MaineJayhawk Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, dryslot said: I guess 7-10" on Dec 1 must really suck. But you reduce it by 1/3 due to the NAM QPF correction formula and you wind up with 4-6", which is admittedly pedestrian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 The NAM seems extremely bizarre on just all levels...especially with the VV's 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, OceanStWx said: I definitely agree that was a real warm outlier, but I did want to highlight one nice thing about the 3km NAM. It explicitly forecasts snow ratios based on hydrometeor type. Snow ratios change according to the rime factor. The higher the rime factor the close to pure sleet you are getting. This example from the latest 3 km shows reflectivity and rime factor. Over NNE there is reflectivity but no rime factor (=pure snow). As you move SW you get more and more riming. > 5 rime factor (cyan into the warm colors) is typically graupel and sleet. The NAM will use snow ratios anywhere from 5:1 for graupel down to 2:1 for sleet. Between the no riming and factor of 5 you get ratios from 3:1 to 8:1. It definitely produces a more realistic looking snowfall map in situations where mixing is forecast to occur. 3K been steadfast at getting some of the WAA snow this far north, Before the SLP takes off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, Hoth said: Garbage. Congrats Lunenberg on 30". What's funny is every model except the Canadian models skip some part of CT. We shall see, rarely are the bands EXACTLY where modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, weatherwiz said: The NAM seems extremely bizarre on just all levels...especially with the VV's Where do you calculate the greatest omega to be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: I definitely agree that was a real warm outlier, but I did want to highlight one nice thing about the 3km NAM. It explicitly forecasts snow ratios based on hydrometeor type. Snow ratios change according to the rime factor. The higher the rime factor the close to pure sleet you are getting. This example from the latest 3 km shows reflectivity and rime factor. Over NNE there is reflectivity but no rime factor (=pure snow). As you move SW you get more and more riming. > 5 rime factor (cyan into the warm colors) is typically graupel and sleet. The NAM will use snow ratios anywhere from 5:1 for graupel down to 2:1 for sleet. Between the no riming and factor of 5 you get ratios from 3:1 to 8:1. It definitely produces a more realistic looking snowfall map in situations where mixing is forecast to occur. Is rime factor only available in AWIPS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 1 minute ago, dryslot said: I guess 7-10" on Dec 1 must really suck. It actually does when you rot for 24hrs in a dry slot while it crushes to your sw, nw, n, ne. At least make it more eventful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, weatherwiz said: Is rime factor only available in AWIPS? No, but I also don't know any website that reproduce it for free. Or paid for that matter. So I've only ever seen it in AWIPS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: There’s a few posters buying the NAM. That’s their choice Don’t think so. Saying what it shows is not a purchase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: 3K been steadfast at getting some of the WAA snow this far north, Before the SLP takes off. I’m enjoying tracking this one. I feel like this system has some tricks up its sleeve...whether that results in something favorable or not for us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, EastonSN+ said: What's funny is every model except the Canadian models skip some part of CT. We shall see, rarely are the bands EXACTLY where modeled. If I were only able to see the model output for my county, I'd probably be delighted to get a few inches in early December. But seeing everyone around me getting thrashed while we choke subsidence makes me feel cosmically punished, like I have some sins i forgot to atone for. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Weak for CT. Everyone else surrounds with 12+ though. Close here a tenth of a mile from the mass border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 6 minutes ago, dryslot said: 3K been steadfast at getting some of the WAA snow this far north, Before the SLP takes off. There's a lot of bust potential on the NE side if that WAA washes out too soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, dendrite said: I’m enjoying tracking this one. I feel like this system has some tricks up its sleeve...whether that results in something favorable or not for us. Looks to be coming together late in the game for us, Moreso here as the SLP looks to bomb in the GOM on the last couple model cycles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 I'm really surprised how warm the HRRR/3km NAM are in low levels across SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 48 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Conservatively. Can always extend as needed Exactly, seasons in seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 2 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: There's a lot of bust potential on the NE side if that WAA washes out too soon. It seems the 3k has been the only model that has had it, Others do not, But looks like the high and the block are not as strong either it seems to allow the further north progression, Still an eternity up here as some of the first flakes don't look to fly for another 36 hrs or so or longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: Close here a tenth of a mile from the mass border I'm not to far south of you, but I'm fine with a few inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: I’m enjoying tracking this one. I feel like this system has some tricks up its