend due to latent heat from convection, but that is more with miller As.

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Impressive trends the past 24 hours to get us into the action even along the shoreline. But between it still being a bit early in the season and a few days out, my expectations remain tempered here. Fully expecting this to tick back north at some point. Still, nice to have something fun to look at on Turkey Day!

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm more concerned with the pressing confluence, than I am the faster occlusion. I know we always hear about the late nw trend due to latent heat from convection, but that is more with miller As.

Pretty remarkable change on the Euro in regards to the strength of the high. A few days ago it was basically non existent. 

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Just now, moneypitmike said:

North of the pike is already grasping for 11th hour north ticks.  Pope’s early call says southward March will continue.  Midstlantic forum starts to wonder.

Usually when there’s blocking the tracks change less at day 3-4 but they still change.  This whole evolution is going on early enough I think we might see things tick north in the next 24 hours for a few cycles then go back south again close to today’s ideas.  I’m not sure this can really slide much more south 

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