RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Certainly buy the dry slot...just not sure to this extent. Euro was prolonged too. We’ll see if we can wash it away next few cycles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, Greg said: Be cautious with the Euro right now The trends so far have been further south tracks. The EPS ensembles look good but be cautious. I'll be very interesting to see the 00Z Euro. The WAA portion has been a non factor here for several days, Its been about the second part, See above post. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, dryslot said: The WAA portion has been a non factor here for several days, Its been about the second part, See above post. We're in very different locations but in the same boat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, Ericjcrash said: We're in very different locations but in the same boat. Yes, And it has nothing to do with the Euro either, All guidance has had it, Its just been the 3k Nam over the past few cycles that show some of that getting further north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Euro was prolonged too. We’ll see if we can was it away next few cycles. Thankfully we are still like ~40 hours away from when this second part materializes so there is still plenty of wiggle room. If everything continues to align in this direction though with overnight guidance it will be extremely concerning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, Hoth said: Amen, Wolf. And yet I keep getting flashbacks to that static subby hole in southern RI in March '13. It happens. Heck, it happened to me two years ago when Ray got his 30" and I got like 2.5". Let's hope it's wrong. Ya A snow/subsidence Hole is one thing....but the whole State of CT? While the Hudson valley to our west, and NYC to our SW, and NJ to our SW. and western Mass to our north, and Boston to our NE all get whaled? That just seems like the ultimate cosmic Dildo for an entire State-not just a 10 -15 mile Snow hole. I mean absolutely everything would have to go wrong for that to ever happen..everything. And that’s as rare as needing everything To go absolutely right. Even in Boxing Day I did ok relatively speaking with that mess..just never got into the absolute crazy stuff(after being forecasted to) and ended up with about a foot. But this is showing practically nothing for the whole state of CT From rnd 2?? I just don’t buy it with so much uncertainty on the second round. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, WinterWolf said: Ya A snow/subsidence Hole is one thing....but the whole State of CT? While the Hudson valley to our west, and NYC to our SW, and NJ to our SW. and western Mass to our north, and Boston to our NE all get whaled? That just seems like the ultimate cosmic Dildo for an entire State-not just a 10 -15 mile Snow hole. I mean absolutely everything would have to go wrong for that to ever happen..everything. And that’s as rare as needing everything To go absolutely right. Even in Boxing Day I did ok relatively speaking with that mess..just never got into the absolute crazy stuff(after being forecasted to) and ended up with about a foot. But this is showing practically nothing for the whole state of CT From rnd 2?? I just don’t buy it with so much uncertainty on the second round. Thankfully it's the NAM. But all the models seem to have that look to some degree, so let's just hope this keeps ticking SE and gets us back in the goods. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, Hoth said: Thankfully it's the NAM. But all the models seem to have that look to some degree, so let's just hope this keeps ticking SE and gets us back in the goods. But not to that ridiculous degree. Not even close. Western areas(west of the river ) did ok on the Euro and CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Ya A snow/subsidence Hole is one thing....but the whole State of CT? While the Hudson valley to our west, and NYC to our SW, and NJ to our SW. and western Mass to our north, and Boston to our NE all get whaled? That just seems like the ultimate cosmic Dildo for an entire State-not just a 10 -15 mile Snow hole. I mean absolutely everything would have to go wrong for that to ever happen..everything. And that’s as rare as needing everything To go absolutely right. Even in Boxing Day I did ok relatively speaking with that mess..just never got into the absolute crazy stuff(after being forecasted to) and ended up with about a foot. But this is showing practically nothing for the whole state of CT From rnd 2?? I just don’t buy it with so much uncertainty on the second round. Well, it is a small state...... looks like box has some narrow goal posts in mass relative to some of the clown map distributions in their current probability map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 1 hour ago, OceanStWx said: I'm on the desk this evening and tomorrow evening. So I get the last update before flakes fly. Good to know. Decidedly unenthusiastic forecast in terms of large totals in the afternoon package. I was surprised but maybe the SE ticks are going to be real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 I’m eagerly awaiting my phone to chime in with a wsw notification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, mahk_webstah said: Good to know. Decidedly unenthusiastic forecast in terms of large totals in the afternoon package. I was surprised but maybe the SE ticks are going to be real. Echoes of Messenger. