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Monday 12/2 Threat Disco


40/70 Benchmark
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Just now, Lava Rock said:
2 minutes ago, dryslot said:
Were not seeing much if anything from the WAA snows here when you have a SLP under LI moving West/East, Have to rely on the second part and there's no guarantee that ends up where its modeled right now either, Last thing we need up here is anything going SE.

Screw it, I'm going out to plant grass seed

Should still be able to get fall bulbs in.

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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Lol I was waiting for that.. My daughter I answered it before didnt clear the miss. She changed her flight for free. 

Is this better to see definition guys? I am somewhat color blind so I have to change definition on all these weenie clown maps.

Screenshot_20191130-122513_Gallery.jpg

At least it includes NNE in that map.

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51 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Clown maps didn't even exist yet when I started forecasting. They aren't needed...using QPF and then massaging it based on the other features like midlevels and thermal profiles will get you where you need to be. 10 to 1 isn't a bad place to start but often you need to cut back on the qpf itself...once in a while you adjust upward of it's a really nice midlevel magic look. 

IMO these maps are the primary reason for busted forecasts and I think they're hurting the meteorological community. They got tossed around left and right, the general public gets whiff of them and all hell breaks loose from there. I don't think they're 100% invaluable...they can certainly provide some insight as to where accumulating snow is more likely and perhaps they can pick up on mesoscale features like downslope. 

12 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

This has been my go to. You can adjust ratios too

http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/retro_map.html

I love that about bufkit! It's an incredible tool and very useful b/c if you have a storm where ratios vary you can gauge where to apply higher/lower ratios. 

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What do you need?

Just ask me...its not my focus, but I will if you ask...

I'm good, Really the only clown map i don't have is UKMET, Thanks for posting it, Must of been warm up here if 1.0" qpf only produced 6" based off of that map compared to the Meteo map.

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