sleeve...whether that results in something favorable or not for us. Yup, these larger storms often have some kind of surprise. My favorite is double the snow but the most common one is pingfest showing up early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, dendrite said: Where do you calculate the greatest omega to be? just N or NW of the lows...which on cod it didn't really appear that way. Look at the 700VV on Cod...has the strongest within the 282m contour. Anyways I think its more of a contour thing...looks like cod does every 3m and TT does every 4m...so adding in an extra contour on Cod I suppose it's fine. But regarding the posts about the snow hole in CT...CT sucks on serious subsidence/dry air on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 8 minutes ago, Hoth said: If I were only able to see the model output for my county, I'd probably be delighted to get a few inches in early December. But seeing everyone around me getting thrashed while we choke subsidence makes me feel cosmically punished, like I have some sins i forgot to atone for. Lol right. Im not buying the NAM one bit. Not cuz it skips me(CT), but because it literally gives every other direction/area the goods...but one. I just don’t see that happening. If it skipped CT and places West and NW and SW...and then went over to the NE..that’d be much more believable. But not this stupidity. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 I get the feeling I won't reach WSW criteria here in my part of Enfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, weatherwiz said: just N or NW of the lows...which on cod it didn't really appear that way. Look at the 700VV on Cod...has the strongest within the 282m contour. Anyways I think its more of a contour thing...looks like cod does every 3m and TT does every 4m...so adding in an extra contour on Cod I suppose it's fine. But regarding the posts about the snow hole in CT...CT sucks on serious subsidence/dry air on the NAM Yup and it’s not just the nam showing dry air either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, dryslot said: Looks to be coming together late in the game for us, Moreso here as the SLP looks to bomb in the GOM on the last couple model cycles. That secondary low that forms off of ACY really gets elongated and the isobars get “pulled” back as it tries to escape as the H5 ULL trails well behind. That’s an inv trough look as the PVA moves in aloft to kink those sfc isobars and form a convergence zone. There’s other forcing mechanisms also going on in the midlevels to our SW. Eventually H5 catches up and we get a new sfc low that sorta goes bonkers and gets pulled back in toward ENE like one of those classic blizzard loops before the whole shebang moves out. I just think it’s going to be a mess to figure out after the WAA portion. I’m not really stressing over any solutions...just sitting back and seeing how it’ll play out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Lol right. Im not buying the NAM one bit. Not cuz it skips me(CT), but because it literally gives every other direction the goods...but one. I just don’t see that happening. If it skipped CT and places West and NW and SW...and then went over to the NE..that’d be much more believable. But not this stupidity. Amen, Wolf. And yet I keep getting flashbacks to that static subby hole in southern RI in March '13. It happens. Heck, it happened to me two years ago when Ray got his 30" and I got like 2.5". Let's hope it's wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 12 minutes ago, dryslot said: Looks to be coming together late in the game for us, Moreso here as the SLP looks to bomb in the GOM on the last couple model cycles. 00Z model suite will be very interesting for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, dendrite said: That secondary low that forms off of ACY really gets elongated and the isobars get “pulled” back as it tries to escape as the H5 ULL trails well behind. That’s an inv trough look as the PVA moves in aloft to kink those sfc isobars and form a convergence zone. There’s other forcing mechanisms also going on in the midlevels to our SW. Eventually H5 catches up and we get a new sfc low that sorta goes bonkers and gets pulled back in toward ENE like one of those classic blizzard loops before the whole shebang moves out. I just think it’s going to be a mess to figure out after the WAA portion. I’m not really stressing over any solutions...just sitting back and seeing how it’ll play out. I've been pretty much sold on 4" or so but the ceiling is a lot higher today, So we just continue to watch like i have been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yup and it’s not just the nam showing dry air either. Certainly buy the dry slot...just not sure to this extent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 The NAM is lol.... snows past midday Tuesday out East. It’s almost like 2 separate events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: That secondary low that forms off of ACY really gets elongated and the isobars get “pulled” back as it tries to escape as the H5 ULL trails well behind. That’s an inv trough look as the PVA moves in aloft to kink those sfc isobars and form a convergence zone. There’s other forcing mechanisms also going on in the midlevels to our SW. Eventually H5 catches up and we get a new sfc low that sorta goes bonkers and gets pulled back in toward ENE like one of those classic blizzard loops before the whole shebang moves out. I just think it’s going to be a mess to figure out after the WAA portion. I’m not really stressing over any solutions...just sitting back and seeing how it’ll play out. You can really see the model rip some sort of vorticity or PV through Delmarva and back into SNE at the end of the run. That's when you really see precip rates increased across SNE/CNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now