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Ya A snow/subsidence Hole is one thing....but the whole State of CT? While the Hudson valley to our west, and NYC to our SW, and NJ to our SW. and western Mass to our north, and Boston to our NE all get whaled? That just seems like the ultimate cosmic Dildo for an entire State-not just a 10 -15 mile Snow hole. I mean absolutely everything would have to go wrong for that to ever happen..everything. And that’s as rare as needing everything To go absolutely right. Even in Boxing Day I did ok relatively speaking with that mess..just never got into the absolute crazy stuff(after being forecasted to) and ended up with about a foot. But this is showing practically nothing for the whole state of CT From rnd 2?? I just don’t buy it with so much uncertainty on the second round. I don't think it can be totally discounted if such an intense materialized...there would be some serious subsidence and with dry air involved and no lift...going to be tough to generate precip. Anyways...let's not forget this front end...we could do extremely well with that. Look at the NAMNEST (18z) for BDL...that's some serious lift into the DZG prior to the flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, moneypitmike said: Well, it is a small state...... looks like box has some narrow goal posts in mass relative to some of the clown map distributions in their current probability map. Small state yes...but not for heavy precip literally all around it , to just miss completely like that NAM run showed. No way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 27 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Don’t think so. Saying what it shows is not a purchase. Not you perse’ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 3 minutes ago, Hoth said: Thankfully it's the NAM. But all the models seem to have that look to some degree, so let's just hope this keeps ticking SE and gets us back in the goods. In fairness statewide the NAM has the best outcome for CT 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said: Good to know. Decidedly unenthusiastic forecast in terms of large totals in the afternoon package. I was surprised but maybe the SE ticks are going to be real. I just think there's no real confidence to get excited in big totals, especially on the northern edge of the watches up here. Either the WAA or deformation could bust for us and leave it an advisory event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, moneypitmike said: I’m eagerly awaiting my phone to chime in with a wsw notification. I have that for my phone as well. When we had a severe thunderstorm and a tornado warning last Summer, the phone alert scared the crap out of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, Sugarloaf1989 said: I have that for my phone as well. When we had a severe thunderstorm and a tornado warning last Summer, the phone alert scared the crap out of me. Amber alerts are the most frightening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 At least i still have my HWO................. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: I just think there's no real confidence to get excited in big totals, especially on the northern edge of the watches up here. Either the WAA or deformation could bust for us and leave it an advisory event. Or both then we would have to cancel winter............... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: I just think there's no real confidence to get excited in big totals, especially on the northern edge of the watches up here. Either the WAA or deformation could bust for us and leave it an advisory event. I'm sure it is the right call for now, but we've had days and days of model runs of over 6 and many many over 12...but I know how this goes in this particular area of Merrimack County. Agree with Brian that this will be interesting to watch develop on radar...surprises that are hopefully good for man. I feel like Jeff and you could have a big upside surprise if it slows and bombs in the GOM. Such fun so early! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 10 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: I’m eagerly awaiting my phone to chime in with a wsw notification. I got one hours ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 At least I can maintain my completely snake bitten CT winter weather vibe from last season right on to 19/20. Let’s keep it curmudgeonly awful in the Constitution State!!! Get pumped!!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 5 minutes ago, dryslot said: Or both then we would have to cancel winter............... I'm full on at the moment because other shifts don't put any thought into the message we're putting out there. Just burn it all down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, OceanStWx said: I'm full on at the moment because other shifts don't put any thought into the message we're putting out there. Just burn it all down. I see some names at the WFO i have not seen before. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 49 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: The NAM seems extremely bizarre on just all levels...especially with the VV's How bout the way its got the surface jumping around .. Does this make meteorological sense? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 6 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: I'm sure it is the right call for now, but we've had days and days of model runs of over 6 and many many over 12...but I know how this goes in this particular area of Merrimack County. Agree with Brian that this will be interesting to watch develop on radar...surprises that are hopefully good for man. I feel like Jeff and you could have a big upside surprise if it slows and bombs in the GOM. Such fun so early! I don't pay too much attention to snow output, because models struggle with QPF, especially when dry slotting occurs. Confidence is definitely highest in the Monadnocks to potentially cash in on both parts of the storm, but otherwise I could see much of our watch not needing warnings, or I could see it expanding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, CTWeatherFreak said: How bout the way its got the surface jumping around .. Does this make meteorological sense? And there’s my point..it’s on crack. Just like yesterday night when it went full on Rambo on the whole area...that ain’t happening either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2019 Author Share Posted November 30, 2019 HOLY $HIT.....that 18z NAM is the best run of my life 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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