ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 4 minutes ago, Russ said: I'm scheduled to fly out of Boston on Sunday night. I live on the west coast, so I am thinking of changing my ticket to Monday night so I can enjoy some snow and get out of town. I dont want to be stuck till Tuesday. Is that a crazy idea? Monday doesnt look too bad for Boston, but I also cant read maps like folks here. Think flights leave Boston on Monday evening? Might want to try and get out late Monday afternoon instead. Monday evening could start snowing again in Boston if things go "correctly" with the ULL. It's prob not until later Monday night there but if you want to be safe I'd try and go out Monday afternoon during the drizzle dryslot. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, ineedsnow said: Yes Please please please!! Like I said earlier, I would rather the front end overperform before we mix or slot. I don't trust backside snow filling back in as the bands tend to pivot and rot and weaken in the valley. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 2 minutes ago, snowdazed said: I go grocery shopping (juice & bread!) and the thread blows up. Are we anywhere near a consensus for the RI area, or are things still all over the place? I would expect a mixed bag. Whereabouts? Burrilville area will be favored. Newport mostly rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 32 minutes ago, snowgeek said: Albany averages an 18”+ storm every 9 years. Last one was 2003. . Really? I thought they got crushed in March '17. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdazed Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: I would expect a mixed bag. Whereabouts? Burrilville area will be favored. Newport mostly rain. Coventry. Smack dab in the middle of the state, but usually seems to get a bit more than the surrounding area due to elevation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 4 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Nice... it updates a bit slower on weatherbell. Very cold at 850/925 but borderline at 700mb so definitely some sneaky warm layers in there. Wouldn't be surprising if there's big aggregates trying to take over the pellets during the biggest lift and then it goes back to a peltfest during that 00-03z timeframe. Even the NAM (not 3km) has a very marginal warm layer at BDL looking at the soundings and it's way up at 750mb. Throw some monster lift up in that zone and it gets washed out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 My daughter's school has just given the option of having kids return on Sunday (instead of Monday). I'm thinking a drive to Marion on Monday morning/noon-ish should be pretty decent. Opinions welcome. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Wouldn't be surprising if there's big aggregates trying to take over the pellets during the biggest lift and then it goes back to a peltfest during that 00-03z timeframe. Even the NAM (not 3km) has a very marginal warm layer at BDL looking at the soundings and it's way up at 750mb. Throw some monster lift up in that zone and it gets washed out. Yeah it's a tough forecast for sure. I have 84 on north in 5-10" that could def be too high. Looks better across the border in Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Here's the RGEM clown map. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2019 Author Share Posted November 30, 2019 RGEM followed the NAM on the south trend, just not the stupid amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 2 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Yeah it's a tough forecast for sure. I have 84 on north in 5-10" that could def be too high. Looks better across the border in Mass. Yeah...5" might be ok as a floor N of 84 because they might actually get 3" of sleet/pixie dust (with the pretty cold 875-950 layer) on top of whatever falls as snow the first 3-4 hours. Then there's the ULL stuff obviously which is a wildcard. For just the front ender stuff though, I could see justifying 3-6 or 4-7 N of 84 but south of border. Not an easy forecast though. It seems like if we could get one shift in either direction it would make that pike to HFD zone a little more clear cut. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mostman Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: RGEM followed the NAM on the south trend, just not the stupid amounts. That's only part 1 right? The silly totals on the NAM were really with part 2 Monday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2019 Author Share Posted November 30, 2019 3 minutes ago, mostman said: That's only part 1 right? The silly totals on the NAM were really with part 2 Monday night. Nice call. Yup. Its too high...no way ORH is getting 17" via WAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 2 minutes ago, mostman said: That's only part 1 right? The silly totals on the NAM were really with part 2 Monday night. Yes--the RGEM only goes to 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 44 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Lets go for year number 17, shall we? Out here west of ALB and elevated...we had a 24" in March of 2017 and a 25" storm in March of 2018. Prior to that we hadn't had a >18" storm since the massive 46" dump in late February 2010. But the airport at ALB is anther world. I know they got a foot tops in 2010 and rain. They might have got one of those 2017/2018 events. Prior to that you'd probably have to go bac to VD 2007 for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 RGEM is a toaster bath for the coastline. <1” Anything before 12/20 is gravy here though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 gfs colder but more tucked in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 This is one of the more bizarre thermal profile modelings I can remember. Do models take into account latent heat release at all? I know sneaky warm layers aren't uncommon but some of what's being modeled is a little head scratching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Here's another look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 18 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I would expect a mixed bag. Whereabouts? Burrilville area will be favored. Newport mostly rain. It's our time to jack, just like days or yore. Snow where it's supposed to snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdazed Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, moneypitmike said: Here's another look. Always that sharp gradient right over my hometown. Yeesh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Really? I thought they got crushed in March '17.17” 3/14-3/15/17. Last one was 12/6-7 2003. That is at the airport of course, so surrounding areas get more. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 13 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Here's the RGEM clown map. And that doesn’t include round 2. Round 2 looks good so far on the 12z sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 17 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: My daughter's school has just given the option of having kids return on Sunday (instead of Monday). I'm thinking a drive to Marion on Monday morning/noon-ish should be pretty decent. Opinions welcome. I would go Monday if I could 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 14 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Here's the RGEM clown map. On the edge here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 It may rip in the NW Hills Monday evening per the GFS...pretty damn good soundings with some great lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Out here west of ALB and elevated...we had a 24" in March of 2017 and a 25" storm in March of 2018. Prior to that we hadn't had a >18" storm since the massive 46" dump in late February 2010. But the airport at ALB is anther world. I know they got a foot tops in 2010 and rain. They might have got one of those 2017/2018 events. Prior to that you'd probably have to go bac to VD 2007 for them. VD2007 was 16.8”. Sleet and dry slot tickled us. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 RGEM on meteocentre...for the pike crowd, save it...all downhill from here 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 30, 2019 Share Posted November 30, 2019 Just now, weatherwiz said: It may rip in the NW Hills Monday evening per the GFS...pretty damn good soundings with some great lift. Agreed. It's a hellacious dryslot in this. Beware the dryslot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2019 Author Share Posted November 30, 2019 Looks a little slower on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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